A bottom-up assessment and review of global bio-energy potentials to 2050

In this article, a model for estimating bioenergy production potentials in 2050, called the Quickscan model, is presented. In addition, a review of existing studies is carried out, using results from the Quickscan model as a starting point. The Quickscan model uses a bottom-up approach and its development is based on an evaluation of data and studies on relevant factors such as population growth, per capita food consumption and the efficiency of food production. Three types of biomass energy sources are included: dedicated bioenergy crops, agricultural and forestry residues and waste, and forest growth. The bioenergy potential in a region is limited by various factors, such as the demand for food, industrial roundwood, traditional woodfuel, and the need to maintain existing forests for the protection of biodiversity. Special attention is given to the technical potential to reduce the area of land needed for food production by increasing the efficiency of food production. Thus, only the surplus area of agricultural land is included as a source for bioenergy crop production. A reference scenario was composed to analyze the demand for food. Four levels of advancement of agricultural technology in the year 2050 were assumed that vary with respect to the efficiency of food production. Results indicated that the application of very efficient agricultural systems combined with the geographic optimization of land use patterns could reduce the area of land needed to cover the global food demand in 2050 by as much as 72% of the present area. A key factor was the area of land suitable for crop production, but that is presently used for permanent grazing. Another key factor is the efficiency of the production of animal products. The bioenergy potential on surplus agricultural land (i.e. land not needed for the production of food and feed) equaled 215–1272 EJ yr⁻¹, depending on the level of advancement of agricultural technology. The bulk of this potential is found in South America and Caribbean (47–221 EJ yr⁻¹), sub-Saharan Africa (31–317 EJ yr⁻¹) and the C.I.S. and Baltic States (45–199 EJ yr⁻¹). Also Oceania and North America had considerable potentials: 20–174 and 38–102 EJ yr⁻¹, respectively. However, realization of these (technical) potentials requires significant increases in the efficiency of food production, whereby the most robust potential is found in the C.I.S. and Baltic States and East Europe. Existing scenario studies indicated that such increases in productivity may be unrealistically high, although these studies generally excluded the impact of large scale bioenergy crop production. The global potential of bioenergy production from agricultural and forestry residues and wastes was calculated to be 76–96 EJ yr⁻¹ in the year 2050. The potential of bioenergy production from surplus forest growth (forest growth not required for the production of industrial roundwood and traditional woodfuel) was calculated to be 74 EJ yr⁻¹ in the year 2050.     

Flood Risk Management in Flanders: Past Developments and Future Challenges

This paper presents the state of the art of flood risk management in Flanders, a low-lying region in the northern part of Belgium which is vulnerable to flooding. Possible flood hazard sources are not only the many rivers which pass through the Flemish inland, but also the North Sea, which is sensitive to the predicted sea level rise and which can affect large parts of the Flemish coastal area. Due to the expected increase in flood risks in the 21st century, the Flemish government has changed its flood management strategy from a flood control approach to a risk-based approach. Instead of focusing on protection against a certain water level, the objective now is to assure protection against the consequences of a flood, while considering its probability. In the first part, attention is given to the reasoning and functioning of the risk-based approach. Recent improvements to the approach are discussed, as well as the GIS-implementation of the entire model. The functioning of the approach is subsequently demonstrated in two case studies. The second part of the paper discusses future challenges for the flood risk management in Flanders. The driving force behind these challenges is the European Directive on the assessment and management of flood risks, which entered into force in 2007. The Flemish implementation of the directive is discussed and situated in the European landscape. Finally, attention is given to the communication of flood risks to the general public, since the “availability” of flood risk management plans is among the requirements of the EU Floods Directive.     

Uncertainty Matters: Computer Models at the Science–Policy Interface

The use of computer models offers a general and flexible framework that can help to deal with some of the complexities and difficulties associated with the development of water management plans as prescribed by the Water Framework Directive. However, despite the advantages modelling presents, the integration of information derived from models into policy is far away from being trivial or the norm. Part of the difficulties of this integration is rooted in the lack of confidence policy makers have on the incorporation of modelling information into policy formulation. In this paper we examine the reasons for this apparent lack of confidence and explore how some tools, presently in use, address this problem. We conclude that public confidence in models is highly dependent on the way uncertainties are addressed and suggest possible directions of action to improve the current situation. Four real case studies illustrate how computer models have been used in The Netherlands for carrying out management plans at regional and national scale. We suggest that the solution to integrate modelling information into policy formulation lies on both the modelling and the policy-making communities.     

A longitudinal study of children’s performance on simple multiplication and division problems.

