Improving Rainfall Forecasting Efficiency Using Modified Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (MANFIS)

Rainfall is one of the most complicated effective hydrologic processes in runoff prediction and water management. The adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) has been widely used for modeling different kinds of nonlinear systems including rainfall forecasting. Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS) combines the capabilities of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Fuzzy Inference Systems (FIS) to solve different kinds of problems, especially efficient in rainfall prediction. This paper after reconsidering conventional ANFIS architecture brings up a modified ANFlS (MANFlS) structure developed with attention to making ANFIS technique more efficient regarding to Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (R ²), Root Mean Absolute Error (RMAE), Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR) and computing epoch. The modified ANFIS (MANFIS) architecture is simpler than conventional ANFIS with nearly the same performance for modeling nonlinear systems. In this study, two scenarios were introduced; in the first scenario, monthly rainfall was used solely as an input in different time delays from the time (t) to the time (t-4) to conventional ANFIS, second scenario used the modified ANFIS to improve the rainfall forecasting efficiency. The result showed that the model based Modified ANFIS performed higher rainfall forecasting accuracy; low errors and lower computational complexity (total number of fitting parameters and convergence epochs) compared with the conventional ANFIS model.     

Unglazed Fiberglass Reinforced Polyester Solar Water Heater with Integrated Storage System

Theoretical and experimental investigations on an unglazed solar hot water heater with integrated storage system were conducted. The system was comprised of a collector and storage tank which was integrated into one unit. All parts of the system have been fabricated from fiberglass reinforced polyester (GFRP). The absorber plate has water tubes of semielliptical shape. The width and length of the absorber plate were 1.4 and 1.8?m, respectively. The absorber plate was fabricated from GFPR using a special resin composition that provides good thermal conductivity and absorptivity. The storage tank has a capacity of 496?L. The storage tank is of sandwich construction with a core material made of polyurethane foam that combines stiffness and lightness of the structure with very good thermal insulation properties. An average tank temperature of 53°C was achieved at an average solar radiation level of 700?W/m2 and ambient temperature of 28°C. The thermal efficiencies of the system were evaluated at 48 and 57% for cloudy and clear days, respectively. Transient performance of the system was predicted by solving the mathematical models consisting of energy balance equations of the system that have been converted to finite difference form and solved by a personal computer. The experimental results were in close agreement as has been found with the theoretical predictions.     

Effect of fractional parameter on plane waves of generalized magneto–thermoelastic diffusion with reference temperature-dependent elastic medium

The present paper is concerned with the investigation of disturbances in a homogeneous, isotropic reference temperature-dependent elastic medium with fractional order generalized thermoelastic diffusion. The formulation is applied to the generalized thermoelasticity based on the fractional time derivatives under the effect of diffusion. The analytical expressions for displacement components, stresses, temperature field, concentration and chemical potential are obtained in the physical domain by using the normal mode analysis technique. These expressions are calculated numerically for a copper-like material and depicted graphically. Effect of fractional parameter and presence of diffusion is analyzed theoretically and numerically. Comparisons are made with the results predicted by the fractional and without fractional order in the presence and absence of diffusion.     

Effect of Te additions on the glass transition and crystallization kinetics of (Sb15As30Se55)100−xTex amorphous solids

Differential scanning calorimetry results under non-isothermal conditions of chalcogenide (Sb₁₅As₃₀Se₅₅)_100?xTe_x (where 0 ≤ x ≤ 10 at.%) glasses are reported and discussed. The dependence of the characteristic temperatures “glass transition temperature (T_g), the crystallization onset temperature (T_c) and the crystallization temperature (T_p)” on the heating rate (β) utilized in the determination of the activation energy for the glass transition (E_g), the activation energy for crystallization (E_c), the glass thermal stability (ΔT = T_c ? T_g) and the Avrami exponent (n). The composition dependence of the T_g, E_g, and E_c were discussed in terms of the chemical bond approach, the average heats of atomization and the cohesive energy (CE). The diffractogram of the transformed material shows the presence of some crystallites of AsSb, Sb₄Te₆, As₂Se₃ and Sb₂Se₃ in the residual amorphous matrix.     

Generalized thermo-microstretch elastic medium with temperature dependent properties for different theories

A general model of the equations of generalized thermo–microstretch for a homogeneous isotropic elastic half–space is given. The modulus of elasticity is taken as a linear function of reference temperature. The formulation is applied to generalized thermoelasticity theories, the Lord–?hulman and Green–Lindsay theories, as well as the classical dynamical coupled theory. The normal mode analysis is used to obtain the exact expressions for the displacement components, force stresses, temperature, couple stresses and microstress distribution. The variations of the considered variables through the horizontal distance are illustrated graphically. A comparison is made with the results predicted by the three theories in case of temperature–independent modulus of elasticity.     

