Wind speed forecasting using the NARX model,case: La Mata,Oaxaca, México

This study presents the generation of a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model (NARX) for wind speed forecasting in a 1 h, in advance horizon. A sample of meteorological data of hourly measurements taken during a year was used for the generation of the model. The variables measured were as follows: wind speed, wind direction, solar radiation, pressure, and temperature. All measurements were taken by the Comision Federal de Electricidad (CFE) at La Mata, in the state of Oaxaca, Mexico. Using the Mahalanobis distance, the sample of data was treated in order to detect deviated values in multivariable samples. Later on, the statistical Granger test was conducted to establish the entry variables that would be incorporated into the model. Since solar radiation was the only one determined as the cause for wind speed, it was the variable used in the configuration of the model. To compare the NARX model, a one-variable, nonlinear autoregressive model (NAR) was also generated. Both models, the NARX and the NAR were compared against the persistence model by means of applying the statistical error forecast measurements of mean absolute error, mean squared error, and mean absolute percentage error to the test data. The results showed the NARX model as the most precise of the three, reflecting the importance of the inclusion of additional meteorological variables in the wind speed forecasting models.     

LEKIDs Developments for mm-Wave Astronomy

Microwave Kinetic Inductance Detectors (MKIDs) have recently drawn the attention of the low-temperature detectors community. Easy fabrication, high sensitivity, small time constants and most notably the intrinsic capability to frequency multiplexing open new possibilities to applications that need very large array sizes and/or high speed read-out. Lumped Element Kinetic Inductance Detectors (LEKIDs) designed and fabricated in our collaboration have already shown good on sky performances, but new developments are needed for future multi-thousands-pixels instruments. In this contribution we present such ongoing developments: a new LEKIDs design, optimized to be dual polarization sensitive; use of new materials such as TiN in order to reach better signal to noise ratios; new solutions to minimize the cross-talk between pixels in order to achieve a better control of the resonance positions in frequency space. We discuss present lab measurements of the optical performances and recent improvements of the read-out electronics.     

Using Bounded Diameter Minimum Spanning Trees to Build Dense Active Appearance Models

We present a method for producing dense active appearance models (AAMs), suitable for video-realistic synthesis. To this end we estimate a joint alignment of all training images using a set of pairwise registrations and ensure that these pairwise registrations are only calculated between similar images. This is achieved by defining a graph on the image set whose edge weights correspond to registration errors and computing a bounded diameter minimum spanning tree. Dense optical flow is used to compute pairwise registration and a flow refinement method to align small scale texture is introduced. Further, given the registration of training images, vertices are added to the AAM to minimise the error between the observed flow fields and the flow fields interpolated between the AAM mesh points. We demonstrate a significant improvement in model compactness.     

Changes in bioactive compounds and antioxidant activity during convective drying of murta (Ugni molinae T.) berries

Murta (Ugni molinae T.) berries were air‐dried at five temperatures (40, 50, 60, 70 and 80 °C), and the changes in β‐carotene, phenolic acids, total phenolic and flavonoid contents and antioxidant capacities (DPPH and ORAC) were investigated. The berries showed a high content of β‐carotene, which decreased during drying temperature between 40 °C and 80 °C. Free and bound phenolic acids were also determined, showing gallic acid to be the prevalent phenolic acid. Total phenolic and flavonoid contents in the dried berries showed a higher decrease at lower temperature due to longer drying time. The radical‐scavenging activity also showed higher antioxidant activity at higher drying temperatures (70–80 °C) than at lower drying temperatures (40–50 °C). Total phenolic content (TPC) and flavonoids showed good correlation with antioxidant capacity. Murta berries proved to be an excellent source of antioxidants and bioactive compounds and are therefore a potential ingredient for new functional food products.     

Dynamic test planning: a study in an industrial context

Testing accounts for a relevant part of the production cost of complex or critical software systems. Nevertheless, time and resources budgeted to testing are often underestimated with respect to the target quality goals. Test managers need engineering methods to perform appropriate choices in spending testing resources, so as to maximize the outcome. We present a method to dynamically allocate testing resources to software components minimizing the estimated number of residual defects and/or the estimated residual defect density. We discuss the application to a real-world critical system in the homeland security domain. We describe a support tool aimed at easing industrial technology transfer by hiding to practitioners the mathematical details of the method application.     

