The road to maturity: navigating between craft and science

C. Ebert presents his views on the state of software engineering as a field, its roots and inherent conflicts, its relationship to other engineering disciplines, where it is headed, and what we can do to influence that direction. T. Matsubara, T. Webb, M. Pezze, and O.W. Bertelsen offer a spectrum of further insights     

Development of a recurrent Sigma-Pi neural network rainfall forecasting system in Hong Kong

At the moment, weather forecasting is still an art — the experience and intuition of forecasters play a significant role in determining the quality of forecasting. This paper describes the development of a new approach to rainfall forecasting using neural networks. It deals with the extraction of information from radar images and an evaluation of past rain gauge records to provide shortterm rainfall forecasting. All of the meteorological data were provided by the Royal Observatory of Hong Kong (ROHK). Preprocessing procedures were essential for this neural network rainfall forecasting. The forecast of the rainfall was performed every half an hour so that a storm warning signal can be delivered to the public in advance. The network architecture is based on a recurrent Sigma-Pi network. The results are very promising, and this neural-based rainfall forecasting system is capable of providing a rain storm warning signal to the Hong Kong public one hour ahead.     

Prevalence of adrenal carcinoma among incidentally discovered adrenal masses. A retrospective study from 1989 to 1994. Gruppo Piemontese Incidentalomi Surrenalici

BACKGROUND: The incidental discovery of an adrenal mass poses the problem of distinguishing between the frequent benign masses and the infrequent malignant ones that require surgery. Univocal guidelines to approach this problem are unavailable. OBJECTIVE: To perform a survey of the clinical management of incidentally discovered adrenal masses (ie, adrenal incidentalomas). DESIGN: A multicentric retrospective analysis of hospital medical records of adrenal incidentalomas diagnosed during a 5-year period; the medical records were scrutinized for demographic data and clinical details by means of a specifically tailored questionnaire. SETTING: The major surgical and medical centers of Piedmont, a northern Italian region with approximately 4 million inhabitants. The recruitment pattern of these centers was unselected. PATIENTS: The definition of adrenal incidentaloma was limited to patients with a physical examination and a clinical history unindicative of adrenal disease. Exclusion criteria also included hypertension of suspected endocrine origin and a history of neoplasms known to metastasize frequently in the adrenal glands. Two hundred twenty-four medical records were collected, and 210 were analyzed (14 excluded a posteriori). RESULTS: Most patients were in their 50s and 60s, and women were predominantly affected. The frequency of adrenocortical cancer was 13% among patients operated on. The tumor diameter was highly correlated with the risk of cancer; a cutoff at 5 cm had a sensitivity of 93% with a specificity of 64% in discriminating between benign and malignant cortical lesions. CONCLUSIONS: The occurrence of adrenocortical carcinoma among adrenal incidentalomas is not rare. The evaluation of the mass size is a simple and effective method for selecting patients at risk for cancer. The indication for surgery of masses larger than 5 cm, or of masses of any diameter that have suspicious imaging characteristics, limits unnecessary operations and costs.     

A Metallographic Study of Abnormal Grain Growth During Aging of a β-Quenched Zr-1.14 Wt% Cr-0.08 Wt% Fe Alloy

Results are reported of a detailed optical and electron metallographic study of the effects of variations in quenching rate from the β-phase and aging temperature in the + ZrCr₂ phase region, on the recrystallization and grain growth characteristics of Zr-1.14 wt% Cr-0.08 wt% Fe alloy used for nuclear fuel sheathing. It is shown that certain quenching rates, which produce a mixed martensitic-Widmanstätten structure, should be avoided during the fabrication of fuel sheathing, since recrystallization and grain growth occurs at a much lower temperature than a material quenched at such a rate that the structure is wholly Widmanstätten or wholly martensitic. Preaging at 350 or 450°C prior to the high-temperature (700–750°C) aging reduces the incidence of recrystallization and grain growth.     

Artificial neural networks for coordination and control: The portability of experiential representations

It is time to locate connectionist representation theory in the new wave of robotics research. The utility of representations developed in artificial neural networks (ANNs) during learning has been demonstrated in cognitive science research since the 1980s. The research reported here puts learned representations to work in a decentered control task, the disembodied arm problem, in which a mobile robot operates an arm fixed to a table to pick up objects. There is no physical linkage between the arm and the robot and so the robot's point of view must be decentered. This is done by developing a modular Artificial Neural Net system in three stages: (i) a classifier net is trained with laser scan data to output transformationally invariant position classes; (ii) an arm net is trained for picking up objects; (iii) an inter net is trained to communicate and coordinate the sensing and acting. The completed system is shown to create new nonsymbolic transformationally invariant representations in order to perform the effective generalization of decentered viewpoints.     

Study of the heart rate and energy expenditure of ponies during transport

The energy expenditure and heart rate of five Shetland ponies were measured during transport and compared with the values recorded while they were at rest and walking. Secondary aims of the study were to investigate whether there was any correlation between heart rate and energy expenditure and whether different orientations affected the values to different degrees. The measurements were recorded at one-minute intervals while the ponies were at rest, walking and being transported in four different orientations, on journeys lasting 30 minutes. There were significant increases (P < 0.001) in both heart rate and energy expenditure during transport which were similar to those associated with walking, and there was a strong correlation between the two measurements. There was no conclusive evidence that orientation affected the measurements, but it appeared that rear facing transport might have had the least effect.     

Certain nonlinear partially observable stochastic optimal controlproblems with explicit control laws equivalent to LEQG/LQG problems

This paper is concerned with partially observed stochastic optimal control problems when nonlinearities enter the dynamics of the unobservable state and the observations as gradients of potential functions. Explicit representations for the information state are derived in terms of a finite number of sufficient statistics. Consequently, the partially observed problem is recast as one of complete information with a new state generated by a modified version of the Kalman filter. When the terminal cost is quadratic in the unobservable state and includes the integral of the nonlinearities, the optimal control laws are explicitly computed, similar to linear-exponential-quadratic-Gaussian (LEQG) and linear-quadratic-Gaussian (LQG) tracking problems. The results are applicable to filtering and control of Hamiltonian systems     

Estimating the viewing parameters of random, noisy projections ofasymmetric objects for tomographic reconstruction

The ability to determine the viewing parameters of objects from their projections has enabled well established tomographic techniques to be employed in the 3D reconstruction of objects from images obtained via modalities where the orientation of the objects cannot be controlled. A method is described for the determination of the viewing parameters of randomly acquired projections of asymmetric objects. It extends upon the common lines algorithm by determining the relative orientation of projections from the location of lines of intersection among the Fourier transforms of the projections in 3D Fourier space. A new technique for finding the lines of intersection in the presence of translational displacement, and for subsequently finding the translational displacement, is presented. The complete algorithm is described and its efficacy is demonstrated using real data. A new technique for dealing with noise is also discussed     

On a large-gain theorem

The aim of this paper is to give a general quantitative requirement which the loop gain must satisfy in order to stabilize a given unstable (possibly nonlinear and time-varying) plant, namely that the gain must exceed one.