How uncertain are climate model projections of water availability indicators across the Middle East?

The projection of robust regional climate changes over the next 50 years presents a considerable challenge for the current generation of climate models. Water cycle changes are particularly difficult to model in this area because major uncertainties exist in the representation of processes such as large-scale and convective rainfall and their feedback with surface conditions. We present climate model projections and uncertainties in water availability indicators (precipitation, run-off and drought index) for the 1961-1990 and 2021-2050 periods. Ensembles from two global climate models (GCMs) and one regional climate model (RCM) are used to examine different elements of uncertainty. Although all three ensembles capture the general distribution of observed annual precipitation across the Middle East, the RCM is consistently wetter than observations, especially over the?mountainous areas. All future projections show decreasing precipitation (ensemble median between -5 and -25%) in coastal Turkey and parts of Lebanon, Syria and Israel and consistent run-off and drought index changes. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) GCM ensemble exhibits drying across the north of the region, whereas the Met Office Hadley Centre work Quantifying Uncertainties in Model ProjectionsAtmospheric (QUMP-A) GCM and RCM ensembles show slight drying in the north and significant wetting in the south. RCM projections also show greater sensitivity (both wetter and drier) and a wider uncertainty range than QUMP-A. The nature of these uncertainties suggests that both large-scale circulation patterns, which influence region-wide drying/wetting patterns, and regional-scale processes, which affect localized water availability, are important sources of uncertainty in these projections. To reduce large uncertainties in water availability projections, it is suggested that efforts would be well placed to focus on the understanding and modelling of both large-scale processes and their teleconnections with Middle East climate and localized processes involved in orographic precipitation.     

Conserved N-linked oligosaccharides of the C-terminal portion of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 gp120 and viral susceptibility to neutralizing antibodies

We have constructed a mutated infectious HIV variant lacking the signals for addition of three N-linked glycans situated in the V4, C4 and V5 regions of HIV gp120. When comparing mutated virus with wildtype virus we found essentially no differences in the phenotypic characteristics of the two viruses except for the expected electrophoretic mobility shift of radioimmuno-precipitated mutated gp120, resulting from the missing N-glycans. Thus, the infectivity titer and the capacity to induce syncytia were similar for the two viruses. The sensitivity of mutant and wildtype virus to a number of neutralizing agents was determined. As expected, the mutant virus was significantly less sensitive to neutralization by Con A, with affinity for the N-glycans eliminated. We found, however, that antibodies to the V3 loop and sCD4 neutralized wild-type virus as efficiently as mutant virus, whereas 2G12, a monoclonal antibody, binding to a discontinuous neutralization epitope, and GP13, binding to the CD4-binding domain, neutralized wildtype virus better than mutant virus. Altogether the data suggest that the three conserved N-linked glycans, despite their location in immediate association with the CD4-binding domain, which is an important neutralization epitope, are not essential for virus replication in cell culture and they are not engaged in shielding neutralization epitopes of gp120 from neutralizing antibodies. However, the glycans evidently influence the three-dimensional conformation of gp120, since their presence increases the availability of the neutralization epitope of 2G12.     

A model for alloying in ferromagnetic metals

A mathematical representation of the magnetic specific heat, recently suggested by Inden, was applled to iron in an evaluation of the difference in Gibbs energy between the fcc and bcc states. The resulting equations were then used for a treatment of alloying effects in ferromagnetic metals due to the change of the Curie temperature. The result was approximated in order to conform to the subregular solution model. A strong asymmetric term was obtained.     

FEM‐Simulation of Drawing Out in Open Die Forging

Experiments and finite element simulations were performed in order to study how the bite ratio influences the closing of inner flaws such as voids and pipes in the open die forging process. Square rolled blooms of carbon steel with a transversal hole in the centre were forged with a constant height reduction but with different bites in order to study the closing of voids during the process. Corresponding finite element simulations were performed in full 3D with full thermo‐mechanical coupling. Also the influence of the friction and of the temperature gradient in the workpiece were studied. The elimination of an artificial defect by forging was successfully simulated by the finite element method. It is established that the closure of voids is highly dependent on the bite ratio. The closure of voids under the edge of the tool is however not improved by a higher bite ratio. There is a slight tendency that the situation under the tool edge is worse when the bite ratio is increased.     

Improving expert forecasts in reliability: Application and evidence for structured elicitation protocols

Quantitative expert judgements are used in reliability assessments to inform critically important decisions. Structured elicitation protocols have been advocated to improve expert judgements, yet their application in reliability is challenged by a lack of examples or evidence that they improve judgements. This paper aims to overcome these barriers. We present a case study where two world-leading protocols, the IDEA protocol and the Classical Model, were combined and applied by the Australian Department of Defence for a reliability assessment. We assess the practicality of the methods and the extent to which they improve judgements. The average expert was extremely overconfident, with 90% credible intervals containing the true realisation 36% of the time. However, steps contained in the protocols substantially improved judgements. In particular, an equal weighted aggregation of individual judgements and the inclusion of a discussion phase and revised estimate helped to improve calibration, statistical accuracy, and the Classical Model score. Further improvements in precision and information were made via performance weighted aggregation. This paper provides useful insights into the application of structured elicitation protocols for reliability and the extent to which judgements are improved. The findings raise concerns about existing practices for utilising experts in reliability assessments and suggest greater adoption of structured protocols is warranted. We encourage the reliability community to further develop examples and insights.     

