Short-term load forecasting using bayesian neural networks learned by Hybrid Monte Carlo algorithm

This paper presents a short term load forecasting model based on Bayesian neural network (shorted as BNN) learned by the Hybrid Monte Carlo (shorted as HMC) algorithm. The weight vector parameter of the Bayesian neural network is a multi-dimensional random variable. In learning process, the Bayesian neural network is considered as a special Hamiltonian dynamical system, and the weights vector as the system position variable. The HMC algorithm is used to learn the weight vector parameter with respect to Normal prior distribution and Cauchy prior distribution, respectively. The Bayesian neural networks learned by Laplace algorithm and HMC algorithm and the artificial neural network (ANN) learned by the BP algorithm were used to forecast the hourly load of 25 days of April (Spring), August (Summer), October (Autumn) and January (Winter), respectively. The roots mean squared error (RMSE) and the mean absolute percent errors (MAPE) were used to measured the forecasting performance. The experimental result shows that the BNNs learned by HMC algorithm have far better performance than the BNN learned by Laplace algorithm and the neural network learned BP algorithm and the BNN learned by HMC has powerful generalizing capability, it can welly solve the overfitting problem.     

FD—140型高灵敏测氡仪及其应用

FD—140型高灵敏测氡仪用于测量氡的浓度,测氡灵敏度可达15mBq/m~3 min。该仪器可用于普查与勘探铀矿床,也可用于找石油、煤、金、地下水和地震预报以及地质构造调查等方面。     

项目管理在IT企业中的推广与应用

现阶段传统的管理模式还是一些中小型IT企业的主要管理方式。这种方式导致很多中小型IT企业发展的新旧项目成功率都很小。所以,在当前情况下,要大大加强项目管理的涉及度,使之进入中小IT企业。从而,提高中小企业的核心竞争力。那么什么IT企业,何为项目管理,项目管理在IT企业中的推广应用,以及二者之间的相互关系就是我们研究的重要课题。     

表面工程技术在导弹武器装备维修中的应用

本文主要介绍铝/F_(46),协合涂层新技术、复合电刷镀Ni—PTFE新工艺、DJB—823电接触保护剂及三防电子器件绝缘清漆在二炮导弹武器装备维修中的应用。     

Extraction of Metal(Ti,V,Mo)-oxyl Cations by Monoacidic Phosphates and Phosphonates

The extraction of TiO~(2+),VO~(2+),VO_2~+ and MoO_2~(2+)by HDEHP,HEHEHP and HDTMPP was studiedrespectively.The orders of extraction ability for the three extractant systems are as follows:for TiO~(2+),VO~(2+):HDEHP>HEHEHP>HDTMPP;for VO_2~+, MoO_2~(2+):HDEHP< HEHEHP< HDTMPP.The experimental results were discussed from the point of view of extractant structures.     

基于B/S模式的CAPP制造资源管理系统的实现

许多企业内部建有Internet／Intranet网来加强企业内部的信息集成和共享。顺应这一趋势，文章提出了基于B／S模式的CAPP制造资源管理系统，利用网络编程语言VBScript实现制造资源的共享。文章首先通过和C／S模式比较，概述了B／S模式的优势，并建立了适合于动态变化环境的制造资源模型。最后结合应用实例探讨了利用ASP、ADO、SQL和ODBC技术实现制造资源的远程知识查询的理论和方法。     

浅谈流化床干燥器布风板的设计

介绍流化床干燥器所用各种形式布风板的结构。并对其使用情况作了分析。特别对高温布风板的形式进行了探讨。     

气流床水煤浆气化技术的应用现状及开发进展

气流床水煤浆气化是煤高效、洁净利用的一项关键技术。简述了具有代表性的气流床水煤浆气化技术的应用现状及开发进展,并分析了影响水煤浆气化的主要因素,如烧嘴、耐火砖、进料系统、激冷环等,提出了一些改进措施。     

制药工程新专业的建设

我校药学院在创办和建设制药工程专业过程中,通过对国内外该学科的调研和有关专家的论证,确立了制药工程专业的性质、内涵、定位、培养目标、业务要求、专业知识结构与课程体系和创新能力培养,并且在学科建设方面也取得了一些进展.     

远红外丙纶的性能研究

系统测试了采用共混纺丝法研制出的远红外丙纶及织物的物理机械性能、远红外发射性能、保温性能、耐洗涤性能和抗菌性能，并对用远红外丙纶加工的护腿的医疗保健作用进行了临床检测。进而讨论了远红外丙纶及织物的医疗保健作用机理。