Long range peak demand forecasting under conditions of high growth

An extended logistic model with a varying asymptotic upper bound for long-range peak demand forecasting is described. The model has been applied to a typical fast growing system, the Saudi Consolidated Electric Company. The forecasts are compared with actual demands and with those obtained from classical forecasting methods. The model gave relatively accurate peak demand forecasts compared with other classical methods. The model with a single load observation is capable of producing several peak demand forecasts corresponding to different levels of maximum temperature and various levels of social activity. The forecasts produced by the model were also stable irrespective of the length of the ex-post simulation period     

Displacement control crack-growth instability in an elastic-softening material

The criterion for crack growth instability in an elastic-softening material that is subjected to displacement control loading conditions is examined. A theoretical analysis of the model of a solid containing two symmetrically situated deep cracks and with tensile loading of the remaining ligament, defines the criterion for crack growth instability. The criterion is expressed in terms of the material's softening characteristics and the solid's geometrical parameters. The analysis covers the complete spectrum of material behaviour from the case where the softening zone is very small to the case where instability does not occur until the softening zone traverses the ligament between the crack tips.     

Infant death due to congenital abnormalities presenting as a homicide

A perinatal death presenting as a possible homicide is reported. An infant was born with a cleft palate, but without other apparent abnormality, to a mother who experienced postpartum depression. The infant apparently died during feeding. A death certificate, giving cot death and congenital malformations as the causes of death, was rejected by the registering authority. The possibility of homicide was considered. Exhumation and autopsy showed multiple abnormalities, including congenital heart disease and the karyotype of DiGeorge's anomaly. The case highlights the value of the autopsy in such cases, and emphasizes the role of cytogenetics, even after considerable postmortem delay.     

Influence of labour on epidermal growth factor receptor distribution of the human chorion at term gestation

Ten patients with biopsy verified chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection were treated with oral ribavirin at a dose of 1,000-1,200 mg per day in two divided doses for 12 weeks. Serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels and hepatitis C viral ribonucleic acid (RNA) levels in serum were followed prior to, during, and 12 weeks posttreatment. ALT levels decreased significantly in all patients during therapy from a mean level of 3.21 mukat/l (range 1.22 to 7.79) before, to 1.25 mukat/l (range 0.78 to 2.04) at the end of treatment (P < 0.005). Hereafter, relapse to pretreatment levels was seen within 12 weeks after treatment stop. The hepatitis C viral RNA levels decreased from a mean 10 log titer of 4.1 (range 1-6) before treatment to 3.4 (range 1-5) at treatment stop. Five patients did not change their HCV RNA titers during treatment. Twelve weeks posttreatment only 3 patients had lower titers than prior to treatment. We conclude that oral ribavirin seems to reduce the viral load, at least temporarily, in some patients with chronic viremic HCV infection. Further studies are needed to evaluate fully the effect of oral ribavirin on chronic HCV infection.     

Commitment as a moderator of the goal-performance relation: A case for clearer construct definition.

A central assumption in the goal theory literature is that the degree of commitment to the assigned goal moderates the effectiveness of the goal-setting procedure. However, attempts to empirically verify commitment's moderating role have generally met with failure, calling into question either widely used measures of goal commitment, the moderating assumption itself, or both. Three studies are described that address this issue. Results indicate that the moderation assumption is valid but is only relevant to 1 of 3 closely related motivational concepts that are commonly discussed under the heading of commitment: prechoice attitudes, the subsequent choice of a personal goal, and the maintenance of that choice. It is suggested that a view of commitment that more clearly distinguishes these concepts can provide a better guide for future empirical research than can existing viewpoints. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Determination of the radiation sensitivity of the stromal cells in the murine long-term bone marrow culture by measuring the induction and rejoining of interphase chromosome breaks

