Unified uncertainty analysis by the mean value first order saddlepoint approximation

Uncertainties exist in products or systems widely. In general, uncertainties are classified as epistemic uncertainty or aleatory uncertainty. This paper proposes a unified uncertainty analysis (UUA) method based on the mean value first order saddlepoint approximation (MVFOSPA), denoted as MVFOSPA-UUA, to estimate the systems probabilities of failure considering both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties simultaneously. In this method, the input parameters with epistemic uncertainty are modeled using interval variables while input parameters with aleatory uncertainty are modeled using probability distribution or random variables. In order to calculate the lower and upper bounds of system probabilities of failure, both the best case and the worst case scenarios of the system performance function need to be considered, and the proposed MVFOSPA-UUA method can handle these two cases easily. The proposed method is demonstrated to be more efficient, robust and in some situations more accurate than the existing methods such as uncertainty analysis based on the first order reliability method. The proposed method is demonstrated using several examples.     

An adaptive hybrid surrogate model

The determination of complex underlying relationships between system parameters from simulated and/or recorded data requires advanced interpolating functions, also known as surrogates. The development of surrogates for such complex relationships often requires the modeling of high dimensional and non-smooth functions using limited information. To this end, the hybrid surrogate modeling paradigm, where different surrogate models are combined, offers an effective solution. In this paper, we develop a new high fidelity surrogate modeling technique that we call the Adaptive Hybrid Functions (AHF). The AHF formulates a reliable Crowding Distance-Based Trust Region (CD-TR), and adaptively combines the favorable characteristics of different surrogate models. The weight of each contributing surrogate model is determined based on the local measure of accuracy for that surrogate model in the pertinent trust region. Such an approach is intended to exploit the advantages of each component surrogate. This approach seeks to simultaneously capture the global trend of the function as well as the local deviations. In this paper, the AHF combines four component surrogate models: (i) the Quadratic Response Surface Model (QRSM), (ii) the Radial Basis Functions (RBF), (iii) the Extended Radial Basis Functions (E-RBF), and (iv) the Kriging model. The AHF is applied to standard test problems and to a complex engineering design problem. Subsequent evaluations of the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and the Maximum Absolute Error (MAE) illustrate the promising potential of this hybrid surrogate modeling approach.     

Molecular dynamics-based prediction of boundary slip of fluids in nanochannels

Computational modeling and simulation can provide an effective predictive capability for flow properties of the confined fluids in micro/nanoscales. In this paper, considering the boundary slip at the fluid–solid interface, the motion property of fluids confined in parallel-plate nanochannels are investigated to couple the atomistic regime to continuum. The corrected second-order slip boundary condition is used to solve the Navier–Stokes equations for confined fluids. Molecular dynamics simulations for Poiseuille flows are performed to study the influences of the strength of the solid–fluid coupling, the fluid temperature, and the density of the solid wall on the velocity slip at the fluid boundary. For weak solid–fluid coupling strength, high temperature of the confined fluid and high density of the solid wall, the large velocity slip at the fluid boundary can be obviously observed. The effectiveness of the corrected second-order slip boundary condition is demonstrated by comparing the velocity profiles of Poiseuille flows from MD simulations with that from continuum.     

避暑山庄的选址

造园首在选址。选址得当,可以事半功倍。计成在《园冶》中指出,只有“相地合宜”,才能“构园得体”。地址要好,清洁卫生,有丘有壑,草地和树林相间”。避暑山庄之所以能够在造园史上独树一帜,选址得当是其中一个重要原因。避暑山庄当时所以选择这块地方建造宫苑,除政治上的原因之外,主要是因为它具有优越的自然条件。避暑山庄的园林艺术成就,已得到世人的公认,造园家相地择址的匠心,也会给我们许多有益的启示。     

Laser glazing of an Fe-C-Sn alloy

Morphology and geometry of melted zones, cooling rates, microstructure and microhardness in the laser-glazed Fe-4%C-10%Sn alloy have been investigated. The computer simulation on the basis of the moving gaussian source model was used successfully to predict the maximum width and depth of the melted zone and the cooling rate. The microstructure from the surface to the bottom of the laser-melted zone is a non-crystalline phase, dendritic grains and a microcrystalline zone successively. Values of the averaged-spacing of the non-crystalline phase are 0.205⁶ and 0.121⁹nm, respectively; twinned martensites, having an axial ratioc/a of 1.128, existed in dendritic grains, and carbides of Fe₃ C at the interdendritic regions; the microcrystalline zone was composed of -Fe and a new bet (a=0.415 nm,c=0.955 nm) phase. The different microstructure in the melted zone can be explained by the results of the heat flow calculation. A fine eutectic structure (-Fe + Fe₃C) was observed in heat-affected zones. Microhardness of the eutectic structure can be predicted by the empirical relation of fracture stress to the interlamellar spacing of pearlite.     

经食道心房调搏的放射性核素心血管造影

本文应用反符合电路剔除调搏脉冲干扰的方法,制成经食道心房调搏心电心音门电路触发装置,用于经食道心房调搏的核素心血管造影。参考Tzivoni标准,当逐级增加调搏心率至140次/min或亚极量心率后发现:冠心病人有调搏后EF降低;急性心肌梗塞病人EF减低更为明显,并呈室壁反向运动。因此,心房调搏核素心血管造影有助于冠心病,特别是心肌梗塞的诊断。     

The calcium-phosphorus and the simultaneous calcium-oxygen and calcium-sulfur equilibria in liquid iron

The equilibrium Ca₃P_2(s) = 3[Ca] + 2[P] was studied at 1600 ° by equilibrating liquid iron, saturated with Ca₃P₂, and contained in a TiN crucible, with Ca vapor. The source of Ca was liquid Ca contained in an Mo crucible, and the vapor pressure of Ca was varied by varying the position of the Mo crucible in the temperature gradient of a vertical tube furnace. A least-squares analysis of the data gave and. The simultaneous equilibria CaO_(s) = [Ca] + [O] and CaS_(s) = [Ca] + [S] were studied at 1600 ° by equilibrating liquid iron, contained in a pressed and sintered CaO-CaS crucible with Ca vapor. The advantage of this technique is that two equilibrium constants,K _cas andK _cao, and two interaction coefficients, and can be determined from one set of experiments. It was determined that, at 1600 °,K _cas = 5.9 × 10⁻⁸ K _cao = 5.5 × 10⁻⁹,, and. Formerly Graduate Students     

混凝土坝冷却自适应控制的在线辨识

本文应用自动控制理论“自适应在线辨识”解决了混凝土大坝混凝土一、二期冷却的自动控制问题。通过预埋的电阻温度计实时量测温度,实时调节循环冷却水系统的流量和水温或是毋须进行通水,以便达到良好的冷却质量和经济节约的目的。     

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本文把与井简直接连通的大裂缝及井筒定义为“裂缝—井筒系统”,通过气体状态方程的变换和续流总量的计算,探索出井底大裂缝的容积及其储量的计算方法。