Spatio-temporal modelling of climate-sensitive disease risk: Towards an early warning system for dengue in Brazil

This paper considers the potential for using seasonal climate forecasts in developing an early warning system for dengue fever epidemics in Brazil. In the first instance, a generalised linear model (GLM) is used to select climate and other covariates which are both readily available and prove significant in prediction of confirmed monthly dengue cases based on data collected across the whole of Brazil for the period January 2001 to December 2008 at the microregion level (typically consisting of one large city and several smaller municipalities). The covariates explored include temperature and precipitation data on a 2.5^°×2.5^° longitude-latitude grid with time lags relevant to dengue transmission, an El Niño Southern Oscillation index and other relevant socio-economic and environmental variables. A negative binomial model formulation is adopted in this model selection to allow for extra-Poisson variation (overdispersion) in the observed dengue counts caused by unknown/unobserved confounding factors and possible correlations in these effects in both time and space. Subsequently, the selected global model is refined in the context of the South East region of Brazil, where dengue predominates, by reverting to a Poisson framework and explicitly modelling the overdispersion through a combination of unstructured and spatio-temporal structured random effects. The resulting spatio-temporal hierarchical model (or GLMM—generalised linear mixed model) is implemented via a Bayesian framework using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Dengue predictions are found to be enhanced both spatially and temporally when using the GLMM and the Bayesian framework allows posterior predictive distributions for dengue cases to be derived, which can be useful for developing a dengue alert system. Using this model, we conclude that seasonal climate forecasts could have potential value in helping to predict dengue incidence months in advance of an epidemic in South East Brazil.     

2009华裔设计师崛起

上世纪80年代日本设计师终成正果,以三宅一生、山本耀司、川久保玲为代表在强大的西方设计体系中占有一席之地。森英惠1977年正式进入巴黎高级时装界,其设计的蝴蝶图案、和服面料礼服在国际时装界引起轰动。凭借直观的东方风情惊艳巴黎,森英惠、高田贤三开始在西方绽放。紧接着三宅一生跳出了传统和服概念,以一种时尚的视觉,创造出人体和服装的和谐之美。山本耀司、川久保玲以黑色、奔放、宽松的形象,凭借蕴涵哲学思想和小众色彩的设计征服了时尚界。一干日本设计师在国际上掀起日本设计新浪潮,诠释并形成了与注重曲线的欧美时装不同的日本时装文化,创造出脱离人体曲线之上的又一种造型。上世纪60-80年代,正是日本经济的腾飞期。经过中国改革开放30年的飞速发展,从物美价廉的制造业拔得头筹,到设计的逐步介入,中国的设计力量现已今非昔比。     

Performance evaluation of an intelligent hybrid floor-collector system

The paper presents the intelligent features of a hybrid floor-slab/wall-air-collector system, that is being developed at the Fraunhofer Institut für Bauphysik, and was analyzed by the author. The system can be identified as an intelligent system for “truly intelligent” buildings, namely, a sub-system that integrates the building fabric and the interior temperature control system to produce an automatically controlled environment, that improves comfort while saving energy.     

Health-Related Stress, Affect, and Depressive Symptoms Experienced by Caregiving Mothers of Adults With a Developmental Disability.

The interrelationships among health-related stress, positive and negative affect, and depressive symptoms patterned in the dynamic model of affect (J. Reich, A. Zautra, & M. Davis, 2003) were examined using data from 932 women having an adult child with a developmental disability. Results indicate that women experience a moderate inverse correlation between positive and negative affect under conditions of low levels of health-related stress, whereas at high levels of stress, positive and negative affect become more strongly inversely correlated. Under high-stress conditions, both negative affect and positive affect have a stronger relationship to depressive symptoms than they do under low-stress conditions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Performance of tocopherols as antioxidants in ABS

Mixed tocopherols, γ‐tocopherol, and δ‐tocopherol were evaluated for antioxidant performance in acrylonitrile–butadiene–styrene by using oxidative induction time as the response. Three commonly used phenolic antioxidants and vitamin E (α‐tocopherol) were used as controls. Mixed tocopherols were found to have a greater antioxidant effect than the hindered phenolic antioxidants or vitamin E in acrylonitrile–butadiene–styrene. γ‐tocopherol was found to be primarily responsible for the improved performance of mixed tocopherols. J. VINYL. ADDIT. TECHNOL. 12:66–72, 2006. © 2006 Society of Plastics Engineers     

To accept or not to accept: Referrals and the maintenance of boundaries.

Psychotherapists of all disciplines are confronted with many dilemmas in accepting or declining referrals from colleagues and patients, as well as referrals that may entail contact outside the office. The authors explore countertransference, confidentiality, boundaries, and ethics related to referral sources. Case material illustrates clinical dilemmas. Some suggestions are offered to help therapists critically examine the conscious and unconscious influences affecting their decisions about whether to accept a referral. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Attention-deficit hyperactivity and conduct disorder: Comorbidity and implications for treatment.

The distinguishing and overlapping features of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and conduct disorder (CD) are discussed. Conclusions regarding comorbidity, treatment efficacy, and long-term outcome can be influenced by several factors, including diagnostic procedures and sample characteristics. The need to distinguish between referred and nonreferred samples is particularly crucial when considering treatment and comorbidity issues. The efficacy of psychosocial and pharmacological treatments in ADHD and CD children is reviewed as are the few studies of psychostimulant medication in comorbid youngsters. Suggestions regarding treatment planning and recommendations for treatment and research are described. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Imaginal exposure alone and imaginal exposure with cognitive restructuring in treatment of posttraumatic stress disorder.

This study investigated the extent to which providing cognitive restructuring (CR) with prolonged imaginal exposure (IE) would lead to greater symptom reduction than providing IE alone for participants with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Fifty-eight civilian survivors of trauma with PTSD were randomly allocated to IE/CR, IE, or supportive counseling (SC). Treatment involved 8 individual weekly sessions with considerable homework. Independent assessments were conducted pretreatment, posttreatment, and at 6-month follow-up. IE/CR and IE resulted in reduced PTSD and depression compared with SC at posttreatment and follow-up. Further, IE/CR participants had greater reductions in PTSD and maladaptive cognitive styles than IE participants at follow-up. These findings suggest that providing CR in combination with IE may enhance treatment gains. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Therapeutic Reactance as a Predictor of Outcome in the Treatment of Chronic Depression.

This study examined whether reactance would negatively influence treatment outcome in 347 patients diagnosed with chronic forms of depression and treated at 9 sites with either Nefazodone, cognitive-behavioral analysis system of psychotherapy (CBASP), or combination therapy. Contrary to our hypotheses, reactance positively predicted treatment outcome in CBASP on 2 of 4 scales. These effects were independent of the therapeutic alliance, which also positively predicted outcome. Reactance did not predict outcome in the groups receiving medication alone or in combination with CBASP. The findings suggest that reactance may be an asset in psychotherapy among chronically depressed individuals and that reactant patients can benefit from directive psychotherapy when therapists flexibly respond to perturbations in the therapeutic relationship. Results support the importance of Aptitude × Treatment interactions in psychotherapy outcome. The direction and significance of such interactions may vary with different forms of psychopathology. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)