A Macrophage-Based Method for the Assessment of the Reactive Oxygen Species (ROS) Activity of Atmospheric Particulate Matter (PM) and Application to Routine (Daily-24 h) Aerosol Monitoring Studies

Both short- and long-term exposure to particulate matter (PM) air pollution have been demonstrated to cause increases in cardiovascular disease, cancer, and respiratory disorders. Although the specific mechanisms by which exposure to PM cause these affects are unclear, significant evidence has accumulated to suggest that PM exposure leads to increased inflammation as the result of excessive production of reactive oxygen species (ROS) in critical cell types. In order to better understand how real-world PM exposure causes adverse health effects, there is a need to efficiently integrate metrics of PM toxicity into large scale air monitoring and health effects/epidemiology studies. Here we describe a rapid, inexpensive, method that can be employed to assess the potential of sub-mg masses of PM to generate oxidative stress in alveolar macrophage cells. Importantly, the approach is compatible with routine daily PM sampling programs such as those administered by EPA (Speciation trends network (STN), IMPROVE network, PM2.5 mass monitoring network), allowing for multiple samples to be assessed simultaneously with low volumes and brief exposure periods. We apply the method to a set of water extracts of daily PM2.5 samples (25–350 μ g PM mass) collected in the Denver-Metro area. Variations in the magnitude of the ROS response observed between the samples were only partially explained by differences in mass loading, with the highest levels of ROS being observed in samples collected during the summer months. This assay provides a very useful tool that can be coupled with detailed chemical analysis and statistical models to work towards the goal of attributing PM toxicity to specific real-world chemical sources.     

Surface characterization and catalytic properties of supported tungsten and platinum-tungsten carbide and oxycarbide

Bulk tungsten carbide has been prepared from ammonium paratungstate. Oxidic oxygen in relatively small amount is always present on the WC surface regardless of the method of carburization. Tungsten(VI) oxide in Al₂(WO₄)₃ can be reduced directly and in apparently one single step to the elemental W(0) state by Ar⁺ bombardment. Under H₂ the reduction starts at 720 K. In 12 and 28% W03 supported on -Al₂O₃ and in Al₂(WO₄)₃, almost 90% of the tungsten could be converted to the carbide form. Extensive hydrogenolysis products for n-hexane reactions on freshly prepared WC were observed while selectivity to isomerization associated with decrease in activity occurs upon exposure of the WC to oxygen at 620 K. Supported tungsten carbide(s) and oxycarbide(s) on -Al₂O₃ have comparable catalytic behaviour to those obtained on the bulk systems. The presence of Pt in these supported systems did not improve the catalytic performances and even did not show the catalytic properties of Pt. This was attributed to the severe conditions of catalyst preparations. Although the catalytic activity of tungsten carbide(s) obtained from the carburization of Al₂(WO₄)₃ is very low, the selectivity suggests the presence of tungsten carbide plus some WO, species.     

Hot rolling tests with steel bars and silicon nitride rolls

An experimental study was carried out to investigate the possibilities to use rolls made from Si₃N₄–TiN ceramic composite in hot rolling of steel. The results show that the wear of the ceramic material was lower than the wear of a reference cast iron. The results suggest that the Si₃N₄–TiN material is beneficial to use in a hot rolling process, on condition that the temperature of the work piece material is held sufficiently high.     

Bovine respiratory syncytial virus protects cotton rats against human respiratory syncytial virus infection

Human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) is the most frequent cause of severe respiratory infections in infancy. No vaccine against this virus has yet been protective, and antiviral drugs have been of limited utility. Using the cotton rat model of HRSV infection, we examined bovine respiratory syncytial virus (BRSV), a cause of acute respiratory disease in young cattle, as a possible vaccine candidate to protect children against HRSV infection. Cotton rats were primed intranasally with graded doses of BRSV/375 or HRSV/Long or were left unprimed. Three weeks later, they were challenged intranasally with either BRSV/375, HRSV/Long (subgroup A), or HRSV/18537 (subgroup B). At intervals postchallenge, animals were sacrificed for virus titration and histologic evaluation. Serum neutralizing antibody titers were determined at the time of viral challenge. BRSV/375 replicated to low titers in nasal tissues and lungs. Priming with 10(5) PFU of BRSV/375 effected a 500- to 1,000-fold reduction in peak nasal HRSV titer and a greater than 1,000-fold reduction in peak pulmonary HRSV titer upon challenge with HRSV/Long or HRSV/18537. In contrast to priming with HRSV, priming with BRSV did not induce substantial levels of neutralizing antibody against HRSV and was associated with a delayed onset of clearance of HRSV upon challenge. Priming with BRSV/375 caused mild nasal and pulmonary pathology and did not cause exacerbation of disease upon challenge with HRSV/Long. Our findings suggest that BRSV may be a potential vaccine against HRSV and a useful tool for studying the mechanisms of immunity to HRSV.