Regional forecasts of photovoltaic power generation according to different data availability scenarios: a study of four methods

The development of methods to forecast photovoltaic (PV) power generation regionally is of utmost importance to support the spread of such power systems in current power grids. The objective of this study is to propose and to evaluate methods to forecast regional PV power 1 day ahead of time and to compare their performances. Four forecast methods were regarded, of which two are new ones proposed in this study. Together, they characterize a set of forecast methods that can be applied in different scenarios regarding availability of data and infrastructure to make the forecasts. The forecast methods were based on the use of support vector regression and weather prediction data. Evaluations were performed for 1 year of hourly forecasts using data of 273 PV systems installed in two adjacent regions in Japan, Kanto, and Chubu. The results show the importance of selecting the proper forecast method regarding the region characteristics. For Chubu, the region with a variety of weather conditions, the forecast methods based on single systems' forecasts and the one based on stratified sampling provided the best results. In this case, the best annual normalized root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) were 0.25 and 0.15 kWh/kWh_avg, respectively. For Kanto, with homogeneous weather conditions, the four methods performed similarly. In this case, the lowest annual forecast errors were 0.33 kWh/kWh_avg for the normalized RMSE and 0.202 kWh/kWh_avg for the normalized MAE. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reactive processing of thermoset/thermoplastic blends: A potential for injection molding

Poly(2,6-dimethyl-1,4-phenylene ether) (PPE) is an engineering plastic with high heat distortion temperature. Melt processing of neat PPE is usually accompanied with thermal degradation. The degradation problem is solved by blending with polystyrene to reduce the processing temperature. We propose an alternative using triallylisocyanurate (TAIC). TAIC is a low viscosity liquid that can be cured by peroxide, e.g. α,α′-bis(t-butylperoxy-m-isopropyl)benzene (PBP), to provide a thermoset. The PPE/TAIC mixture was shown to have the upper critical solution temperature (UCST) type phase behavior. At the single-phase regime above UCST and below the cure temperature (∼180°C for PBP), the mixture had a low viscosity, less viscous than a conventional thermoplastic such as PC and PP. That is, a nice window for injection molding was available, e.g., at 100°C to 160°C for a 50/50 blend. After injecting into a hot mold set at cure temperature, the blend cured in a short time (∼80% conversion in 5 min). Then the molded and partly cured material kept its shape and dimensions during post-cure in a hot chamber at higher temperature (e.g. 250°C). Using transmission electron microscopy and dynamic mechanical analyses, it was shown that the cured blend had a bicontinuous two-phase structure with periodic spacings of ∼30 nm, suggesting a structure formation via a spinodal decomposition driven by the increase in molecular weight of TAIC during cure. The cured material showed excellent flexural strength and high chemical resistance.     

Mutation Analysis of Radioresistant Early-Stage Cervical Cancer

Radiotherapy is a definitive treatment for early-stage cervical cancer; however, a subset of this disease recurs locally, necessitating establishment of predictive biomarkers and treatment strategies. To address this issue, we performed gene panel-based sequencing of 18 stage IB cervical cancers treated with definitive radiotherapy, including two cases of local recurrence, followed by in vitro and in silico analyses. Simultaneous mutations in KRAS and SMAD4 (KRAS^mt/SMAD4^mt) were detected only in a local recurrence case, indicating potential association of this mutation signature with radioresistance. In isogenic cell-based experiments, a combination of activating KRAS mutation and SMAD4 deficiency led to X-ray resistance, whereas either of these factors alone did not. Analysis of genomic data from 55,308 cancers showed a significant trend toward co-occurrence of mutations in KRAS and SMAD4. Gene Set Enrichment Analysis of the Cancer Cell Line Encyclopedia dataset suggested upregulation of the pathways involved in epithelial mesenchymal transition and inflammatory responses in KRAS^mt/SMAD4^mt cancer cells. Notably, irradiation with therapeutic carbon ions led to robust killing of X-ray-resistant KRAS^mt/SMAD4^mt cancer cells. These data indicate that the KRAS^mt/SMAD4^mt signature is a potential predictor of radioresistance, and that carbon ion radiotherapy is a potential option to treat early-stage cervical cancers with the KRAS^mt/SMAD4^mt signature.     