Synthesis of probabilistic models for quality-of-service software engineering

An increasingly used method for the engineering of software systems with strict quality-of-service (QoS) requirements involves the synthesis and verification of probabilistic models for many alternative architectures and instantiations of system parameters. Using manual trial-and-error or simple heuristics for this task often produces suboptimal models, while the exhaustive synthesis of all possible models is typically intractable. The EvoChecker search-based software engineering approach presented in our paper addresses these limitations by employing evolutionary algorithms to automate the model synthesis process and to significantly improve its outcome. EvoChecker can be used to synthesise the Pareto-optimal set of probabilistic models associated with the QoS requirements of a system under design, and to support the selection of a suitable system architecture and configuration. EvoChecker can also be used at runtime, to drive the efficient reconfiguration of a self-adaptive software system. We evaluate EvoChecker on several variants of three systems from different application domains, and show its effectiveness and applicability.     

Molds and Resists Studies for Nanoimprint Lithography of Electrodes in Low-Voltage Polymer Thin-Film Transistors

A low-cost patterning of electrodes was investigated looking forward to replacing conventional photolithography for the processing of low-operating voltage polymeric thin-film transistors. Hard silicon, etched by sulfur hexafluoride and oxygen gas mixture, and flexible polydimethylsiloxane imprinting molds were studied through atomic force microscopy (AFM) and field emission gun scanning electron microscopy. The higher the concentration of oxygen in reactive ion etching, the lower the etch rate, sidewall angle, and surface roughness. A concentration around 30 % at 100 mTorr, 65 W and 70 sccm was demonstrated as adequate for submicrometric channels, presenting a reduced etch rate of 176 nm/min. Imprinting with positive photoresist AZ1518 was compared to negative SU-8 2002 by optical microscopy and AFM. Conformal results were obtained only with the last resist by hot embossing at 120 °C and 1 kgf/cm² for 2 min, followed by a 10 min post-baking at 100 °C. The patterning procedure was applied to define gold source and drain electrodes on oxide-covered substrates to produce bottom-gate bottom-contact transistors. Poly(3-hexylthiophene) (P3HT) devices were processed on high-κ titanium oxynitride (TiO _x N _y ) deposited by radiofrequency magnetron sputtering over indium tin oxide-covered glass to achieve low-voltage operation. Hole mobility on micrometric imprinted channels may approach amorphous silicon (～0.01 cm²/V s) and, since these devices operated at less than 5 V, they are not only suitable for electronic applications but also as sensors in aqueous media.     

Relationship between solar radiation and surface distribution of vegetation in Fildes Peninsula and Ardley Island,Maritime Antarctica

The aim of this work is to produce a simplified vegetation map of ice-free areas of the Fildes Peninsula (FP) and Ardley Island (AI) thought object-oriented classification using a QuickBird satellite image and to evaluate the influence of the global solar radiation (GSR) over the vegetation distribution. The vegetation data were generated from multiresolution segmentation using the panchromatic and infrared layers, and for the classification we calculated the normalized vegetative difference index (NVDI) and the green NVDI. Two classes were created – Lichen and Moss Cushion SubFormation and Moss Subformation – with 48 vegetation samples collected on surveys during the austral summers of 2008 and 2009. We used a kappa index to evaluate the classification efficiency using 100 sampled points obtained in austral summer of 2013. The GSR was estimated, and in order to evaluate the effect of meteorological phenomena and cloudless, we measured the GSR using a net radiometer model CNR4 installed in FP between 2014 and 2016. The estimate of GSR was done for seasons of 2015, in order to estimate the light compensation point and the saturation point for the plant communities in FP and AI. The kappa index was 0.73 and the global accuracy was 0.78, showing consistency between the classification and ground truth. The area was covered by vegetation in FP was 16.7% and in AI is 59.1%. The vegetation cover is distributed differently at FP and AI, and our results suggest GSR plays an important role in vegetation distribution and these tendencies could be related to greater GSR demand by mosses when compared to lichens.