A matrix population model to aid agency response to grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) in the Great Lakes Basin - Lake Erie

Managers and researchers have identified a reproducing population of grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) in the western basin of Lake Erie, generating concern over the potential threat to ecosystem function in the Great Lakes Basin. Capture histories indicate that grass carp may be present at low levels in other areas of Lake Erie, necessitating a large scale, multi-jurisdictional response. As a result, a group of experts and decision makers began a structured decision making exercise to collaboratively address the threat and identify potential response actions. To aid this process, we developed a spatially-explicit periodic matrix population model to project grass carp abundance, and probabilistically evaluate specific management actions. We evaluated four potential management response actions ranging from no action, diffuse removal efforts, and concentrated removal efforts with and without a barrier on the Sandusky River to reduce spawning success. Based on our current knowledge, concentrated removal including a barrier on the Sandusky River provides the most likely path to achieving and maintaining a management target of no more than 10 fish/ha. Our understanding of grass carp ecology in Lake Erie is growing. This model and parameter development methods were designed to flexibly accommodate new information as our understanding of grass carp ecology evolves, or management objectives change. Ultimately, this modeling framework and use of Bayesian methods could facilitate management response efforts for other invasive species occurring over large scales and multiple jurisdictions.     

Microplastic and other anthropogenic microparticles in water and sediments of Lake Simcoe

Microplastics (plastic particles <5 mm in size) have been reported in ecosystems worldwide and have been shown to cause adverse negative impacts on organisms. This study provides the first report of microplastics and other anthropogenic microparticles in the surface waters and sediments of Lake Simcoe in Ontario, Canada, a popular recreational and fishing lake. Surface waters (low volume grabs and manta trawls) and sediments were sampled from eight sites to determine microparticle abundances and character (size, morphology, material identity). Concentrations ranged from 0 to 0.7 particles/L in surface water grab samples, 0.4–1.3 particles/m³ in manta trawl samples, and 8.3–1070 particles/kg in sediment samples. Spectroscopic analysis confirmed that 72% of particles were anthropogenic, with 64% unambiguously identified as microplastics. However, confirmed microplastic concentrations were approximately 6–7 times lower than unadjusted counts in sediments, demonstrating the importance of verifying and adjusting reported values. Fibers were only quantified and characterized in surface water grab samples and sediments, and were the most common morphology, accounting for 82% and 89% of anthropogenic particles, respectively. Fragments were most common in manta trawl samples (75%, excluding fibers) and consisted predominantly of polyethylene (41%) and polypropylene (22%). The influence of proximity to urban centers and prevailing winds on the distribution of microplastics was apparent in surface water manta trawls. Microplastics and other anthropogenic microparticles are present in Lake Simcoe but at lower abundances than at locations impacted by larger population centers in other large freshwater lakes such as Lakes Ontario and Erie of the Great Lakes.     

Analysis of non-adiabatic heat-recirculating combustors

A simple first-principles model of counter current heat-recirculating combustors is developed, including the effects of heat transfer from the product gas stream to the reactant stream, heat loss to ambient, and heat conduction in the streamwise direction through the dividing wall (and heat transfer surface) between the reactant and product streams. It is shown that streamwise conduction through the wall has a major effect on the operating limits of the combustor, especially at small dimensionless mass fluxes (M) or Reynolds numbers that would be characteristic of microscale devices. In particular, if this conduction is neglected, there is no small-M extinction limit because smaller M leads to larger heat recirculation and longer residence times that overcome heat loss if M is sufficiently small. In contrast, even a small effect of conduction along this surface leads to significantly higher minimum M. Comparison is made with an alternative configuration of a flame stabilized at the exit of a tube, where heat recirculation occurs via conduction through tube wall; it is found that the counter-current exchanger configuration provides superior performance under similar operating conditions. Implications for microscale combustion are discussed.     

Like counting deckchairs on the Titanic: A study of institutional racism and housing allocations in Haringey and Lambeth

Why and how do black people lose out in the provision of social housing? This was the question that we set out to examine, looking at the situation in two London boroughs with a declared commitment to anti‐racism in the late 1980s. Previous studies had focused on the role of officer discretion, and a popular strategy of ‘institutional hygiene’ had been adopted to counter this factor by many agencies as part of an anti‐racist or more general equal opportunities policy. This strategy concentrated on limiting individual officer discretion near the point of service delivery in favour of formalising procedures and monitoring outcomes. In this paper we re‐examine the role of officer discretion and look at the way that differing local institutional discourses of racial and ethnic difference, particularly essentialist ones, affect the way that housing outcomes are produced and either made visible or hidden. We argue first that it is important to examine the local context to see how racial meanings are constructed and reproduced by individual and institutions in a dynamic relationship. Second, we argue that using a gaming metaphor is helpful in examining the way that different interests and players interact at different levels in the process of housing allocation, and that this contributes to a better understanding of how racialised groups can be disadvantaged by a number of factors in the allocation of social housing.     

