“Objective” low informative priors for Bayesian inference from totally censored Gaussian data

Consider structural elements with random strength that after a suitable transformation has normal distribution with unknown mean μ and known or unknown standard deviation σ. By proof testing of n of these structural elements to a given load level it is observed that none of the elements fail. Given solely this test information the problem is that in order to state anything about either the value of μ when σ is known or about the values of μ and σ when both parameters are unknown, it is necessary to introduce some more information in the form of a suitable prior distribution of the parameters, that is, to use a Bayesian procedure with an informative prior. The paper considers the problem of defining such a prior in an axiomatic (“objective”) way without extending the information represented by the test results by more than very little extra information based on common physical sense. The solution suggested in the paper implies that the posterior distribution of the mean shifts towards larger values when the sample size n increases. However, convergence to a specific value is not obtained as long as no failures are observed among the tests. Moreover it turns out that the posterior distribution of the standard deviation is invariant to the sample size n, that is, no updating of the standard deviation is obtained as long as there are no failures among the tests.     

Effect of organic manure and chemical fertilizer on nitrogen uptake and nitrate leaching in a Eum-orthic anthrosols profile

Distribution and accumulation of NO₃-N down to 4 m depth in the soil profile of a long term fertilization experiment with organic manure and N and P chemical fertilizer were studied after 12 years, wheat and corn were planted in each year. The apparent N recovery decreased with increased N and P fertilizer. NO₃-N was mainly accumulated in 0-1.2 m depth of the soil profile with a maximum of 34 mg N kg-¹ for the treatment with 120 kg N and 26 kg P per hectare, a secondary maximum of 7.2 mg N kg-¹ was found at 3.2 m depth in the same treatment. NO₃-N accumulation in the soil profile was minimized in the trials with highest manure application. Nitrogen that was not recovered was leached as NO₃-N deeper than 4 m depth, was immobilized in the profile or was lost by denitrification. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Technological challenges for hydrocarbon production in the Barents Sea

Technological challenges for hydrocarbon production in the Barents Sea relate mainly to the climatic conditions (ice and icebergs), to the relatively deep water of the area, and to the distance to the market for transportation of gas. It is suggested that environmental conditions must be carefully mapped over a sufficiently long period to get reliable statistics for the area.Published in Gidrotekhnicheskoe Stroitel'stvo, No. 8, pp. 29–34, August, 1994.     

四川移动数据网络总体建设思路探讨

通过对省CMNET骨干网、IP城域数据网、IP宽带数据接入网3个主要网络层次的工程建设定位、技术特点、建设原则进行的分析,总结出在目前市场竞争条件下进行移动数据网络建设的相关思路。     

Sorption Equilibrium in Relation to the Spatial Distribution of Molecules — Application to Desorption of Potato

An analysis of desorption isotherms for potato shows the following probable qualities in the water-potato system. In the natural state the water is bound rather strongly due to loss of rotational degrees of freedom in the sorbed molecules, which is caused by small molecular voids in the cellulose structure. This structure therefore is formed as a uniformly cross bound state of the OH-groups. This state prevails up to a certain temperature, above which a reaction sets in, where OH bonds are successively broken, giving possibility for a partial rotation of sorbed molecules. In the range of lower moisture content the cellulose structure is changed into a crystalline state as in wood, although the degree of crystallinity is lower, which is the probable reason why the statistical fluctuations in the isotherms are greater for potato than for wood.     

Extended second moment algebra as an efficient tool in structural reliability

It is claimed that any reliability measure defined in connection with a limit state theory of a high reliability technological system is a purely formal comparative measure of safety. It only makes sense to make comparisons within classes of “similar” technological systems which are all accessible to the same theory. Interpretation of calculated formal failure probabilities as predictions of real failure rates are generally not justified.     

Chemical composition of arctic snow: concentration levels and regional distribution of major elements

At the end of the northern winter 1996/1997, 21 snow samples were collected from 17 arctic localities in Norway, Sweden, Finland, Svalbard, Russia, Alaska, Canada, Greenland and Iceland. Major element concentrations of the filtered (0.45 mum) melted snow indicate that most samples are consistent with a diluted seawater composition. Deviations from this behaviour indicate additional SO(4)(2-) and Cl(-) relative to seawater, suggesting a minor contribution from (probably local) coal combustion emissions (Alaska, Finland, Sweden, Svalbard). The samples with the highest Na and Cl(-) content (Canada, Russia) also have higher Na/SO(4)(2-) and Cl(-)/SO(4)(2-) ratios than seawater, suggesting a slight contamination from (probably local) deicing activities. Local soil or rock dust inputs in the snow are indicated by 'excess' Ca contents (Alaska, Svalbard, Greenland, Sweden). No overall relationship was found between pH (range: 4.6-6.1) and total or non-seasalt SO(4)(2-) (NSS), suggesting that acidification due to long-range transport of SO(2) pollution is not operating on an arctic-wide scale. In a few samples (Alaska, Finland, Sweden, Svalbard), a significant proportion (>50%) of SO(4)(2-) is non-marine in origin. Sources for this non-marine SO(4)(2-) need not all be found in long-range atmospheric transport and more likely sources are local industry (Finland, Sweden), road traffic (Alaska) or minor snow-scooting traffic (one Svalbard locality). A few samples from northern Europe show a relatively weak trend of decreasing pH with increasing NO(3)(-).