Uncertainty in macroeconomic policy-making: art or science?

Uncertainty is pervasive in economic policy-making. Modern economies share similarities with other complex systems in their unpredictability. But economic systems also differ from those in the natural sciences because outcomes are affected by the state of beliefs of the systems' participants. The dynamics of beliefs and how they interact with economic outcomes can be rich and unpredictable. This paper relates these ideas to the recent crisis, which has reminded us that we need a financial system that is resilient in the face of the unpredictable and extreme. It also highlights how such uncertainty puts a premium on sound communication strategies by policy-makers. This creates challenges in informing others about the uncertainties in the economy, and how policy is set in the face of those uncertainties. We show how the Bank of England tries to deal with some of these challenges in its communications about monetary policy.     

Nanoconfinement of spider silk fibrils begets superior strength, extensibility, and toughness

Silk is an exceptionally strong, extensible, and tough material made from simple protein building blocks. The molecular structure of dragline spider silk repeat units consists of semiamorphous and nanocrystalline β-sheet protein domains. Here we show by a series of computational experiments how the nanoscale properties of silk repeat units are scaled up to create macroscopic silk fibers with outstanding mechanical properties despite the presence of cavities, tears, and cracks. We demonstrate that the geometric confinement of silk fibrils to diameters of 50 ± 30 nm is critical to facilitate a powerful mechanism by which hundreds of thousands of protein domains synergistically resist deformation and failure to provide enhanced strength, extensibility, and toughness at the macroscale, closely matching experimentally measured mechanical properties. Through this mechanism silk fibers exploit the full potential of the nanoscale building blocks, regardless of the details of microscopic loading conditions and despite the presence of large defects. Experimental results confirm that silk fibers are composed of silk fibril bundles with diameters in the range of 20-150 nm, in agreement with our predicted length scale. Our study reveals a general mechanism to map nanoscale properties to the macroscale and provides a potent design strategy toward novel fiber and bulk nanomaterials through hierarchical structures.     

Utilization of municipal solid waste incineration ash in Portland cement clinker

Municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) ash is used in part as raw materials for cement clinker production by taking advantage of the high contents of SiO₂, Al₂O₃, and CaO. It is necessary for environmental reasons to establish a material utilization system for the incineration waste ash residue instead of disposing these ashes into landfill. The aim of this paper is to study the feasibility of replacing clinker raw materials by waste ash residue for cement clinker production. MSWI bottom ash and MSWI fly ash are the main types of ashes being evaluated. The ashes were mixed into raw mixture with different portions of ash residue to produce cement clinker in a laboratory furnace at approximately 1400°C. X-ray diffraction and X-ray florescence techniques were used to analyze the phase chemistry and chemical composition of clinkers in order to compare these ash-based clinkers with commercial Portland cement clinker.     

Human-robot synchrony: flexible assistance using adaptive oscillators

We propose a novel method for movement assistance that is based on adaptive oscillators, i.e., mathematical tools that are capable of extracting the high-level features (amplitude, frequency, and offset) of a periodic signal. Such an oscillator acts like a filter on these features, but keeps its output in phase with respect to the input signal. Using a simple inverse model, we predicted the torque produced by human participants during rhythmic flexion-extension of the elbow. Feeding back a fraction of this estimated torque to the participant through an elbow exoskeleton, we were able to prove the assistance efficiency through a marked decrease of the biceps and triceps electromyography. Importantly, since the oscillator adapted to the movement imposed by the user, the method flexibly allowed us to change the movement pattern and was still efficient during the nonstationary epochs. This method holds promise for the development of new robot-assisted rehabilitation protocols because it does not require prespecifying a reference trajectory and does not require complex signal sensing or single-user calibration: the only signal that is measured is the position of the augmented joint. In this paper, we further demonstrate that this assistance was very intuitive for the participants who adapted almost instantaneously.     

A mechatronic platform for human touch studies

The development of a mechatronic tactile stimulation platform for touch studies is presented. The platform was developed for stimulation of the fingertip using textured surfaces, providing repeatable tangential sliding motion of stimuli with controlled indentation force. Particular requirements were addressed to make the platform suitable for neurophysiological studies in humans with particular reference to electrophysiological measurements, but allowing a variety of other studies too, such as psychophysical, tribological and artificial touch ones. The design of the mechatronic tactile stimulator is detailed, as well as the performance in tracking reference trajectories. Using microneurography, we recorded from human tactile afferents and validated the platform compatibility with the exacting demands of electrophysiological methods, comprising the absence of spurious vibrations and the lack of relevant electromagnetic interference.     

Analysis of human fibroadenomas using three-dimensional impedance maps

Three-dimensional impedance maps (3DZMs) are virtual volumes of acoustic impedance values constructed from histology to represent tissue microstructure acoustically. From the 3DZM, the ultrasonic backscattered power spectrum can be predicted and model based scatterer properties, such as effective scatterer diameter (ESD), can be estimated. Additionally, the 3DZM can be exploited to visualize and identify possible scattering sites, which may aid in the development of more effective scattering models to better represent the ultrasonic interaction with underlying tissue microstructure. In this study, 3DZMs were created from a set of human fibroadenoma samples. ESD estimates were made assuming a fluid-filled sphere form factor model from 3DZMs of volume 300×300×300 μm. For a collection of 33 independent human fibroadenoma tissue samples, the ESD was estimated to be 111±40.7 μm. The 3DZMs were then investigated visually to identify possible scattering sources which conformed to the estimated model scatterer dimensions. This estimation technique allowed a better understanding of the spatial distribution and variability of the estimates throughout the volume.     

Performance of upgraded JET neutral beam injectors

The JET neutral beam injection (NBI) system is undergoing an upgrade of both beam power and pulse duration, which will be completed in 2011. In order to obtain an early assessment of the performance of the upgraded injectors, two positive ion neutral injectors (PINIs) with modified ion source and accelerator configuration were installed on Octant 8 Neutral Injector Box and successfully commissioned in summer 2009. Both PINIs were routinely delivering ～2 MW of deuterium neutral beam power during the JET experimental campaign in autumn 2009. These early tests allowed us to predict with confidence that the JET NBI upgrade objective of injecting 34 MW of total deuterium neutral beam power into the JET plasma will be achieved.     

Proteolytic degradation of connectin, a high molecular weight myofibrillar protein, during heating of meat

When homogenised muscle (pH 5·5) was heated at 55°C, connectin was extensively degraded, whereas actin and myosin heavy chains were apparently unaffected. It was concluded that carboxyl proteases (e.g. cathepsin D) were largely responsible, because the breakdown of connectin was inhibited by the addition of pepstatin. When whole muscle samples were heated at 50-70°C, degradation of connectin was inversely related to the ultimate pH of the source muscle, again indicating the role of carboxyl proteases. The greater activity of carboxyl proteases in tissues from older animals was apparently responsible for the more extensive degradation of connectin in muscle from older sheep. Because connectin is extensively degraded in cooked meat, it is unlikely to contribute to meat toughness.