On the effectiveness of early life cycle defect prediction with Bayesian Nets

Standard practice in building models in software engineering normally involves three steps: collecting domain knowledge (previous results, expert knowledge); building a skeleton of the model based on step 1 including as yet unknown parameters; estimating the model parameters using historical data. Our experience shows that it is extremely difficult to obtain reliable data of the required granularity, or of the required volume with which we could later generalize our conclusions. Therefore, in searching for a method for building a model we cannot consider methods requiring large volumes of data. This paper discusses an experiment to develop a causal model (Bayesian net) for predicting the number of residual defects that are likely to be found during independent testing or operational usage. The approach supports (1) and (2), does not require (3), yet still makes accurate defect predictions (an R ² of 0.93 between predicted and actual defects). Since our method does not require detailed domain knowledge it can be applied very early in the process life cycle. The model incorporates a set of quantitative and qualitative factors describing a project and its development process, which are inputs to the model. The model variables, as well as the relationships between them, were identified as part of a major collaborative project. A dataset, elicited from 31 completed software projects in the consumer electronics industry, was gathered using a questionnaire distributed to managers of recent projects. We used this dataset to validate the model by analyzing several popular evaluation measures (R ², measures based on the relative error and Pred). The validation results also confirm the need for using the qualitative factors in the model. The dataset may be of interest to other researchers evaluating models with similar aims. Based on some typical scenarios we demonstrate how the model can be used for better decision support in operational environments. We also performed sensitivity analysis in which we identified the most influential variables on the number of residual defects. This showed that the project size, scale of distributed communication and the project complexity cause the most of variation in number of defects in our model. We make both the dataset and causal model available for research use.     

Modellierung in der Lehre an Hochschulen: Thesen und Erfahrungen

Zusammenfassung  Nicht erst seit Modellierung zum Modewort geworden ist, ist Modellierung ein wichtiges Thema in der Informatikausbildung. Dieser Beitrag beleuchtet in zw?lf Thesen das Warum, Was, Wie viel, Wo, Wann und Wie von Modellierung in der Lehre im Rahmen informatikbezogener Studieng?nge. Die Thesen basieren auf der Erfahrung des Verfassers mit einer seit über zehn Jahren gehaltenen Modellierungsvorlesung an der Universit?t Zürich sowie dem Gedankenaustausch mit anderen Hochschullehrerinnen und -lehrern im Rahmen der GI-Workshopreihe ,,Modellierung“. Zus?tzlich liefert eine Befragung von Absolventinnen und Absolventen an der Universit?t Zürich empirische Evidenz für eine Reihe der Thesen.     

Shear mode coupling and tilted grain growth of A1N thin films in BAW resonators.

Polycrystalline A1N thin films were deposited by RF reactive magnetron sputtering on Pt(111)/Ti electrode films. The substrates were tilted by an angle ranging from 40 degrees to 70 degrees with respect to the target normal. A low deposition temperature and a high sputter gas pressure were found ideal for tilted growth. The resulting grain tilt angle amounts to about half the substrate tilt angle. For coupling evaluation, 5 GHz solidly mounted resonator structures have been realized. The tilted grain A1N films exhibited a permittivity in the 9.5-10.5 range and loss tangent of 0.3%. Two shear modes as well as the longitudinal mode could be clearly identified. The coupling coefficient k2(eff) of the fundamental thickness shear mode (TS0) was found to be about 0.5%, which is compatible with a c-axis tilt of about 6 degrees.     

Modelling diffusion-controlled kinetics in equilibrium and driven alloys

Summary We introduce a very simple model for thermally activated atomic migration on a lattice, and several techniques to handle it. For thermodynamical systems, the model can be used for simulating decomposition paths taking into account relevant metallurgical features. Close to equilibrium, the simplest mean-field approximation of the model can be linearized with respect to the departure from equilibrium; one then gets a microscopic interpretation of classical phenomenological coefficients, such as mobility, interfacial transfer coefficient, rate constants for the coupled relaxation of concentration and order fields. Further away from the equilibrium, the nonlinearities can be taken into account in a consistent way. For driven alloys, i.e. alloys submitted to external forcing, forced atomic migration is added to the model and new features emerge: the model is supported by several experimental results some of which confirmed its predictions a posteriori.     

Metabolism-reproduction interactions in domestic animals

In farm animals as in human, reproduction is affected by changes in the level of energetic balance. The main factors that link metabolism and reproduction, like insulin, IGFs, glucose, FFA, leptin and NPY, act on hypothalamo-pituitary axis as well as on gonads by directly altering gametogenesis.     

Communication between patients with breast cancer and health care providers. Determinants and implications

BACKGROUND: This study evaluated the perceptions of patients with breast cancer of their medical interactions with providers. The determinants and psychological consequences of communication problems also were examined. METHODS: Ninety-seven patients with Stage I or II breast cancer completed a set of validated questionnaires before initiating postoperative therapy. Data on psychological distress were collected at baseline and 3-month follow-up, and multivariate models were fit to explain the relationship between pretreatment communication problems and subsequent psychological distress. Data on clinical variables were abstracted from medical records. RESULTS: A substantial proportion of patients (84%) reported difficulties communicating with the medical team. Communication problems were more common among patients who were less optimistic about their disease and had less assertive coping styles. Patient-reported communication problems were associated with increased anxiety, depression anger, and confusion at the 3-month follow-up. The association between communication problems and mood disturbance remained significant, although small, after adjusting for baseline mood disturbance, demographic, clinical, and coping style variables. CONCLUSION: Interventions that enhance communication between patients with breast cancer and their providers may improve patients' psychological adjustment to treatment. Conversely, interventions that lower distress and modify coping style may enhance communication.     

Transient characteristics of small salient-pole alternators

The use of small alternators, other than for standby purposes, is increasing and this has focused attention on the reliability and utility of the parameters normally quoted for such machines. Test procedures are described and methods used for parameter estimation discussed, with particular emphasis on the difficulties presented by small brushless machines