Does Density Aggravate the COVID-19 Pandemic?

Abstract

Problem, research strategy, and findings: The impact of density on emerging highly contagious infectious diseases has rarely been studied. In theory, dense areas lead to more face-to-face interaction among residents, which makes them potential hotspots for the rapid spread of pandemics. On the other hand, dense areas may have better access to health care facilities and greater implementation of social distancing policies and practices. The current COVID-19 pandemic is a perfect case study to investigate these relationships. Our study uses structural equation modeling to account for both direct and indirect impacts of density on the COVID-19 infection and mortality rates for 913?U.S. metropolitan counties, controlling for key confounding factors. We find metropolitan population to be one of the most significant predictors of infection rates; larger metropolitan areas have higher infection and higher mortality rates. We also find that after controlling for metropolitan population, county density is not significantly related to the infection rate, possibly due to more adherence to social distancing guidelines. However, counties with higher densities have significantly lower virus-related mortality rates than do counties with lower densities, possibly due to superior health care systems.

Takeaway for practice: These findings suggest that connectivity matters more than density in the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Large metropolitan areas with a higher number of counties tightly linked together through economic, social, and commuting relationships are the most vulnerable to the pandemic outbreaks. They are more likely to exchange tourists and businesspeople within themselves and with other parts, thus increasing the risk of cross-border infections. Our study concludes with a key recommendation that planners continue to advocate dense development for a host of reasons, including lower death rates due to infectious diseases like COVID-19.     

Liquefaction assessment using microtremor measurement,conventional method and artificial neural network (Case study: Babol,Iran)

Recent researchers have discovered microtremor applications for evaluating the liquefaction potential. Microtremor measurement is a fast, applicable and cost-effective method with extensive applications. In the present research the liquefaction potential has been reviewed by utilization of microtremor measurement results in Babol city. For this purpose microtremor measurements were performed at 60 measurement stations and the data were analyzed by suing Nakmaura’s method. By using the fundamental frequency and amplification factor, the value of vulnerability index (K _g ) was calculated and the liquefaction potential has been evaluated. To control the accuracy of this method, its output has been compared with the results of Seed and Idriss [1] method in 30 excavated boreholes within the study area. Also, the results obtained by the artificial neural network (ANN) were compared with microtremor measurement. Regarding the results of these three methods, it was concluded that the threshold value of liquefaction potential is K _g = 5. On the basis of the analysis performed in this research it is concluded that microtremors have the capability of assessing the liquefaction potential with desirable accuracy.     

Optimisation of a combined Stirling cycle–organic Rankine cycle using a genetic algorithm

In a Stirling cycle a huge amount of energy is wasted due to the losses. This wasted energy may be utilised as a heat source for the boiler of an organic Rankine cycle (ORC). Combination of these two cycles leads to an increased cycle efficiency compared to a single Stirling cycle and the analysis and optimisation of the integrated system is carried out. Optimisation is performed using the genetic algorithm and considering three decision variables: the temperature of the cold tank of the Stirling cycle, the pressure ratio and the temperature of the ORC condenser. In optimisation, the efficiency is considered as the objective function and the highest value is achieved by adjusting the decision variables. Using this method, the efficiency of the overall combined cycle was improved in which the highest efficiency was obtained to be 41.5%.     

Optimal Inter-Basin Water Allocation Using Crisp and Fuzzy Shapley Games

In recent years, uneven distribution of available water resources as well as increasing water demands and overexploiting the water resources have brought severe need for transferring water from basins having sufficient water to basins facing water shortages. Therefore, optimal allocation of shared water resources in water transfer projects, considering the utilities of different stakeholders, physical limitations of the system and socioeconomic criteria is an important task. In this paper, a new methodology based on crisp and fuzzy Shapley games is developed for optimal allocation of inter-basin water resources. In the proposed methodology, initial water allocations are obtained using an optimization model considering an equity criterion. In the second step, the stakeholders form crisp coalitions to increase the total net benefit of the system as well as their own benefits and a crisp Shapley Value game is used to reallocate the benefits produced in the crisp coalitions. Lastly, to provide maximum total net benefit, fuzzy coalitions are constituted and the participation rates of water users to fuzzy coalitions are optimized. Then, the total net benefit is reallocated to water users in a rational and equitable way using Fuzzy Shapley Value game. The effectiveness of this method is examined by applying it to a large scale case study of water transfer from the Karoon river basin in southern Iran to the Rafsanjan plain in central Iran.     

