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One of the most important analysis in many hydrological and agricultural studies is to convert the daily rainfall data into sub-daily (hourly) because in many rainfall stations, only the daily rainfall data are available and for a comprehensive rainfall analysis, these data should be converted to sub-daily. Many experimental and analytical methods are available for this conversion but one of the simplest yet accurate ones has been proposed by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). Since the IMD method has shown low accuracy in some regions, in this study, the IMD method is modified to a single parameter equation, called Modified Indian Meteorological Department (MIMD) in order to improve the accuracy of the conversion. For this reason, the parameter is calibrated so that the maximum correlation between observed and estimated values is achieved. Five stations in different regions with different climatic conditions were selected so that the daily and sub-daily rainfall data were available in each of them. Then, the parameter of the MIMD method was derived for each station. The results were compared with both observed data and IMD method and it was shown that the mean correlation coefficient of MIMD and IMD methods were 0.9 and 0.73 respectively for 12-h rainfall depth which indicated that the accuracy of the MIMD method in estimation of sub-daily rainfall depths was significantly increased. Moreover, the results showed that the accuracy of the MIMD method decreases as rainfall duration decreases.
相似文献Combined simulation–optimization (CSO) schemes are common in the literature to solve different groundwater management problems, and CSO is particularly well-established in the coastal aquifer management literature. However, with a few exceptions, nearly all previous studies have employed the CSO approach to derive static groundwater management plans that remain unchanged during the entire management period, consequently overlooking the possible positive impacts of dynamic strategies. Dynamic strategies involve division of the planning time interval into several subintervals or periods, and adoption of revised decisions during each period based on the most recent knowledge of the groundwater system and its associated uncertainties. Problem structuring and computational challenges seem to be the main factors preventing the widespread implementation of dynamic strategies in groundwater applications. The objective of this study is to address these challenges by introducing a novel probabilistic Multiperiod CSO approach for dynamic groundwater management. This includes reformulation of the groundwater management problem so that it can be adapted to the multiperiod CSO approach, and subsequent employment of polynomial chaos expansion-based stochastic dynamic programming to obtain optimal dynamic strategies. The proposed approach is employed to provide sustainable solutions for a coastal aquifer storage and recovery facility in Oman, considering the effect of natural recharge uncertainty. It is revealed that the proposed dynamic approach results in an improved performance by taking advantage of system variations, allowing for increased groundwater abstraction, injection and hence monetary benefit compared to the commonly used static optimization approach.
相似文献This study proposes a novel design to systematically optimize the parameters for the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model using stochastic fractal search (SFS) algorithm. To affirm the efficiency of the proposed SFS-ANFIS model, the predicting results were compared with ANFIS and three hybrid methodologies based on ANFIS combined with genetic algorithm (GA), differential evolution (DE), and particle swarm optimization (PSO). Accurate prediction of uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) is of great significance for all geotechnical projects such as tunnels and dams. Hence, this study proposes the use of SFS-ANFIS, GA-ANFIS, DE-ANFIS, PSO-ANFIS, and ANFIS models to predict UCS. In this regard, the fresh water tunnel of Pahang–Selangor located in Malaysia was considered and the requirement data samples were collected. Different statistical metrics such as coefficient of determination (R2) and mean absolute error were used to evaluate the models. Referring to the efficiency results of SFS-ANFIS, it can be found that the SFS-ANFIS (with the R2 of 0.981) has higher ability than PSO-ANFIS, DE-ANFIS, GA-ANFIS, and ANFIS models in predicting the UCS.
相似文献Ground vibration is the most detrimental effect induced by blasting in surface mines. This study presents an improved bagged support vector regression (BSVR) combined with the firefly algorithm (FA) to predict ground vibration. In other words, the FA was used to modify the weights of the SVR model. To verify the validity of the BSVR–FA, the back-propagation neural network (BPNN) and radial basis function network (RBFN) were also applied. The BSVR–FA, BPNN and RBFN models were constructed using a comprehensive database collected from Shur River dam region, in Iran. The proposed models were then evaluated by means of several statistical indicators such as root mean square error (RMSE) and symmetric mean absolute percentage error. Comparing the results, the BSVR–FA model was found to be the most accurate to predict ground vibration in comparison to the BPNN and RBFN models. This study indicates the successful application of the BSVR–FA model as a suitable and effective tool for the prediction of ground vibration.
相似文献Shear connectors play a prominent role in the design of steel-concrete composite systems. The behavior of shear connectors is generally determined through conducting push-out tests. However, these tests are costly and require plenty of time. As an alternative approach, soft computing (SC) can be used to eliminate the need for conducting push-out tests. This study aims to investigate the application of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, as sub-branches of SC methods, in the behavior prediction of an innovative type of C-shaped shear connectors, called Tilted Angle Connectors. For this purpose, several push-out tests are conducted on these connectors and the required data for the AI models are collected. Then, an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is developed to identify the most influencing parameters on the shear strength of the tilted angle connectors. Totally, six different models are created based on the ANFIS results. Finally, AI techniques such as an artificial neural network (ANN), an extreme learning machine (ELM), and another ANFIS are employed to predict the shear strength of the connectors in each of the six models. The results of the paper show that slip is the most influential factor in the shear strength of tilted connectors and after that, the inclination angle is the most effective one. Moreover, it is deducted that considering only four parameters in the predictive models is enough to have a very accurate prediction. It is also demonstrated that ELM needs less time and it can reach slightly better performance indices than those of ANN and ANFIS.
相似文献Piles are widely applied to substructures of various infrastructural buildings. Soil has a complex nature; thus, a variety of empirical models have been proposed for the prediction of the bearing capacity of piles. The aim of this study is to propose a novel artificial intelligent approach to predict vertical load capacity of driven piles in cohesionless soils using support vector regression (SVR) optimized by genetic algorithm (GA). To the best of our knowledge, no research has been developed the GA-SVR model to predict vertical load capacity of driven piles in different timescales as of yet, and the novelty of this study is to develop a new hybrid intelligent approach in this field. To investigate the efficacy of GA-SVR model, two other models, i.e., SVR and linear regression models, are also used for a comparative study. According to the obtained results, GA-SVR model clearly outperformed the SVR and linear regression models by achieving less root mean square error (RMSE) and higher coefficient of determination (R2). In other words, GA-SVR with RMSE of 0.017 and R2 of 0.980 has higher performance than SVR with RMSE of 0.035 and R2 of 0.912, and linear regression model with RMSE of 0.079 and R2 of 0.625.
相似文献