A spatial and temporal correlation analysis of aggregate wind power in an ideally interconnected Europe

Studies have shown that a large geographic spread of installed capacity can reduce wind power variability and smooth production. This could be achieved by using electricity interconnections and storage systems. However, interconnections and storage are not totally flexible, so it is essential to understand the wind power correlation in order to address power system constraints in systems with large and growing wind power penetrations. In this study, the spatial and temporal correlation of wind power generation across several European Union countries was examined to understand how wind ‘travels’ across Europe. Three years of historical hourly wind power generation data from 10 countries were analysed. The results of the analysis were then compared with two other studies focused on the Nordic region and the USA. The findings show that similar general correlation characteristics do exist between European country pairs. This is of particular importance when planning and operating interconnector flows, storage optimization and cross‐border power trading. Copyright © 2017 The Authors Wind Energy Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd     

Comparison of the stochastic fields method and DQMoM-IEM as turbulent reaction closures

This paper compares two mean reaction rate closures for turbulent reacting flow: the Stochastic Fields (SF) method and the Direct Quadrature Method of Moments using the Interaction by Exchange with the Mean micromixing model (DQMoM-IEM). The methods have many common features and have received significant attention in recent literature, yet have not been systematically compared. We present both methods in the same mathematical framework and compare their numerical performance. In addition, we introduce antithetic sampling as a variance reduction technique to increase the efficiency of the SF algorithm. We extend the methodology to take advantage of this development and show details of the implementation of each method in a commercial computational fluid dynamics code. We present a systematic investigation and consider both axisymmetric and 3D formulations of a problem known from the literature. DQMoM-IEM showed excellent agreement with experimental and transported probability density function data. SF gave reasonable agreement, but retained a minor grid-dependence not seen with DQMoM-IEM and did not fully resolve the sub-grid segregation of the species. The antithetic sampling was demonstrated to significantly increase the efficiency of the axisymmetric SF cases.     

Ultraviolet DIAL measurements of O3 profiles in regions of spatially inhomogeneous aerosols

The differential absorption lidar (DIAL) technique generally assumes that atmospheric optical scattering is the same at the two laser wavelengths used in the DIAL measurement of a gas concentration profile. Errors can arise in this approach when the wavelengths are significantly separated, and there is a range dependence in the aerosol scattering distribution. This paper discusses the errors introduced by large DIAL wavelength separations and spatial inhomogeneity of aerosols in the atmosphere. A Bernoulli solution for determining the relative distribution of aerosol backscattering in the UV region is presented, and scattering ratio boundary values for these solutions are discussed. The results of this approach are used to derive a backscatter correction to the standard DIAL analysis method. It is shown that for the worst cases of severe range dependence in aerosol backscattering, the residual errors in the corrected DIAL O3 measurements were <10 ppbv for DIAL wavelengths at 286 and 300 nm.     

Airborne differential absorption lidar system for measurements of atmospheric water vapor and aerosols

An airborne differential absorption lidar (DIAL) system has been developed at the NASA Langley Research Center for remote measurements of atmospheric water vapor (H(2)O) and aerosols. A solid-state alexandrite laser with a 1-pm linewidth and > 99.85% spectral purity was used as the on-line transmitter. Solid-state avalanche photodiode detector technology has replaced photomultiplier tubes in the receiver system, providing an average increase by a factor of 1.5-2.5 in the signal-to-noise ratio of the H(2)O measurement. By incorporating advanced diagnostic and data-acquisition instrumentation into other subsystems, we achieved additional improvements in system operational reliability and measurement accuracy. Laboratory spectroscopic measurements of H(2)O absorption-line parameters were perfo med to reduce the uncertainties in our knowledge of the absorption cross sections. Line-center H(2)O absorption cross sections were determined, with errors of 3-6%, for more than 120 lines in the 720-nm region. Flight tests of the system were conducted during 1989-1991 on the NASA Wallops Flight Facility Electra aircraft, and extensive intercomparison measurements were performed with dew-point hygrometers and H(2)O radiosondes. The H(2)O distributions measured with the DIAL system differed by ≤ 10% from the profiles determined with the in situ probes in a variety of atmospheric conditions.     

Spectral control of an alexandrite laser for an airborne water-vapor differential absorption lidar system

A narrow-linewidth pulsed alexandrite laser has been greatly modified for improved spectral stability in an aircraft environment, and its operation has been evaluated in the laboratory for making water-vapor differential absorption lidar measurements. An alignment technique is described to achieve the optimum free spectral range ratio for the two étalons inserted in the alexandrite laser cavity, and the sensitivity of this ratio is analyzed. This technique drastically decreases the occurrence of mode hopping, which is commonly observed in a tunable, two-intracavity-étalon laser system. High spectral purity (> 99.85%) at 730 nm is demonstrated by the use of a water-vapor absorption line as a notch filter. The effective cross sections of 760-nm oxygen and 730-nm water-vapor absorption lines are measured at different pressures by usingthis laser, which has a finite linewidth of 0.02 cm(-1) (FWHM). It is found that for water-vapor absorption linewidths greater than 0.04 cm(-1) (HWHM), or for altitudes below 10 km, the laser line can be considered monochromatic because the measured effective absorption cross section is within 1% of the calculated monochromatic cross section. An analysis of the environmental sensitivity of the two intracavity étalons is presented, and a closed-loop computer control for active stabilization of the two intracavity étalons in the alexandrite laser is described. Using a water-vapor absorption line as a wavelength reference, we measure a long-term frequency drift (≈ 1.5 h) of less than 0.7 pm in the laboratory.     

Evaluation of wind power forecasts—An up‐to‐date view

Wind power forecast evaluation is of key importance for forecast provider selection, forecast quality control, and model development. While forecasts are most often evaluated based on squared or absolute errors, these error measures do not always adequately reflect the loss functions and true expectations of the forecast user, neither do they provide enough information for the desired evaluation task. Over the last decade, research in forecast verification has intensified, and a number of verification frameworks and diagnostic tools have been proposed. However, the corresponding literature is generally very technical and most often dedicated to forecast model developers. This can make forecast users struggle to select the most appropriate verification tools for their application while not fully appraising subtleties related to their application and interpretation. This paper revisits the most common verification tools from a forecast user perspective and discusses their suitability for different application examples as well as evaluation setup design and significance of evaluation results.