Building a user model implicitly from a cooperative advisory dialog

This paper reviews existing methods for building user models to support adaptive, interactive systems, identifies sigificant problems with these approaches, and describes a new method for implicitly acquiring user models from an ongoing user-system dialog. Existing explicit user model acquisition methods, such as user edited models or model building dialogs put additional burden on the user and introduce artificial model acquisition dialogs. Hand coding stereotypes, another explicit acquisition method, is a tedious and error-prone process. On the other hand, implicit acquisition techniques such as computing presuppositions or entailments either draw too few inferences to be generally useful, or too many to be trusted.In contrast, this paper describes GUMAC, a General User Model Acquisition Component that uses heuristic rules to make default inferences about users' beliefs from their interaction with an advisory expert system. These rules are based on features of human action and conversation that constrain people's behavior and establish expectations about their knowledge. The application of these rules is illustrated with two examples of extended dialogs between users and an investment advisory system. During the course of these conversations, GUMAC is able to acquire an extensive model of the users' beliefs about the aspects of the domain considered in the dialog. These models, in turn, provide the sort of information needed by an explanation generator to tailor explanations the advisory system gives to its users.     

Assessing Environmental Risks: Lessons From Superfund

This essay analyzes the use of risk assessment in Superfund, the controversial American hazardous waste cleanup programme. We argue that risk assessment has been used in three ways in discussing policy options in this programme: as a metric for assessing performance; as a means for resolving conflicts; and as a tool for comparing different environmental initiatives. Use of risk reduction as an analytical tool in European efforts to clean up hazardous waste sites is discussed. We conclude that while risk assessment has potential utility for each of these applications, there are also accompanying technical and political difficulties.     

The US market for SO2 permits: Policy implications of the low price and trading volume

The price of SO₂ permits and the volume of trading under the US Acid Rain Program have been lower than expected. This can be explained by the creation and distribution of more permits than were initially authorized, by the sale of permits by high cost abaters who are subject to more stringent local emission constraints or who have irreversibly invested in high cost abatement technologies and by the deregulation of the natural gas and railroad industries which, in combination with incentives for cost-cutting under the new market approach to SO₂ control, has lowered marginal costs of abatement curves and made them more uniform across powerplants. The low price of permits and low trading volume are evidence that market approaches to pollution control can be more cost-effective than command and control regulations. The effect of public policies and technological changes on the allowance market are usefully examined in the context of an ideal market, in which the equilibrium price of allowances equals the marginal cost of abatement of individual powerplants. Using recent data from Coggins and Swinton (1996), we are able to explain the current price of permits with some accuracy.     

Combination calculi for uncertainty reasoning: representing uncertainty using distributions

There are many different methods for incorporating notions of uncertainty in evidential reasoning. A common component to these methods is the use of additional values, other than conditional probabilities, to assert current degrees of belief and certainties in propositions. Beginning with the viewpoint that these values can be associated with statistics of multiple opinions in an evidential reasoning system, we categorize the choices that are available in updating and tracking these multiple opinions. In this way, we develop a matrix of different uncertainty calculi, some of which are standard, and others are new. The main contribution is to formalize a framework under which different methods for reasoning with uncertainty can be evaluated. As examples, we see that both the “Kalman filtering” approach and the “Dempster–Shafer” approach to reasoning with uncertainty can be interpreted within this framework of representing uncertainty by the statistics of multiple opinions. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Polarization control in a vertical cavity surface emitting laser submitted to optical feedback

We study experimentally and theoretically two polarization effects in a vertical cavity surface emitting laser submitted to optical feedback. In a first experiment, we obtain flips between two linearly polarized laser modes up to a frequency of 50 MHz using an external cavity with a polarizer. In a second experiment, polarization self modulation is demonstrated up to a frequency of 2.6 GHz, using a quarter wave plate instead. Numerical calculations, based on a four levels model for the active medium, show a good agreement with the experiments.     

Assessing students' plans for college.

Based on a contemporary cognitive-psychoanalytic theory (control-mastery theory; J. Weiss, H. Sampson, & Mount Zion Psychotherapy Research Group, 1986), this study proposed that college students have plans for college that consist of conscious and unconscious goals and obstructions to be overcome in meeting those goals. The construct of unconscious guilt was used to mediate the dual goals of autonomy and attachment. The idiographic plan-formulation method was adapted to derive plans for 12 sophomore women. Acceptable interjudge reliabilities and criterion validity were demonstrated, and several themes in the goals and obstructions were illustrated. Students worried more about mothers than about fathers, particularly when they perceived the mother as weak or needy. The potential of the method for generating inferences about unconscious process for normative development is discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Memory for individual scent in hamsters (Mesocricetus auratus) as assessed by habituation methods.

The memory of hamsters (Mesocricetus auratus) for the flank scent of older male hamsters was investigated in a series of habituation experiments. In 2 types of habituation tasks (Exps 1 and 2), male hamsters habituated to the flank scent of 1 male and then increased their level of investigation to that of a novel male; similar results were obtained when the intervals between trials ranged from 1 sec to 2 days. When the test trial was 10 or 21 days after habituation (Exp 3), males discriminated between familiar and novel flank scents at 10 days but not at 21 days. The results demonstrate recognition of familiar and unfamiliar individual odors and excellent memory for these differences. Habituation techniques yield extremely robust results and may be useful for investigations of other aspects of individual signatures. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Maintaining global coherence during reading.

Previous research demonstrated a contradiction effect: Although text currently being processed was locally coherent, readers were aware of inconsistencies between a protagonist's actions and characteristics of the protagonists that were described earlier in the text and subsequently backgrounded. In the present experiments, not only the critical characteristics but also the protagonist were backgrounded. When the protagonist was reintroduced into the narrative in the context of carrying out an inconsistent action, the contradiction effect again occurred. In Exps 1–3, we examined the effects of several variables on the onset of the effect. In Exp 4, we presented probes at various points in the passage with results that supported the conclusion that the critical characteristics had been backgrounded before the sentence that contradicted them. Results are discussed in terms of several recent models in which currently active representational elements serve as retrieval cues for other inactive, but highly related, elements. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Analysis and simulation of substrate coupling in integrated circuits

A technique is presented which allows efficient calculation of substrate-coupling macromodels in integrated circuits. the technique can be used to calculate node-to-node resistances or impedances in substrate models. Examples of the technique applied to several test structures are presented.