An Innovative Customized Biomimetic Hydrogel for Drug Screening Application Potential: Biocompatibility and Cell Invasion Ability

The ability of Pluronic F127 (PF127) conjugated with tetrapeptide Gly-Arg-Gly-Asp (GRGD) as a sequence of Arg-Gly-Asp (RGD) peptide to form the investigated potential hydrogel (hereafter referred to as 3DG bioformer (3BE)) to produce spheroid, biocompatibility, and cell invasion ability, was assessed in this study. The fibroblast cell line (NIH 3T3), osteoblast cell line (MG-63), and human breast cancer cell line (MCF-7) were cultured in the 3BE hydrogel and commercial product (Matrigel) for comparison. The morphology of spheroid formation was evaluated via optical microscopy. The cell viability was observed through cell counting Kit-8 assay, and cell invasion was investigated via Boyden chamber assay. Analytical results indicated that 3BE exhibited lower spheroid formation than Matrigel. However, the 3BE appeared biocompatible to NIH 3T3, MG-63, and MCF-7 cells. Moreover, cell invasion ability and cell survival rate after invasion through the 3BE was displayed to be comparable to Matrigel. Thus, these findings demonstrate that the 3BE hydrogel has a great potential as an alternative to a three-dimensional cell culture for drug screening applications.     

Durability of radiation-sterilized polymers III. Oxidation layer determined by chemiluminescence

Chemiluminescence (CL) analysis was used for determining the oxidation layer formed by the irradiation of polypropylene for medical supplies. The depth of the oxidation layer from the surface depended on dose rate and increased with decreasing dose rate. The oxidation occurred remarkably at a region near the surface area of the film where the diffusion of oxygen is more sufficient. On the contrary, there was very little oxidation in the interior portion. The oxidation layers of polypropylene samples irradiated with electron beam showed U-shaped profiles in the cross-section of film as did as a sample irradiated with γ-rays. However, the degree of oxidation by irradiation with electron beam was very small; CL intensity at the surface area was only one-third that for the γ-irradiated samples.     

Correlation of reactivity to hydrogenation and chemical structure of lignites

Three North Dakota lignites with almost the same percentage carbon have been used to determine the relation between chemical structure and reactivity to hydrogenation. Average structural indices of the lignites were estimated using the pyridine-soluble products after alcohol-alkali treatment, the structural indices obtained at various reaction times being extrapolated to zero reaction time. Hydrogenation was influenced by the average structure, with the lignite having higher aromaticity, higher molecular weight of the pyridine extract from the alcohol-alkali reaction product, larger aromatic ring size and lower content of aliphatic structure, showing a smaller degree of conversion.     

Two types of a passive safety containment for a near future BWR with active and passive safety systems

The paper presents two types of a passive safety containment for a near future BWR. They are named Mark S and Mark X containment. One of their common merits is very low peak pressure at severe accidents without venting the containment atmosphere to the environment. The PCV pressure can be moderated within the design pressure. Another merit is the capability to submerge the PCV and the RPV above the core level. The third merit is robustness against external events such as a large commercial airplane crash. Both the containments have a passive cooling core catcher that has radial cooling channels. The Mark S containment is made of reinforced concrete and applicable to a large power BWR up to 1830 MWe. The Mark X containment has the steel secondary containment and can be cooled by natural circulation of outside air. It can accommodate a medium power BWR up to 1380 MWe. In both cases the plants have active and passive safety systems constituting in-depth hybrid safety (IDHS). The IDHS provides not only hardware diversity between active and passive safety systems but also more importantly diversity of the ultimate heat sinks between the atmosphere and the sea water. Although the plant concept discussed in the paper uses well-established technology, plant performance including economy is innovatively and evolutionally improved. Nothing is new in the hardware but everything is new in the performance.