Long range peak demand forecasting under conditions of high growth

An extended logistic model with a varying asymptotic upper bound for long-range peak demand forecasting is described. The model has been applied to a typical fast growing system, the Saudi Consolidated Electric Company. The forecasts are compared with actual demands and with those obtained from classical forecasting methods. The model gave relatively accurate peak demand forecasts compared with other classical methods. The model with a single load observation is capable of producing several peak demand forecasts corresponding to different levels of maximum temperature and various levels of social activity. The forecasts produced by the model were also stable irrespective of the length of the ex-post simulation period     

Serotype-specific amplification of Rickettsia tsutsugamushi DNA by nested polymerase chain reaction

Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) with nested primer pairs was used to diagnose scrub typhus and identify the Rickettsia tsutsugamushi serotype. The primer pairs used for PCR were designed on the basis of the nucleotide sequence of the gene that encodes the 56-kDa antigen. Serotype-specific primers were used in the second PCR amplification. Five serovariants, the Gilliam, Karp, Kato, Kawasaki, and Kuroki strains of R. tsutsugamushi, were identified by nested PCR. In addition, the serotype identified by PCR with DNA from blood clots was the same as that of the strain isolated from five patients with scrub typhus. These findings indicate that this method is useful for diagnosis and identification of the rickettsial serotype in infected patients.     

Local variations of the dynamic elastic modulus around running cracks

The variation of the dynamic elastic modulus in the immediate vicinity of the tip of the running crack was studied through an iterative procedure, based on the theoretical expressions for the stress-field components and the experimental relation between strain rate and elastic modulus. It was found that the elastic modulus varied strongly around the tip of the crack, both in radial and polar sense. Also it was observed that the polar distribution of the elastic modulus presented clear off-axis extrema in directions that were in good agreement with experimentally measured branching angles, thus indicating a possible relation between these two phenomena.     

IL-4- and IL-5-secreting lymphocyte populations are preferentially stimulated by parasite-derived antigens in human tissue invasive nematode infections

Helminth infections in humans and animals are associated with strong T helper 2 (Th2) responses. To determine whether parasite-derived Ag preferentially expand a Th2-like cell population, a filter immunoplaque assay was used to enumerate the frequencies (F0) of PBMC and CD4(+)-enriched PBMC from individuals with helminth infections secreting selected cytokines in response to parasite-derived (PAg) and nonparasite antigens (NPAg). In 20 individuals with lymphatic filariasis, frequency analysis of PBMC secreting IL-4 and IFN-gamma indicated that the F0 of PAg-specific IL-4-secreting cells (geometric mean F0 (GM): 1/12,100) was 57-fold higher than the corresponding F0 of NPAg-reactive cells (GM: 1/692,000; p < 0.02). In marked contrast, the F0 of IFN-gamma-secreting cells responding to PAg (GM: 1/2,700) did not differ from those of cells specific for NAPg (GM: 1/3,400; p = 0.83). In another group of helminth-infected individuals, the F0 of highly enriched CD4+ cells secreting IL-4 and IL-5 in response to PAg (GMs: 1/2,600 and 1/5,600 CD4+ cells, respectively) were also found to be significantly higher than those specific for NPAg (GMs: 1/291,000 and 1/303,000 CD4+; p < 0.05 and p < 0.01, respectively), whereas the corresponding F0 of IFN-gamma- and granulocyte-macrophage-CSF-secreting cells were equivalent for PAg and NPag. Furthermore, the proportion of PAg-specific IL-4- and IL-5-secreting CD4+ cells relative to all cells secreting the given cytokine were approximately 29-fold higher than the proportion of NPAg-specific cells secreting these cytokines. Again, the corresponding proportions of Ag-specific IFN-gamma-and GM-CSF-secreting CD4+ cells were equivalent for PAg and NPAg. Thus, in this ex vivo system, a circulating population of IL-4- and IL-5-secreting (Th2-like) cells has been shown to exist in humans; PAg appears to expand these cells preferentially.     

Copy number differences in the 195 bp repeated satellite DNA from Trypanosoma cruzi and Trypanosoma rangeli: potential use for epidemiologic surveys

Detection of a nondistended pyriform sinus on cross-sectional imaging studies represents a diagnostic dilemma. The finding may be an inconstant physiologic phenomenon without clinical significance, or it may be due to tissue thickening and lack of pliability related to neoplasia or inflammation. Rescanning during respiratory maneuvers may clarify the anatomy, but full patient cooperation is needed. We demonstrate a method (turning the patient's head away from the side of the nondistended sinus) that induces distention of the pyriform sinus but does not require active patient participation.