PURPOSE: To determine the radiosensitivity of bone marrow stromal cells, the rate of interphase chromosome breakage and rejoining of stromal cells in the murine long term bone marrow culture and of human skin fibroblasts were compared. METHODS AND MATERIALS: The cells were irradiated with doses up to 6 Gy and repair times up to 6 hr were investigated. After induction of premature chromosome condensation by fusing the cells with mitotic HeLa cells, the number of interphase chromosome fragments was counted. RESULTS: The number of radiation induced breaks was found to be not significantly different for both cell types with 6.16 +/- 0.26 breaks per Gray for the fibroblasts and 5.96 +/- 0.20 breaks per Gray for the stromal cells. A significant difference was observed in the repair rate. The fibroblasts rejoined 39.6% of the breaks induced initially during the first hour after irradiation and 5.6 +/- 1.84 breaks remained unrejoined after 6 hr, while the stromal cells were able to rejoin 63.2% in 1 hr and had 2.05 +/- 0.07 breaks unrejoined after 6 hr. CONCLUSION: If the well substantiated assumption is made, that the capacity to repair DNA double strand breaks or interphase chromosome breaks is correlated with the cellular radiosensitivity, this finding indicate, that murine bone marrow stromal cells are more radioresistant than human skin fibroblasts.     

Luminol and lucigenin amplified chemiluminescence and lipidperoxidation with brain microsomes from rats during ontogenetic development

During the 1980s, the ecologic association of conjugated estrogens with endometrial cancer changed from positive to negative in a prepaid health plan. During the same period, use of progestins increased dramatically. We investigated whether the latter increase could explain the reversal of the estrogen-cancer association. Endometrial cancer incidence was estimated from cases recorded in the health plan registry divided by the number of women over age 45 years. Conjugated estrogens usage was measured as milligrams prescribed per woman per year and progestin was measured as tablets per woman per year, both based upon pharmacy records. Graphical and regression methods were used to analyze the resulting ecologic data. In a log-linear regression of incidence on conjugated estrogens and medroxyprogesterone usage, estrogen usage had a strong positive association with incidence, while medroxyprogesterone had a strong negative association with incidence. The change in the direction of the ecologic association between estrogen and endometrial cancer that occurred in 1984 continued until 1993, suggesting that the decline in endometrial cancer incidence and concomitant increase in conjugated estrogens usage since 1984 is explained by the increasing use of progestins. The data are entirely consistent with the hypothesis that progestins can protect against most of the excess risk conferred by conjugated estrogens, although the ecologic nature of the data prohibits drawing further inferences.     

Percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG) in upper gastrointestinal tract occlusion in gynecologic oncology

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Intestinal obstruction is a frequent cause of death in patients suffering from gynecological cancer, who have undergone multiple treatment in the form of surgery and/or chemotherapy and/or radiotherapy. The usual form of rescue treatment consists in the use of a nasogastric tube to administer support and analgesic treatment. Surgical gastrostomy is not a viable proposition in these extremely weak patients with large masses compressing and displacing the stomach. Percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG), a technique first introduced for nutritional purposes, can be beneficially used to achieve decompression in these patients. METHODS: PEG was performed in a total of 67 patients who had already undergone multiple treatment for abdominal-pelvic neoplasia with upper gastrointestinal obstruction, who could no longer be operated and who had a life expectancy of less than sixty days. In three cases positioning was not possible owing to the lack of transillumination of the gastric and abdominal wall. 54/64 patients had previously undergone at least two operations. RESULTS: Esophagogastric lesions were found in 29% of patients, some of which were attributed to the nasogastric tube. Symptomatic wellbeing was obtained in 76.5% a few days after PEG. PEG remained in situ from 4 to 472 days. Slight peristomal infection was observed in 9% of cases. In seven cases it was necessary to add octreotide owing to the reappearance of symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: PEG is relatively easy to use and allows obstructive symptoms to be resolved in the majority of patients. Special medical skills are not required and the patient may be easily managed at home together with support therapy and pain management. Once PEG has been performed, it is possible to take fluids and semi-liquid foods, offering the patient a chance to taste flavours which have often been forgotten. PEG enables neoadjuvant chemotherapy to be performed in patients with previously untreated intestinal obstruction.