Propagation of Data Error and Parametric Sensitivity in Computable General Equilibrium Models

While computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are a well-established tool in economic analyses, it is often difficult to disentangle the effects of policies of interest from that of the assumptions made regarding the underlying calibration data and model parameters. To characterize the behavior of a CGE model of carbon output with respect to two of these assumptions, we perform a large-scale Monte Carlo experiment to examine its sensitivity to base year calibration data and elasticity of substitution parameters in the absence of a policy change. By examining a variety of output variables at different levels of economic and geographic aggregation, we assess how these forms of uncertainty impact the conclusions that can be drawn from the model simulations. We find greater sensitivity to uncertainty in the elasticity of substitution parameters than to uncertainty in the base-year data as the projection period increases. While many model simulations were conducted to generate large output samples, we find that few are required to capture the mean model response of the variables tested. However, characterizing standard errors and empirical probability distribution functions is not possible without a large number of simulations.     

Effect of clove extract pretreatment and drying conditions on lipid oxidation and sensory discrimination of dried omena (Rastrineobola argentea) fish

Sun‐drying is a low‐cost, low‐technology fish preservation method frequently employed in developing areas. However, the process promotes lipid oxidation and its associated undesired flavours and odours. This study investigated low‐technology solutions for impact on lipid oxidation and sensory attributes of oven‐dried omena fish (Rastrineobola argentea). Two oven‐drying conditions and four doses of clove water extract ‘dip’ pretreatments were studied in a complete factorial design. Lipid oxidation in dried fish was assessed by TBARS, peroxide value and fatty acid analysis by GC‐FID. Results showed that soaking in 10 g L^?1 clove water extract for 1 h and oven‐drying at 150 °C × 30 min significantly reduced TBARS and peroxide values in omena fish by 77% and 79%, respectively, and polyene index showed improved retention of long‐chain polyunsaturated fats, compared to original drying condition. Lastly, panellists of a triangle test were able to discriminate between biscuits made with the modified and original dried fish.     

A review of the potential water quality impacts of tidal renewable energy systems

The continued increase in the demand for energy, growing recognition of climate change impacts, high oil and gas prices and the rapid depletion of fossil fuel reserves have led to an increased interest in the mass generation of electricity from renewable sources. Traditionally, this has been pursed through riverine hydropower plants, with onshore wind systems growing steadily in popularity and importance over the years. Other renewable energy resources, which were previously not economically attractive or technically feasible for large scale exploitation, are now being considered to form a significant part of the energy mix. Amongst these, marine and in particular, tidal energy resource has become a serious candidate for undergoing mass exploitation in the near future, particularly in places with a tidal range of 4 m or more. Tidal renewable energy systems are designed to extract the kinetic or potential energy flow and convert it into electricity. This can be achieved by placing tidal stream turbines in the path of high speed tidal currents or through tidal range schemes, where low head turbines are encapsulated in impoundment structures, much like in low head riverine hydropower schemes. It is thought that these systems, when implemented at scales required to generate substantial amounts of electricity, have the potential to significantly alter the tidal flow characteristics, which could have knock-on impacts on the hydro-environment. This review gathers together knowledge from different research areas to facilitate an evaluation of the potential hydro-environmental impacts of tidal renewable energy systems, with a particular focus on water quality. It highlights the relevance of hydro-environmental modelling in assessing potential impacts of proposed schemes and identifies areas where further research is needed. A case study is presented of recent modelling studies undertaken for the Severn Estuary.     

Comparison of an effect-model-law-based method versus traditional clinical practice guidelines for optimal treatment decision-making: application to statin treatment in the French population

Healthcare authorities make difficult decisions about how to spend limited budgets for interventions that guarantee the best cost-efficacy ratio. We propose a novel approach for treatment decision-making, OMES—in French: Objectif thérapeutique Modèle Effet Seuil (in English: Therapeutic Objective–Threshold–Effect Model; TOTEM). This approach takes into consideration results from clinical trials, adjusted for the patients'' characteristics in treatment decision-making. We compared OMES with the French clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) for the management of dyslipidemia with statin in a computer-generated realistic virtual population, representing the adult French population, in terms of the number of all-cause deaths avoided (number of avoided events: NAEs) under treatment and the individual absolute benefit. The total budget was fixed at the annual amount reimbursed by the French social security for statins. With the CPGs, the NAEs was 292 for an annual cost of 122.54 M€ compared with 443 with OMES. For a fixed NAEs, OMES reduced costs by 50% (60.53 M€ yr⁻¹). The results demonstrate that OMES is at least as good as, and even better than, the standard CPGs when applied to the same population. Hence the OMES approach is a practical, useful alternative which will help to overcome the limitations of treatment decision-making based uniquely on CPGs.