Uncertainty Matters: Computer Models at the Science–Policy Interface

The use of computer models offers a general and flexible framework that can help to deal with some of the complexities and difficulties associated with the development of water management plans as prescribed by the Water Framework Directive. However, despite the advantages modelling presents, the integration of information derived from models into policy is far away from being trivial or the norm. Part of the difficulties of this integration is rooted in the lack of confidence policy makers have on the incorporation of modelling information into policy formulation. In this paper we examine the reasons for this apparent lack of confidence and explore how some tools, presently in use, address this problem. We conclude that public confidence in models is highly dependent on the way uncertainties are addressed and suggest possible directions of action to improve the current situation. Four real case studies illustrate how computer models have been used in The Netherlands for carrying out management plans at regional and national scale. We suggest that the solution to integrate modelling information into policy formulation lies on both the modelling and the policy-making communities.     

The confounded nature of angry men and happy women.

Findings of 7 studies suggested that decisions about the sex of a face and the emotional expressions of anger or happiness are not independent: Participants were faster and more accurate at detecting angry expressions on male faces and at detecting happy expressions on female faces. These findings were robust across different stimulus sets and judgment tasks and indicated bottom-up perceptual processes rather than just top-down conceptually driven ones. Results from additional studies in which neutrally expressive faces were used suggested that the connections between masculine features and angry expressions and between feminine features and happy expressions might be a property of the sexual dimorphism of the face itself and not merely a result of gender stereotypes biasing the perception. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)     

Enteric viral infections of calves and passive immunity

At least eight viruses have been identified, four within the last 5 yr, that produce diarrhea and pathological intestinal lesions in experimentally inoculated calves. Coronavirus and rotavirus frequently are associated with the neonatal calf diarrhea syndrome, but the etiologic role of the newly identified viruses is undefined. All diarrheal viruses replicate within small intestinal epithelial cells, resulting in variable degrees of villous atrophy. Immunity against these viral infections, therefore, must be directed toward protection of the susceptible intestinal epithelial cells. Because most of these viral infections occur in calves less than 3 wk of age, passive lactogenic immunity within the gut lumen plays an important role in protection. This report reviews methods of boosting rotavirus antibody responses in bovine mammary secretions and analyses of passive and active immunity in calves supplemented with colostrum and challenged by rotavirus. Results indicate rotavirus immunoglobulin G1 antibodies in colostrum and milk were elevated after intramuscular and intramammary vaccination of pregnant cows with an Ohio Agricultural Research and Development Center rotavirus vaccine but not after intramuscular immunization with a commercial rota-coronavirus vaccine. Feeding colostrum from intramuscular plus intramammary immunized cows to newborn calves challenged by rotavirus prevented diarrhea and shedding of rotavirus.     

Sharpening our axes [systems engineering application]

To improve a company's 'chopping' power it is necessary to apply systems engineering principles to 'project systems' and take the time to plan effectively, to reflect upon what it is that is being done and thereby improve the way things are done. This article takes a systems view of the project and applies systems engineering principles to project management. Projects (complex systems) are needed to create deliverables (which are also complex systems) and investing in the former will be more than paid back in the latter. It is our aim here to clear up some misunderstandings about systems engineering and its role within a complex project and to highlight the need for businesses to take time to improve their processes in the context of good systems engineering practice.     

Alcoholism at the time of injury among trauma center patients: Vehicular crash victims compared with other patients

A structured in-depth interview employing standardized criteria was used to determine the prevalence of lifetime and current alcohol dependence (alcoholism) in unselected consecutive patients admitted to a regional Level I trauma center. Of 629 patients, 157 (25.0%) were current alcoholics at the time of injury. An additional 87 (13.8%) were diagnosed as lifetime non-current alcoholics. There was no significant difference in the rates of current alcohol dependence among patients injured in vehicular crashes (23.5%), other unintentional trauma victims (29.3%), and those injured as a result of violence (24.6%). Of BAC + (blood alcohol concentration positive) patients, 54.5% were current alcoholics. However, 14.4% of alcohol-negative patients were also diagnosed as alcohol dependent.     

Mathematical modelling of a reverse flow reactor with catalytic surface dynamics

This paper studies a system of partial differential equations modelling the behaviour of a reverse flow reactor. For the parameters appropriate for the oxidation of ammonia on a Pt/Al₂O₃ catalyst in a typical laboratory set-up, the reactor may be split into regions where approximate formulas that determine its behaviour are deduced. Numerical calculations are presented and can be used to compare with the analytical formulas. The physical insight gained from the asymptotic analysis suggests a new switching strategy which is the subject of numerical experiments. The switching strategy is found to be efficient at minimising the ammonia exiting the reactor after reversal.