Improving class probability estimates for imbalanced data

Obtaining good probability estimates is imperative for many applications. The increased uncertainty and typically asymmetric costs surrounding rare events increase this need. Experts (and classification systems) often rely on probabilities to inform decisions. However, we demonstrate that class probability estimates obtained via supervised learning in imbalanced scenarios systematically underestimate the probabilities for minority class instances, despite ostensibly good overall calibration. To our knowledge, this problem has not previously been explored. We propose a new metric, the stratified Brier score, to capture class-specific calibration, analogous to the per-class metrics widely used to assess the discriminative performance of classifiers in imbalanced scenarios. We propose a simple, effective method to mitigate the bias of probability estimates for imbalanced data that bags estimators independently calibrated over balanced bootstrap samples. This approach drastically improves performance on the minority instances without greatly affecting overall calibration. We extend our previous work in this direction by providing ample additional empirical evidence for the utility of this strategy, using both support vector machines and boosted decision trees as base learners. Finally, we show that additional uncertainty can be exploited via a Bayesian approach by considering posterior distributions over bagged probability estimates.     

The electret effect in cellulose acetate reverse osmosis membranes

The electret potentials developed by reverse osmosis electret membranes help control the undesirable deposition of charged colloidal particles on the membrane surfaces during membrane desalination. These antifouling electret membranes should help prevent the costly flux declines normally associated with deposition of colloidal iron oxides on the reverse osmosis membrane surfaces. Homocharge and heterocharge behavior of cellulose acetate membrane electrets have been studied. Asymmetric reverse osmosis membranes and dense membrane films were studied. The homocharge and heterocharge of cellulose acetate reverse osmosis electret membranes have been explained.     

Lightweight dynamic symmetry breaking

Symmetries in constraint problems present an opportunity for reducing search. This paper presents Lightweight Dynamic Symmetry Breaking, an automatic symmetry breaking method that is efficient enough to be used as a default, since it never yields a major slowdown while often giving major performance improvements. This is achieved by automatically exploiting certain kinds of symmetry that are common, can be compactly represented, easily and efficiently processed, automatically detected, and lead to large reductions in search. Moreover, the method is easy to implement and integrate in any constraint system. Experimental results show the method is competitive with the best symmetry breaking methods without risking poor performance.     

Polymeric sodium alginate interpenetrating network beads for the controlled release of chlorpyrifos

Novel polymeric sodium alginate (Na‐Alg) interpenetrating network (IPN) beads have been prepared by crosslinking Na‐Alg blend with gelatin (GE) or egg albumin (EA) using glutaraldehyde (GA) as the crosslinking agent. These beads were used for the controlled release of chlorpyrifos. The swelling experiments were performed in water at different temperatures, and these data were used to calculate the molecular mass (M_C) between crosslinks as well as diffusion coefficients. Diffusion coefficients calculated from desorption data were lower by about two orders of magnitude than those calculated from sorption results. Higher values of M_C were obtained for the gelatin‐based IPNs than the neat Na‐Alg and egg albumin‐based matrices. Size of the beads did not vary significantly either by the network or by increasing the exposure time to the crosslinking agent. The scanning electron microscopy (SEM) was used to understand the surface characteristics of the beads. Differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) indicated a molecular level dispersion of chlorpyrifos in the polymer matrix. The percentage entrapment efficiency showed a dependence on the type of network polymer as well as time of exposure to the crosslinking agent. The encapsulation efficiency decreased with an increase in time of exposure to the crosslinking agent. In vitro release experiments have been performed to follow the release kinetics of chlorpyrifos from the matrices. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Appl Polym Sci 85: 911–918, 2002     

Effect of Microstructure on the Tribological and Mechanical Properties of CuO-Doped 3Y-TZP Ceramics

Dense 8 mol% CuO-doped 3Y-TZP ceramics were prepared by pressureless sintering for 8 h at 1500° and 1550°C, respectively. Transmission electron spectroscopy revealed that the ceramic sintered at 1500°C exhibits grain boundaries free of any amorphous phase, while crystalline copper-oxide grains were found in the zirconia matrix, whereas the sample sintered at 1550°C contains a Cu-rich amorphous grain boundary layer. The tribological behavior of these materials was tested under dry-sliding conditions using a pin-on-disk tribometer. The material sintered at 1500°C showed self-lubrication resulting in a low coefficient of friction ( f ) of 0.2–0.3 and a low specific wear rate ( k ) ≪ 10⁻⁶ mm³·(N·m)⁻¹. In contrast, the material sintered at 1550°C showed poor tribological behavior ( f =0.8–0.9; k ≫ 10⁻⁶ mm³·(N·m)⁻¹ under the same conditions. The difference in the tribological behavior of these two materials was interpreted on the basis of mechanical properties and microstructural characteristics.     

Crafting the Compelling User Experience

This article provides an introduction to the usage of software engineering approaches and tools for the design of user experience (UE). This approach was developed for three main reasons: (a) to provide UE design teams a rigorous, methodical, encompassing method that can be applied throughout the entire product development cycle; (b) to provide designers a way to work with abstract concepts to establish the conceptual design of the system before progressing to the realization of the design to the appropriate platform; and (c) to communicate the intended design to the implementation team in a manner that is concise, complete, and familiar. The approach is the application of Unified Modeling Language concepts to describe users and the UE design rather than the technical architecture. It is believed that designing the UE design separately from the technical architecture will help ensure teams deliver a usable and delightful UE. The methods in this article have been applied to a handful of real-world projects in the last year and a half. Thus far, the application of software engineering approaches and tools have been found to be very powerful aids that have enabled the creation of highly useful Web experiences as well as software applications.

Our intent is to address the full gamut of issues involved in creating a total user experience (UE)-from discovery of users needs through high-level and low-level design, ensuring fidelity during development, and deployment, with a full assessment of how well the design meets users' needs. We believe that through a concerted use of such a rigorous approach we can greatly improve not only the UE of products we create, but also the experience of designing and developing them. We are not the only team taking this direction in UE design. It has become clear to many in our field that a more rigorous, thorough, and accurate approach to UE design is not only possible-it is necessary, for many of the same reasons that software engineers long ago embraced such practices. As we are evolving our approaches in other phases, this article focuses on the discovery and design phase activities.     

Beyond Transactional Systems

Although most organizations realize the need to shift the emphasis in systems development from transactional systems to tactical and strategic systems, they are often reluctant or unable to do so. This column examines the reasons for this and discusses how MIS managers can motivate both users and senior managers to develop these systems.     

STRATEGIC PLANNING The MIS Strategic Planning Process

Abstract

A large portion of the literature about business and information systems is written at the grand, strategic level. That is certainly the case for the first two books reviewed in this column. One deals with the broad implications of the shift of routine IT work to Asia and the potential for this shift to expand into development and concepts. The other presents a framework for ameliorating IT risk. The third book is concerned with the nitty gritty of the little decisions, made over and over, in day-to-day operations. The focus is on ways of improving and automating these decisions to gain strategic advantage. And, as you would expect, this third book is much longer and much more detailed than the first two.     

Virtual reality in Africa – for Africa

The paper describes a number of virtual reality projects taking place in Africa. The availability of VR on PCs, it is argued, has made access possible for a large number of users. Applications for education and training and applications that preserve and promote African culture are particularly highlighted.