Predicting completed project cost using bidding data

Neural network and regression models have been developed to predict the completed cost of competitively bid highway projects constructed by the New Jersey Department of Transportation. Bid information was studied for inclusion as inputs to the models. Data studied included the low bid, median bid, standard devi9 ation of the bids, expected project duration and the number of bids. A natural log transformation of the data was found to improve the linear relationship between the low bid and completed cost. The stepwise regression procedure was applied, and yielded the best performing predictive model. This regression model used only the natural log of the low bid as independent variable to predict the natural log of the completed cost. Radial basis neural networks were also constructed to predict the final cost. The best performing regres4 sion model produced superior predictions to the best performing neural network model. Hybrid models that used a regression model prediction as an input to a neural network were also studied and were found to also produce reasonable predictions. The calculated models produced good predictions of the completed project cost, but were found to be deficient in predicting very large cost increases. Simple models using the natural log of the low bid as input produced the best results. From the analysis it may be concluded that additional information about the variability of the bids submitted does not provide useful information for predicting the final project outcome.     

Inclusionary zoning and affordable housing in Sydney

Abstract

Focus in this paper is placed on the issue of inclusionary zoning and developer contributions to provide affordable housing in the City West and Green Square urban redevelopment projects. Both are ambitious inner city urban renewal projects which form key parts of the New South Wales government's urban consolidation policy and also seek to maintain a social mix through the provision of social (i.e. affordable) housing.     

An evaluation tool for design quality: PFI sheltered housing

The complex procurement process entailed by the private finance initiative (PFI) means that clients need new capacities to manage their relationships with bidders and to assess project proposals if the desired level of design quality is to be achieved. To assist local authorities in their client role, a new Architectural Design Quality Evaluation Tool was developed. The aim was to improve the quality of design in residential sheltered housing, procured through the PFI. The tool was developed for and applied to a programme that will see the replacement of a local authority's entire sheltered housing stock. The tool has two functions: (1) to inform the client's assessment process and assist with the selection of the preferred bidding consortium through a series of stages in the PFI process; and (2) to improve the quality of all the submitted designs through an iterative process. Although several existing mechanisms are available for evaluating the performance attributes of buildings, few also tackle the less tangible amenity attributes, which are vital to the feeling of home. The new tool emphasizes the amenity attributes without neglecting performance.     

Rethinking Project Management: Researching the actuality of projects

This paper puts forth the somewhat controversial position that what is needed to improve project management in practice is not more research on what should be done or the frequency and/or use of traditional project management practices. We argue that while a great deal is written about traditional project management we know very little about the “actuality” of project based working and management. This paper formulates a research approach that takes seriously practitioner’s lived experience of projects. We explore the ontological, epistemological and methodological assumptions underlying this kind of research and provide examples of some project management research originating from this perspective. We conclude by summarizing the findings from these studies and providing insights into the map ahead for future such research. In this kind of work the attention is refocused on praxis, on context-dependent judgement, on situational ethics and on reflexivity which enables social actors to see how power actually functions in context.     

Imperfections in laser clading with powder and wire fillers

Laser cladding has been increasing in laser job shops both for component repair and manufacture. The process is quite mature nowadays, from a scientific approach, but companies need manufacturing guidelines and procedures to minimise the occurrence of defects and improve service quality and productivity. Typical imperfections occurring in laser clads can be divided into two major groups: shape and microstructural defects. The first group includes the contact angle of the clad track with the substrate surface and the total height of the clad including penetration. In the second group are considered lack of fusion, porosity and cracks. It is not clear to which extent the use of powder or wire as filler materials influence defect formation, though it is well known that these are mostly related to material properties and operational procedures. This paper presents the work done in laser cladding using filler wire and powder in real productive environment in job shop cases on different substrates: AISI 316 stainless steel, H13 and P20 tool steels. An overview of the defects that are more prone to appear in these materials is presented and strategies to minimise their occurrence proposed.     

Ultrananocrystalline Diamond Film as a Wear-Resistant and Protective Coating for Mechanical Seal Applications

Mechanical shaft seals used in pumps are critically important to the safe operation of the paper, pulp, and chemical process industry, as well as petroleum and nuclear power plants. Specifically, these seals prevent the leakage of toxic gases and hazardous chemicals to the environment and final products from the rotating equipment used in manufacturing processes. Diamond coatings have the potential to provide negligible wear, ultralow friction, and high corrosion resistance for the sliding surfaces of mechanical seals, because diamond exhibits outstanding tribological, physical, and chemical properties. However, diamond coatings produced by conventional chemical vapor deposition (CVD) exhibit high surface roughness (R_a ≥ 1 μm), which results in high wear of the seal counterface, leading to premature seal failure. To avoid this problem, we have developed an ultrananocrystalline diamond (UNCD) film formed by a unique CH₄/Ar microwave plasma CVD method. This method yields extremely smooth diamond coatings with surface roughness R_a = 20–30 nm and an average grain size of 2–5 nm. We report the results of a systematic test program involving uncoated and UNCD-coated SiC shaft seals. Results confirmed that the UNCD-coated seals exhibited neither measurable wear nor any leakage during long-duration tests that took 21 days to complete. In addition, the UNCD coatings reduced the frictional torque for seal rotation by five to six times compared with the uncoated seals. This work promises to lead to rotating shaft seals with much improved service life, reduced maintenance cost, reduced leakage of environmentally hazardous materials, and increased energy savings. This technology may also have many other tribological applications involving rolling or sliding contacts.     

The Detection and Characterization of Blisters On Carbon-Graphite Mechanical Seal Faces

Blisters that develop on carbon-graphite mechanical seal faces are irregularities in surface topography that result in poor sealing performance and a high incidence of catastrophic failure. On first inspection, a blister is a burnished area that is slightly elevated above the surrounding seal surface. In this study, the topography of several hundred blisters was examined with interference microscopy. The shape of the burnished area is typically elliptical or cylindrical. The leading edge against the direction of rotation of the mating seal ring extends abruptly upward from the surrounding seal surface. The trailing surface gradually merges into the parent seal face. Most blisters have a maximum height of 0.25 μm to 0.75 μm (10 μ-in to 30 μ-in).