Laws of accident causation

This paper suggests that the influence of a number of important risk factors on road accidents can be described in terms of a few highly general statistical regularities that determine the shape of the relationship between the risk factors and accident occurrence. The statistical regularities are referred to as "laws of accident causation". The following "laws" are proposed: Instances of all these laws, as well as a discussion of to how the laws can be tested empirically, are given. It is hoped that proposing a few basic mechanisms that can summarise the impact of a number of risk factors will stimulate research that may lead to a more general theory of accident causation.     

The stability of long-term trends in the number of traffic fatalities in a sample of highly motorised countries

This paper examines the stability of long-term trends in the number of traffic fatalities in eight highly motorised countries: Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, The Netherlands, Great Britain, Australia and The United States. In all these countries, the number of traffic fatalities reached a peak around 1970-1972 and has since declined. The decline has, however, been irregular and fairly long periods of stagnation or even increase in the number of fatalities have occurred in all countries. A stable trend is defined in this paper as a trend that remains unchanged and therefore can be used to successfully predict the future number of fatalities by means of extrapolation. It is concluded that the trends towards fewer fatalities in the countries selected have not been stable and that even trend lines that fit past trends very closely are usually worthless for predictive purposes. An attempt was made to identify factors influencing long-term trends by fitting negative binomial regression models to fatality data. Although some of the models fitted the data marginally better than simple trend lines, these models are not necessarily more useful for predicting future trends than simple trend lines, since using the models for prediction requires that future changes in all explanatory variables must be predicted. The chief lesson is that past trends do not provide a reliable basis for predicting future developments with respect to the number of traffic fatalities.     

Sources of uncertainty in estimated benefits of road safety programmes

National road safety programmes have been developed in many motorised countries. Some of these programmes contain estimates of the safety benefits that were expected to be realised if the programmes were fully implemented. When these estimates are compared to actual outcomes, it is not uncommon to find large differences. This paper argues that differences between the predicted and actual results of road safety programmes could be the result of a large, but generally unrecognised, uncertainty inherent in estimates of the effects of such programmes. Ten sources of uncertainty are identified and briefly described. The possibility of describing these sources of uncertainty numerically, and of estimating their joint contribution, is discussed. It is concluded that at the current state of knowledge, it is not possible to meaningfully estimate the total uncertainty inherent in road safety programmes. The prospects of reducing uncertainty by means of research are discussed.     

Factors influencing safety in a sample of marked pedestrian crossings selected for safety inspections in the city of Oslo

This paper reports an analysis of factors influencing safety in a sample of marked pedestrian crossings in the city of Oslo, Norway. The sample consists of 159 marked pedestrian crossings where a total of 316 accidents were recorded during a period of five years. The crossings were selected for inspection because of they were, for various reasons, regarded as sub-standard. The sample of crossings is therefore not representative of all pedestrian crossings in Oslo. Factors influencing the number of accidents were studied by means of negative binomial regression. Factors that were studied included the volume of pedestrians and vehicles, the number of traffic lanes at the crossing, the location of the crossing (midblock or junction), the type of traffic control, the share of pedestrians using the crossing and the speed of approaching vehicles. The analysis confirmed the presence of a “safety-in-numbers” effect, meaning that an increase in the number of pedestrians is associated with a lower risk of accident for each pedestrian. Crossings located in four-leg junctions or roundabouts had more accidents than crossings located in three-leg junctions or on sections between junctions. A high share of pedestrians crossing the road outside the marked crossing was associated with a high number of accidents. Increased speed was associated with an increased number of accidents.     

Trace Elements in the Si Furnace. Part I: Behavior of Impurities in Quartz During Reduction

Quartz and carbonaceous materials, which are used in the production of silicon as well as electrodes and refractories in the silicon furnace, contain trace elements mostly in the form of oxides. These oxides can be reduced to gaseous compounds and leave the furnace or stay in the reaction products—metal and slag. This article examines the behavior of trace elements in hydrothermal quartz and quartzite in the reaction of SiO₂ with Si or SiC. Mixtures of SiO₂ (quartz or quartzite), SiC, and Si in forms of lumps or pellets were heated to 1923 K and 2123 K (1650°C and 1850°C) in high purity graphite crucibles under Argon gas flow. The gaseous compounds condensed in the inner lining of the tube attached to the crucible. The phases present in the reacted charge and the collected condensates were studied quantitatively by X-ray diffraction (XRD) and qualitatively by Electron Probe Micro Analyzer (EPMA). Contaminants in the charge materials, reacted charge and condensate were analyzed by Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectroscopy (ICP-MS). Muscovite in the mineral phase of quartz melted and formed two immiscible liquid phases: an Al-rich melt at the core of the mineral, and a SiO₂-rich melt at the mineral boundaries. B, Mn, and Pb in quartz were removed during heating in reducing atmosphere at temperature above 1923 K (1650°C). Mn, Fe, Al and B diffused from quartz into silicon. P concentration was under the detection limit. Quartzite and hydrothermal quartz had different initial impurity levels: quartzite remained more impure after reduction experiment but approached purity of hydrothermal quartz upon silica reduction.     