A Multi-Model Nonstationary Rainfall-Runoff Modeling Framework: Analysis and Toolbox

Water Resources Management - We present a framework and toolbox for multi-model (one at a time) nonstationary modeling of rainfall-runoff (RR) transformation. The designed time-varying nature of...     

Combined vector control and direct torque control method for high performance induction motor drives

A new control method is proposed for three phase high performance induction motor drives. The control system enjoys the advantages of vector control and direct torque control and avoids some of the implementation difficulties of either of the two control methods. In particular, the proposed control system includes a current vector control in connection with a switching table. An extensive comparative performance evaluation of a motor under the proposed control method confirms the effectiveness of the method and its partial superiority over either vector control or direct torque control despite its relative structural simplicity.     

利用不稳定压力数据建立碳酸盐岩储集层模型

地质模型通常是根据地质信息,利用地球物理和岩石物理资料来建立.为了建立准确的碳酸盐岩油藏(伊朗海上油田)模型,不仅利用了地震和测井数据,也结合了该油田现有99井次的试井数据.在试井解释过程中观察到了许多特征,如封闭断层、水层、裂缝和分层系统,其中某些特征只能利用压力瞬态数据来识别,如地震数据中观察不到的一条封闭断层在试井曲线上则可识别.除了识别构造特征外,试井解释得到的渗透率数据也可用于绘制渗透率等值线图,而不再采用岩心分析得到的渗透率数据.试井得到的渗透率是泄油区域的有效渗透率,而岩心分析得到的渗透率并不能代表非均质油藏的渗透性.利用非稳态压力分析结果建立油藏模型,可以提高碳酸盐岩油藏建模的准确性.图6表1参8     

Numerical investigation of fluid flow and heat transfer around a solid circular cylinder utilizing nanofluid

In this study, flow-field and heat transfer through a copper–water nanofluid around circular cylinder has been numerically investigated. Governing equations containing continuity, N–S equation and energy equation have been developed in polar coordinate system. The equations have been numerically solved using a finite volume method over a staggered grid system. SIMPLE algorithm has been applied for solving the pressure linked equations. Reynolds and Peclet numbers (based on the cylinder diameter and the velocity of free stream) are within the range of 1 to 40. Furthermore, volume fraction of nanoparticles (φ) varies within the range of 0 to 0.05. Effective thermal conductivity and effective viscosity of nanofluid have been estimated by Hamilton–Crosser and Brinkman models, respectively. The effect of volume fraction of nanoparticles on the fluid flow and heat transfer characteristics are investigated. It is found that the vorticity, pressure coefficient, recirculation length are increased by the addition of nanoparticles into clear fluid. Moreover, the local and mean Nusselt numbers are enhanced due to adding nanoparticles into base fluid.     

Analysis of a crack emanating from a circular hole in a loaded plane

The problem of a linear elastic loaded plane containing a circular hole with an arbitrary positioned edge crack is considered. The formulation is based on consideration of the dislocational pile-up in order to represent the crack, and on a fictious dislocation in the hole in order to satisfy single valued displacement requirement for the resulting stress potentials.The results are given in terms of the stress intensity factors at the crack tip for a variety of geometries. As the results indicate, at certain geometries there exists a critical crack length such that, below that value, the crack experiences an intensive growth, and, above this value, retardation of growth or crack arrest will take place.

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Résumé On considère le problème d'une plaque plane linéaire élastique, mise en charge, et comportant un trou circulaire avec une fissure de bord placée de manière arbitraire. Pour la formulation, on se base sur une représentation de la fissure par un empilement de dislocations et, pour satisfaire à l'exigence de déplacement unitaire associé aux potentiels de contrainte résultants, on suppose l'existence d'une dislocation fictive dans le trou.On présente les résultats sous forme de facteurs d'intensité de contraintes correspondant à diverses géométries. Comme l'indiquent les résultats, il existe pour certaines configurations une longueur critique de fissure telle que la fissure passe par une phase de croissance intensive lorsque sa longueur en est inférieure, ou au contraire se ralentit, voire s'arrête, lorsque sa longueur est supérieure à cette longueur critique.