The Effect of Bases and Formulation on the Release of Indomethacin from Suppositories

The in vitro release characteristics of indomethacin from different suppository formulations were investigated using a dialysis method. Suppositories containing 100 mg of indomethacin were prepared by the fusion method in a variety of Witepsol and Novata bases with different hydroxyl values. The rate of release of indomethacin was found to be unexpectedly higher from oily bases with low hydroxyl values.

Furthermore, the effect of surface active agents and some excipients commonly used in suppository formulations on the release properties of indomethacin was determined. Colloidal silicon dioxide, sodium lauryl sulphate and cetyl alcohol had a slight effect, on the release of indomethacin, whereas dioctyl sodium sulphosuccinate significantly increased the amount of indomethacin released. White beeswax and Tween-80, however, resulted in a marked decrease in the release of indomethacin.

The in vitro release of indomethacin from five commercially available preparations was also determined using the same method. Suppositories formulated in PEG bases gave better release properties than those in oily bases.     

Coalitional game‐based behavior analysis for spectrum access in cognitive radios

The core of cognitive radio paradigm is to introduce cognitive devices able to opportunistically access the licensed radio bands. The coexistence of licensed and unlicensed users prescribes an effective spectrum hole‐detection and a non‐interfering sharing of those frequencies. Collaborative resource allocation and spectrum information exchange are required but often costly in terms of energy and delay. In this paper, each secondary user (SU) can achieve spectrum sensing and data transmission through a coalitional game‐based mechanism. SUs are called upon to report their sensing results to the elected coalition head, which properly decides on the channel state and the transmitter in each time slot according to a proposed algorithm. The goal of this paper is to provide a more holistic view on the spectrum and enhance the cognitive system performance through SUs behavior analysis. We formulate the problem as a coalitional game in partition form with non‐transferable utility, and we investigate on the impact of both coalition formation and the combining reports costs. We discuss the Nash Equilibrium solution for our coalitional game and propose a distributed strategic learning algorithm to illustrate a concrete case of coalition formation and the SUs competitive and cooperative behaviors inter‐coalitions and intra‐coalitions. We show through simulations that cognitive network performances, the energy consumption and transmission delay, improve evidently with the proposed scheme. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparison Between Anode‐Supported and Electrolyte‐Supported Ni‐CGO‐LSCF Micro‐tubular Solid Oxide Fuel Cells

Two types of micro‐tubular hollow fiber SOFCs (MT‐HF‐SOFCs) were prepared using phase inversion and sintering; electrolyte‐supported, based on highly asymmetric Ce_0.9Gd_0.1O_1.95(CGO) HFs and anode‐supported based on co‐extruded NiO‐CGO(CGO)/CGO HFs. Electroless plating was used to deposit Ni onto the inner surfaces of the electrolyte‐supported MT‐HF‐SOFCs to form Ni‐CGO anodes. LSCF‐CGO cathodes were deposited on the outer surface of both these MT‐HF‐SOFCs before their electrochemical performances were compared at similar operating conditions. The performance of the anode‐supported MT‐HF‐SOFCs which delivered ca. 480 mW cm^–2 at 600 °C was superior to the electrolyte‐supported MT‐HF‐SOFCs which delivered ca. six times lower power. The contribution of ohmic and electrode polarization losses of both FCs was investigated using electrochemical impedance spectroscopy. The electrolyte‐supported MT‐HF‐SOFCs had significantly higher ohmic and electrode polarization ASR values; this has been attributed to the thicker electrolyte and the difficulties associated with forming quality anodes inside the small (<1 mm) lumen of the electrolyte tubes. Further development on co‐extruded anode‐supported MT‐HF‐SOFCs led to the fabrication of a thinner electrolyte layer and improved electrode microstructures which delivered a world leading 2,400 mW cm^–2. The newly made cell was investigated at different H₂ flow rates and the effect of fuel utilization on current densities was analyzed.     

The availability of daylight from tropical skies—a case study of Malaysia

In Malaysia, no long-term daylight data are measured. It was only recently that the need to measure the availability of daylight became urgent when the importance of daylighting in buildings was rediscovered. The hourly daylight availability has been simulated for the Malaysian sky using daylight modelling techniques based on empirical and measured solar irradiation and cloud cover data. This paper presents the techniques involved in producing exterior illuminance data. These data were then compared with measured illuminance at Shah Alam and Bangi, Malaysia. The global illuminance levels are generally high, with values exceeding 80,000 lux at noon during the months when solar irradiation is highest. Even during the months when the ground receives less solar irradiation, the peak illuminance can reach 60,000 lux. Applications and uses of such data are in daylighting design, both for visual and thermal comfort, task illuminance and energy-conscious design of buildings. Recommendations are made at the end of the paper on the various climatic data that are required to be measured for overall daylighting design applications.