Post-Event Site Investigation,Monitoring, Stability Analysis,and Modeling of a Gas Pipeline Explosion

This paper describes the results of site investigations, monitoring, stability analyses, and soil-pipe interaction modeling of a built-up slope located near Pineto (Abruzzo Province, Central Italy), where a gas pipeline exploded on March 6th, 2015, due to heavy rains inducing slope movements. The slope is formed by OC clay, covered with an upper 10- to 14-m-thick clayey-sandy silt colluvial layer. The explosion in the upper portion of the slope caused extensive damage to existing buildings and threatened human lives. Soon after the event, a site investigation and monitoring program was carried out. A detailed topographic survey and hydrological data were analyzed in order to characterize possible critical rainfall events. The stability of the slope was analyzed both in pre- and in post-explosion conditions. The profiles of the DMT horizontal stress index K _D helped to identify multiple slip surfaces. Then, the results of the site investigation and stability analyses were used to implement a simplified finite element model aimed to describe the soil-pipeline interaction, taking into account the role of the observed wrinkle in the pipeline. The numerical simulations reveal the crucial role played by the slope movements, and by the wrinkle as well, in inducing the collapse of the pipe.     

Optimal-tuning PID control of adaptive materials for structural efficiency

The objective of this paper was solving the optimization problem of lightweight stiffened structures modelled as a two-dimensional domain in an efficient computational way. The underlying premise was that mass should be distributed in an efficient way, so as to use a minimum amount of material to accomplish the mechanical function. This premise was expressed as a global, multi-objective optimization problem in which stiffness and mass were conflicting objectives. Alternative local evolution rules were implemented to update mass density or Young’s modulus at each step of the iterative procedure. The solution of the structural optimization problem was accomplished by a novel automatic procedure consisting of two consecutive stages of control and optimization. In the first stage of Proportional Integral Derivative (PID) control gains were manually selected whereas in the second stage the finding of optimal values of control gains, target, and cost indices was allowed. In this study a bone-like material was adopted and a thin slab was analysed as a sample problem.     

Graph-based quadratic optimization: A fast evolutionary approach

Quadratic optimization lies at the very heart of many structural pattern recognition and computer vision problems, such as graph matching, object recognition, image segmentation, etc., and it is therefore of crucial importance to devise algorithmic solutions that are both efficient and effective. As it turns out, a large class of quadratic optimization problems can be formulated in terms of so-called “standard quadratic programs” (StQPs), which ask for finding the extrema of a quadratic polynomial over the standard simplex. Computationally, the standard approach for attacking this class of problems is to use replicator dynamics, a well-known family of algorithms from evolutionary game theory inspired by Darwinian selection processes. Despite their effectiveness in finding good solutions in a variety of applications, however, replicator dynamics suffer from being computationally expensive, as they require a number of operations per step which grows quadratically with the dimensionality of the problem being solved. In order to avoid this drawback, in this paper we propose a new population game dynamics (InImDyn) which is motivated by the analogy with infection and immunization processes within a population of “players.” We prove that the evolution of our dynamics is governed by a quadratic Lyapunov function, representing the average population payoff, which strictly increases along non-constant trajectories and that local solutions of StQPs are asymptotically stable (i.e., attractive) points. Each step of InImDyn is shown to have a linear time/space complexity, thereby allowing us to use it as a more efficient alternative to standard approaches for solving StQPs and related optimization problems. Indeed, we demonstrate experimentally that InImDyn is orders of magnitude faster than, and as accurate as, replicator dynamics on various applications ranging from tree matching to image registration, matching and segmentation.     

Preserving correctness during business process model configuration

A configurable process model captures a family of related process models in a single artifact. Such models are intended to be configured to fit the requirements of specific organizations or projects, leading to individualized process models that are subsequently used for domain analysis or solution design. This article proposes a formal foundation for individualizing configurable process models incrementally, while preserving correctness, both with respect to syntax and behavioral semantics. Specifically, assuming the configurable process model is behaviorally sound, the individualized process models are guaranteed to be sound. The theory is first developed in the context of Petri nets and then extended to a process modeling notation widely used in practice, namely Event-driven Process Chains.     

Sensitivity analysis of the rice model WARM in Europe: Exploring the effects of different locations,climates and methods of analysis on model sensitivity to crop parameters