The authors investigated the performance on simple multiplication and division problems of 8-year-old children longitudinally to determine the developmental trajectories of both operations. Twice a year, during 2 consecutive school years, children performed a multiplication and division verification task and a number-matching task. All effects that were observed in multiplication performance (problem size, 5, and tie effect and Tie × Size interaction) were also observed in division performance. The developmental trajectories of these effects are described. The authors observed strong developmental parallels between both operations. These results are in line with strongly interconnected memory networks for multiplication and division facts, at least in young children. The results of the number-matching task showed that the interference effect developed differently for multiplication and division, indicating that automatic activation spreading from division operands to division answers is not at work in children of that age. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

In the eye of the beholder: Perceived, actual, and peer-rated similarity in personality, communication, and friendship intensity during the acquaintanceship process.

The authors examined associations of perceived similarity, actual similarity, and peer-rated similarity in personality with friendship intensity during the acquaintanceship process in a naturalistic setting. Self- and peer-rated personality data were gathered from undergraduates (mean age = 18.9) at 5 time points during the first year of university using a round-robin design. Whereas perceived similarity and peer-rated similarity in personality were concurrently associated with more friendship intensity for just-acquainted individuals, actual similarity in personality was not. Further, bidirectional cross-lagged associations between perceived similarity and friendship intensity were found. Peer-rated similarity was also associated with increases in friendship intensity, and this association was mediated by communication frequency. These results indicate that specific types of similarity in personality are differentially associated with friendship intensity during early phases of acquaintanceship in a real-life setting. Further, insight was provided in the direction of causality between similarity and attraction: Perceived and peer-rated similarity seem to breed friendship intensity, whereas friendship intensity seems to breed perceived similarity only. Finally, peers’ expectations seem to affect individuals’ communicative behaviors, which in turn affect friendship formation. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Improved passive-matrix multiplexability with a modular display and UTCP technology

One of the major problems with PM displays is that, depending on the used display material, only a limited number of lines can be multiplexed. We developed a new driving technology and display setup that takes care of that problem. We divided the display into several independent parts or modules. Each module acts as an individual display and has its own display driver. With the use of the new ultra-thin chip package (UTCP), these driver chips can be embedded into the (flexible) display itself. This paper explains the setup of the fully modular display and describes the basic structure of the display drivers and its components.     

Insights into the formation of microporous materials by in situ X-ray scattering techniques

Here we demonstrate the power of in situ scattering techniques in the understanding of formation of nanoporous aluminosilicate and aluminophosphate materials. We utilised a number of X-ray techniques, in particular, in situ energy dispersive X-ray diffraction (EDXRD) and small angle and wide angle X-ray scattering (SAXS/WAXS) techniques for this purpose. The in situ SAXS measurements show the formation of homogeneous precursors in the size of ca. 10 nm, prior to the crystallization of LTA. The crystal size is estimated by fitting the SAXS patterns with an equation for a cubic particle, and it is revealed that the final crystal size of the LTA depends on the synthesis temperature. Whereas, the crystallisation of CoAlPO-5, occurs through the formation of poly-dispersed particles with an average size of the precursor particle of ca. 50 nm. Also shown the effect of temperature and structure directing organic cations on the production of CoAlPO-5 materials.     

Strategies to optimize phosphate removal from industrial anaerobic effluents by magnesium ammonium phosphate (MAP) production

BACKGROUND: Owing to more stringent phosphate discharge requirements and the increasing prices of fertilizers, beneficial recovery and reuse of phosphate from industrial anaerobic effluents is becoming an important issue. Phosphate recovery by struvite or magnesium ammonium phosphate (MAP) permits its recycling in the fertilizer industry because struvite is a valuable slow release fertilizer. Two different approaches to MAP crystallization depending on initial levels of phosphate in the wastewaters were tested and compared. RESULTS: For low‐phosphate‐containing anaerobic effluents (<30 mg PO₄^3?‐P L^?1), a novel approach using ureolytic induced MAP formation with MgO addition appeared to be suitable. The residual phosphate concentrations in the effluent ranged from 5 to 7 mg PO₄^3?‐P L^?1 and the separated matter contained residual amounts of Mg(OH)₂. High‐phosphate‐containing anaerobic effluents (100 to 120 mg PO₄^3?‐P L^?1) were treated efficiently using air stripping combined with MgCl₂ and NaOH reagents, yielding residual phosphate levels of 8 to 15 mg PO₄^3?‐P L^?1 and spherical pure MAP crystals of 0.5 to 2 mm. CONCLUSION: Results show that depending on the initial phosphate concentrations in the wastewaters and the ammonium and magnesium levels, the strategy selected for struvite crystallization is a determinative factor in achieving a cost effective technology. Copyright © 2008 Society of Chemical Industry