Dimensions of road safety problems and their measurement

This paper identifies nine characteristics of road safety problems that are all in principle amenable to numerical measurement. The nine characteristics identified are:

1. Magnitude

2. Severity

3. Externality

4. Inequity

5. Complexity

6. Spatial dispersion

7. Temporal stability

8. Perceived urgency

9. Amenability to treatment

The purpose of identifying these dimensions and of trying to measure them is to provide a basis for selecting problems for treatment by means of safety programmes. Selecting problems for treatment usually cannot be done on the basis of a single dimension, as it is the mix of characteristics that determine the prospects for successfully treating a problem. It is proposed that amenability to treatment is a function of complexity, perceived urgency and the availability of cost-effective treatments. Speed and speeding is used as an example of a road safety problem to illustrate how the various dimensions can be measured.     

Electron enrichment in 3d transition metal oxide hetero-nanostructures

Direct experimental observation of spontaneous electron enrichment of metal d orbitals in a new transition metal oxide heterostructure with nanoscale dimensionality is reported. Aqueous chemical synthesis and vapor phase deposition are combined to fabricate oriented arrays of high-interfacial-area hetero-nanostructures comprised of titanium oxide and iron oxide nanomaterials. Synchrotron-based soft X-ray spectroscopy techniques with high spectral resolution are utilized to directly probe the titanium and oxygen orbital character of the interfacial region's occupied and unoccupied densities of states. These data demonstrate the interface to possess electrons in Ti 3d bands and an emergent degree of orbital hybridization that is absent in parent oxide reference crystals. The carrier dynamics of the hetero-nanostructures are studied by ultrafast transient absorption spectroscopy, which reveals the presence of a dense manifold of states, the relaxations from which exhibit multiple exponential decays whose magnitudes depend on their energetic positions within the electronic structure.     

Circumpolar study of perfluoroalkyl contaminants in polar bears (Ursus maritimus)

Perfluoroalkyl substances were determined in liver tissues and blood of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from five locations in the North American Arctic and two locations in the European Arctic. Concentrations of perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS), perfluorohexane sulfonate, heptadecafluorooctane sulfonamide, and perfluoroalkyl carboxylates with C(8)-C(15) perfluorinated carbon chains were determined using liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry. PFOS concentrations were significantly correlated with age at four of seven sampling locations, while gender was not correlated to concentration for any compound measured. Populations in South Hudson Bay (2000-2730 ng/g wet wt), East Greenland (911-2140 ng/g wet wt), and Svalbard (756-1290 ng/g wet wt) had significantly (P < 0.05) higher PFOS concentrations than western populations such as the Chukchi Sea (435-729 ng/g wet wt). Concentrations of perfluorocarboxylic acids (PFCAs) with adjacent chain lengths (i.e., C9:C10 and C10:C11) were significantly correlated (P < 0.05), suggesting PFCAs have a common source within a location, but there were differences in proportions of PFCAs between eastern and western location sources. Concentrations of PFOS in liver tissue at five locations were correlated with concentrations of four polychlorinated biphenyl congeners (180, 153, 138, and 99) in adipose tissue of bears in the same populations, suggesting similar transport pathways and source regions of PFOS or precursors.     

Performance of a multi-slit packed bed microstructured reactor in the synthesis of methanol: Comparison with a laboratory fixed-bed reactor

The performance of a multi-slit Integrated Micro Packed Bed Reactor-Heat Exchanger (IMPBRHE) for methanol synthesis from synthesis gas over Cu/ZnO/support commercial catalyst was experimentally investigated from a reaction engineering perspective. Through establishment of a systematic comparison strategy, performance comparison with a laboratory scale tubular Fixed-Bed Reactor (FBR) with three different dilution ratios was made to evaluate the IMPBRHE. The productivity, thermal behavior, activity of body materials, pressure drop and residence time distribution (RTD) of the two reactor types were investigated. The IMPBRHE outperformed the undiluted FBR and gave CO conversions comparable to the diluted FBRs. The main difference is ascribed to superior heat exchange properties of the IMPBRHE, which can improve reactor performance for an exothermic reaction such as methanol synthesis. The results reveal advantages of the IMPBRHE for robust scale up.     

Erratum

Abstract

Southern pine and aspen flakes were acetylated with acetic anhydride alone without cosolvent or catalyst by a simple dip procedure. The new procedure greatly shortens reaction time and simplifies chemical recovery. Acetylation weight gains of 15% to 20% can be achieved in 1 to 3 hours with southern pine flakes and in 2 to 4 hours with aspen flakes.

Flakeboards made from acetylated southern pine or aspen flakes absorbed much less water, both in water-soaking tests and when subjected to humid air, and swelled at a lower rate and to a lower extent than did control boards.

Hygroscopicity of the resulting flakeboards decreased with increased level of wood acetylation. The equilibrium moisture content (EMC) for flakeboards made from acetylated flakes was lower at each relative humidity tested than that of control boards.