Sensitivity analysis studies how the variation in model outputs can be due to different sources of variation. This issue is addressed, in this study, as an application of sensitivity analysis techniques to a crop model in the Mediterranean region. In particular, an application of Morris and Sobol' sensitivity analysis methods to the rice model WARM is presented. The output considered is aboveground biomass at maturity, simulated at five rice districts of different countries (France, Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain) for years characterized by low, intermediate, and high continentality. The total effect index of Sobol' (that accounts for the total contribution to the output variation due a given parameter) and two Morris indices (mean μ and standard deviation σ of the ratios output changes/parameter variations) were used as sensitivity metrics. Radiation use efficiency (RUE), optimum temperature (T_opt), and leaf area index at emergence (LAI_ini) ranked in most of the combinations site × year as first, second and third most relevant parameters. Exceptions were observed, depending on the sensitivity method (e.g. LAI_ini resulted not relevant by the Morris method), or site-continentality pattern (e.g. with intermediate continentality in Spain, LAI_ini and T_opt were second and third ranked; with low continentality in Portugal, RUE was outranked by T_opt). Low σ values associated with the most relevant parameters indicated limited parameter interactions. The importance of sensitivity analyses by exploring site × climate combinations is discussed as pre-requisite to evaluate either novel crop-modelling approaches or the application of known modelling solutions to conditions not explored previously. The need of developing tools for sensitivity analysis within the modelling environment is also emphasized.     

APROMORE: An advanced process model repository

Business process models are becoming available in large numbers due to their widespread use in many industrial applications such as enterprise and quality engineering projects. On the one hand, this raises a challenge as to their proper management: how can it be ensured that the proper process model is always available to the interested stakeholder? On the other hand, the richness of a large set of process models also offers opportunities, for example with respect to the re-use of existing model parts for new models. This paper describes the functionality and architecture of an advanced process model repository, named APROMORE. This tool brings together a rich set of features for the analysis, management and usage of large sets of process models, drawing from state-of-the art research in the field of process modeling. A prototype of the platform is presented in this paper, demonstrating its feasibility, as well as an outlook on the further development of APROMORE.     

Configurable multi-perspective business process models

A configurable process model provides a consolidated view of a family of business processes. It promotes the reuse of proven practices by providing analysts with a generic modeling artifact from which to derive individual process models. Unfortunately, the scope of existing notations for configurable process modeling is restricted, thus hindering their applicability. Specifically, these notations focus on capturing tasks and control-flow dependencies, neglecting equally important ingredients of business processes such as data and resources. This research fills this gap by proposing a configurable process modeling notation incorporating features for capturing resources, data and physical objects involved in the performance of tasks. The proposal has been implemented in a toolset that assists analysts during the configuration phase and guarantees the correctness of the resulting process models. The approach has been validated by means of a case study from the film industry.     

Forecasting peak air pollution levels using NARX models

Air pollution has a negative impact on human health. For this reason, it is important to correctly forecast over-threshold events to give timely warnings to the population. Nonlinear models of the nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous variable (NARX) class have been extensively used to forecast air pollution time series, mainly using artificial neural networks (NNs) to model the nonlinearities. This work discusses the possible advantages of using polynomial NARX instead, in combination with suitable model structure selection methods. Furthermore, a suitably weighted mean square error (MSE) (one-step-ahead prediction) cost function is used in the identification/learning process to enhance the model performance in peak estimation, which is the final purpose of this application. The proposed approach is applied to ground-level ozone concentration time series. An extended simulation analysis is provided to compare the two classes of models on a selected case study (Milan metropolitan area) and to investigate the effect of different weighting functions in the identification performance index. Results show that polynomial NARX are able to correctly reconstruct ozone concentrations, with performances similar to NN-based NARX models, but providing additional information, as, e.g., the best set of regressors to describe the studied phenomena. The simulation analysis also demonstrates the potential benefits of using the weighted cost function, especially in increasing the reliability in peak estimation.     

Payoff-monotonic game dynamics and the maximum clique problem

Evolutionary game-theoretic models and, in particular, the so-called replicator equations have recently proven to be remarkably effective at approximately solving the maximum clique and related problems. The approach is centered around a classic result from graph theory that formulates the maximum clique problem as a standard (continuous) quadratic program and exploits the dynamical properties of these models, which, under a certain symmetry assumption, possess a Lyapunov function. In this letter, we generalize previous work along these lines in several respects. We introduce a wide family of game-dynamic equations known as payoff-monotonic dynamics, of which replicator dynamics are a special instance, and show that they enjoy precisely the same dynamical properties as standard replicator equations. These properties make any member of this family a potential heuristic for solving standard quadratic programs and, in particular, the maximum clique problem. Extensive simulations, performed on random as well as DIMACS benchmark graphs, show that this class contains dynamics that are considerably faster than and at least as accurate as replicator equations. One problem associated with these models, however, relates to their inability to escape from poor local solutions. To overcome this drawback, we focus on a particular subclass of payoff-monotonic dynamics used to model the evolution of behavior via imitation processes and study the stability of their equilibria when a regularization parameter is allowed to take on negative values. A detailed analysis of these properties suggests a whole class of annealed imitation heuristics for the maximum clique problem, which are based on the idea of varying the parameter during the imitation optimization process in a principled way, so as to avoid unwanted inefficient solutions. Experiments show that the proposed annealing procedure does help to avoid poor local optima by initially driving the dynamics toward promising regions in state space. Furthermore, the models outperform state-of-the-art neural network algorithms for maximum clique, such as mean field annealing, and compare well with powerful continuous-based heuristics.