Order 745 Revisited,Upheld

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Order 745, Demand Response Compensation in Organized Wholesale Energy Markets, issued March 15, 2011, amended FERC regulations under the Federal Power Act. The order was to ensure that when demand-response resources are made available as an alternative to generation resources, they be paid the same prevailing locational marginal price (LMP).     

The laminar/turbulent transition in a sludge pipeline

Globally, wastewater treatment plants are under pressure to handle high concentration sludge in a sludge treatment line. Unawareness of the non-Newtonian behaviour of the thickened sludge has the potential to cause unexpected problems when the fluid behaviour changes from turbulent to laminar flow. In this study, sludge apparent viscosity was plotted as a function of total suspended solids concentration (TSS) and shear rate. Then, the transition velocity based on several predictive models in the literature was determined. This analysis provides a practical basis for the prediction of the pipe flow behaviour of thickened sludge in troubleshooting and engineering design.     

Factors affecting the composition and amount of 'white exudate' from cooked bacon

Bacon sometimes produces a white, unsightly fluid that exudes from the surfaces during cooking —a phenomenon that has resulted in frequent consumer complaints. The quantity of exudate from bacon of known history was assessed subjectively, by ranking photographs following ‘dry-frying’, and objectively, by collecting exudate in an ice cooled tray after grilling. Trained assessors ranked samples in order of visible exudate as follows: dry cured相似文献   

A cardinal model to describe the effect of water activity on the growth of moulds

A simple model was proposed to describe the effect of water activity (Aw) on the radial growth rate of moulds. This model is deduced from the cardinal model family proposed by Rosso in 1995, which is only defined from cardinal values of environmental factors (minimum, optimum and maximum values), the growth rate observed at the optimal value of the environmental factors, and n, a shape parameter. For Aw, a simple form of cardinal model is proposed. This form is obtained for n = 2 and Aw(max) = 1.0 (pure water). The final model is so defined from only three parameters: Aw(min), Aw(opt), and optimal radial growth rate (RGR(opt)). This model was successfully fitted on a data set of Aspergillus flavus, Aspergillus nomius, Aspergillus oryzae, Aspergillus parasiticus, Aspergillus candidus, Aspergillus sydowii, Eurotium amstelodami, Eurotium chevalieri, and Xeromyces bisporus. The same quality of fit was obtained for different solutes used to control the Aw (NaCl, glucose/fructose mixture, glycerol), and at different pH values. From this model and using cardinal values extracted from the literature, theoretical evolutions of the RGR of enicillium roqueforti, and Paecilomyces variotii, were proposed and superimposed on data published in the literature. The results showed a good concordance between the predicted and the observed values for these species. The use of this model in Predictive Microbiology is discussed.     

Small eddies observed in Lake Superior using SAR and sea surface temperature imagery

Making use of the fine resolution of satellite SAR imagery, we observe small eddies during the spring and summer months in several locations in Lake Superior. During these months there is a thermal gradient between warmer nearshore waters and colder offshore waters which enhances cyclonic coastal currents. Using spaceborne SAR imagery from the European Space Agency's ERS-1 and ERS-2 missions from 1992 to 1998, we observe small eddies, identifying and mapping basic eddy characteristics including diameter, location, and rotational sense. In total, 45 eddies were located, of which 41 were cyclonic and 4 anticyclonic. Average diameter was 9.8 km and average distance to shore was 8.1 km. Based on sea surface temperature data from AVHRR, the eddies are located within the region of sharp thermal gradients of order 3–5 °C per 3 km. Spatial and temporal coverage was uneven, however, more eddies were seen in SAR images taken in late summer along the southern and eastern shores as well as areas where the boundary current interacts with topographic features including islands and promontories.     

The value of compressed air energy storage in energy and reserve markets

Storage devices can provide several grid services, however it is challenging to quantify the value of providing several services and to optimally allocate storage resources to maximize value. We develop a co-optimized Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES) dispatch model to characterize the value of providing operating reserves in addition to energy arbitrage in several U.S. markets. We use the model to: (1) quantify the added value of providing operating reserves in addition to energy arbitrage; (2) evaluate the dynamic nature of optimally allocating storage resources into energy and reserve markets; and (3) quantify the sensitivity of CAES net revenues to several design and performance parameters. We find that conventional CAES systems could earn an additional $23 ± 10/kW-yr by providing operating reserves, and adiabatic CAES systems could earn an additional $28 ± 13/kW-yr. We find that arbitrage-only revenues are unlikely to support a CAES investment in most market locations, but the addition of reserve revenues could support a conventional CAES investment in several markets. Adiabatic CAES revenues are not likely to support an investment in most regions studied. Modifying CAES design and performance parameters primarily impacts arbitrage revenues, and optimizing CAES design will be nearly independent of dispatch strategy.