Potential for reducing electricity demand for lighting in households: An exploratory socio-technical study

Illuminance data were collected from 18 UK dwellings during 1-week periods in spring 2007, to establish when luminaires were used and to calculate electricity consumption for lighting. Householders were also interviewed about lighting use and choices. The potential for reducing lighting electricity consumption by replacing incandescent bulbs with compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) is assessed. Mean weekly electricity consumption for lighting was 3.756 kW h and mean proportion of total electricity consumption used for lighting was 6.55%. It is notable, however, that participants generally expressed high levels of environmental awareness and that electricity consumption figures for less environmentally-aware households may differ. On average, households could have reduced lighting electricity consumption by 50.9% if all incandescent bulbs were replaced with CFLs. Even householders making extensive use of efficient lighting technologies expressed concerns about these technologies’ performance, but seemed willing to tolerate perceived shortcomings for environmental reasons. However, the study raises questions about whether people without strong environmental motivations can be convinced that efficient lighting technologies will meet their needs. It also raises questions about the effectiveness of policies phasing out general lighting service incandescent bulbs, as there is a risk that householders may switch to tungsten halogen bulbs rather than low-energy options.     

Optimal combination forecasts for hierarchical time series

In many applications, there are multiple time series that are hierarchically organized and can be aggregated at several different levels in groups based on products, geography or some other features. We call these “hierarchical time series”. They are commonly forecast using either a “bottom-up” or a “top-down” method.In this paper we propose a new approach to hierarchical forecasting which provides optimal forecasts that are better than forecasts produced by either a top-down or a bottom-up approach. Our method is based on independently forecasting all series at all levels of the hierarchy and then using a regression model to optimally combine and reconcile these forecasts. The resulting revised forecasts add up appropriately across the hierarchy, are unbiased and have minimum variance amongst all combination forecasts under some simple assumptions.We show in a simulation study that our method performs well compared to the top-down approach and the bottom-up method. We demonstrate our proposed method by forecasting Australian tourism demand where the data are disaggregated by purpose of travel and geographical region.     

A sparse Gaussian process regression model for tourism demand forecasting in Hong Kong

In recent years, Gaussian process (GP) models have been popularly studied to solve hard machine learning problems. The models are important due to their flexible non-parametric modeling abilities using Mercer kernels and the Bayesian framework for probabilistic inference. In this paper, we propose a sparse GP regression (GPR) model for tourism demand forecasting in Hong Kong. The sparsification procedure of the GPR model not only decreases the computational complexity but also improves the generalization ability. We experiment the proposed model with monthly demand data that are relevant to Hong Kong’s tourism industry, and compare the performance of the sparse GPR model with those of various kernel-based models to show its effectiveness. The proposed sparse GPR model shows that its forecasting capability outperforms those of the ARMA model and the two state-of-the-art SVM models.     

Perceptual processes used by drivers during overtaking in a driving simulator

This study investigated the control strategies and decision making of drivers who were executing overtaking maneuvers in a fixed-base driving simulator. It was found that drivers were frequently inaccurate in deciding whether it was safe to overtake in front of an oncoming vehicle. One source of error in this situation was the control strategy adopted by the driver; in several instances our drivers initiated an overtaking maneuver when the oncoming car's distance was above a critical value, even though there was not sufficient time to complete a safe maneuver. Adaptation to closing speed (produced by driving on a straight open road) also had large effects on overtaking behavior. For all participants, closing speed adaptation resulted in decisions that were delayed, of higher risk, and more variable. Actual or potential applications of this research include improved training for younger drivers and the development of in-car interfaces that reduce closing speed adaptation.     

Diagnosing item score patterns on a test using item response theory-based person-fit statistics.

Person-fit statistics have been proposed to investigate the fit of an item score pattern to an item response theory (IRT) model. The author investigated how these statistics can be used to detect different types of misfit. Intelligence test data were analyzed using person-fit statistics in the context of the G. Rasch (1960) model and R. J. Mokken's (1971, 1997) IRT models. The effect of the choice of an IRT model to detect misfitting item score patterns and the usefulness of person-fit statistics for diagnosis of misfit are discussed. Results showed that different types of person-fit statistics can be used to detect different kinds of person misfit. Parametric person-fit statistics had more power than nonparametric person-fit statistics. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

按照最严格的环境法规进行生产

中国、韩国以及美国的部分州都有类似于欧洲RoHS指令的环境法规,这些法规之间存在很小的差别但这些差别却又是不容忽视的。之所以说重要是因为这些差别集中在豁免、报告、合格证明等关键的地方。各国或地区依据不同的环境法规,产生了不同的新规定,这使国际贸易情况变得更加复杂     

Identification of Phenylpyrazolone Dimers as a New Class of Anti-Trypanosoma cruzi Agents

Chagas disease is becoming a worldwide problem; it is currently estimated that over six million people are infected. The two drugs in current use, benznidazole and nifurtimox, require long treatment regimens, show limited efficacy in the chronic phase of infection, and are known to cause adverse effects. Phenotypic screening of an in-house library led to the identification of 2,2′-methylenebis(5-(4-bromophenyl)-4,4-dimethyl-2,4-dihydro-3H-pyrazol-3-one), a phenyldihydropyrazolone dimer, which shows an in vitro pIC₅₀ value of 5.4 against Trypanosoma cruzi. Initial optimization was done by varying substituents of the phenyl ring, after which attempts were made to replace the phenyl ring. Finally, the linker between the dimer units was varied, ultimately leading to 2,2′-methylenebis(5-(3-bromo-4-methoxyphenyl)-4,4-dimethyl-2,4-dihydro-3H-pyrazol-3-one (NPD-0228) as the most potent analogue. NPD-0228 has an in vitro pIC₅₀ value of 6.4 against intracellular amastigotes of T. cruzi and no apparent toxicity against the human MRC-5 cell line and murine cardiac cells.     

Testing the validity of the spherical DEM model in simulating real granular screening processes

We investigate the flow of a granular material over a vibrated horizontal screen. We perform a direct quantitative comparison, across a range of operating conditions, between laboratory scale experiments and simulations using the discrete element method (DEM). We test the extent to which the commonly employed DEM approximation of particles being spherical affects the ability of the model to realistically reproduce the behaviour of industrial screening systems where the particles are generally non-spherical in shape.The simulation geometry and input particle size distribution are set up to exactly match the experimental system, which consists of a horizontal screen with a wire mesh cloth onto which quarry rock is fed at a series of input flow rates. The screen is vibrated, causing the granular bed to flow over the deck and vertically stratify with finer material passing through the screen, where it is collected in a series of bins located along the length of the screen. The size distribution of the material flowing through each section of the screen is found by analyzing the contents of each collection bin.The best agreement is found for very low flow rates, where the vast majority of the below aperture size material is rapidly captured just after it enters the screen in both the simulation and experiment. At higher flow rates, significant quantitative errors are found with the over-prediction of the flow rate through the screen for near grate sized particles. This is attributed to the higher rate of percolation through the bed and the easier capture by the screen surface of the spherical shaped material. The near aperture sized spherical particles also show a very strong tendency to peg the screen, becoming trapped in the screen openings and limiting further flow through those parts the screen. The use of spherical particles in the DEM simulation of vibrating screens is therefore found to be inadequate for modelling realistic flow and separation of particles that are not actually spherical.