The road to maturity: navigating between craft and science

C. Ebert presents his views on the state of software engineering as a field, its roots and inherent conflicts, its relationship to other engineering disciplines, where it is headed, and what we can do to influence that direction. T. Matsubara, T. Webb, M. Pezze, and O.W. Bertelsen offer a spectrum of further insights     

Development of a recurrent Sigma-Pi neural network rainfall forecasting system in Hong Kong

At the moment, weather forecasting is still an art — the experience and intuition of forecasters play a significant role in determining the quality of forecasting. This paper describes the development of a new approach to rainfall forecasting using neural networks. It deals with the extraction of information from radar images and an evaluation of past rain gauge records to provide shortterm rainfall forecasting. All of the meteorological data were provided by the Royal Observatory of Hong Kong (ROHK). Preprocessing procedures were essential for this neural network rainfall forecasting. The forecast of the rainfall was performed every half an hour so that a storm warning signal can be delivered to the public in advance. The network architecture is based on a recurrent Sigma-Pi network. The results are very promising, and this neural-based rainfall forecasting system is capable of providing a rain storm warning signal to the Hong Kong public one hour ahead.     

Prevalence of adrenal carcinoma among incidentally discovered adrenal masses. A retrospective study from 1989 to 1994. Gruppo Piemontese Incidentalomi Surrenalici

BACKGROUND: The incidental discovery of an adrenal mass poses the problem of distinguishing between the frequent benign masses and the infrequent malignant ones that require surgery. Univocal guidelines to approach this problem are unavailable. OBJECTIVE: To perform a survey of the clinical management of incidentally discovered adrenal masses (ie, adrenal incidentalomas). DESIGN: A multicentric retrospective analysis of hospital medical records of adrenal incidentalomas diagnosed during a 5-year period; the medical records were scrutinized for demographic data and clinical details by means of a specifically tailored questionnaire. SETTING: The major surgical and medical centers of Piedmont, a northern Italian region with approximately 4 million inhabitants. The recruitment pattern of these centers was unselected. PATIENTS: The definition of adrenal incidentaloma was limited to patients with a physical examination and a clinical history unindicative of adrenal disease. Exclusion criteria also included hypertension of suspected endocrine origin and a history of neoplasms known to metastasize frequently in the adrenal glands. Two hundred twenty-four medical records were collected, and 210 were analyzed (14 excluded a posteriori). RESULTS: Most patients were in their 50s and 60s, and women were predominantly affected. The frequency of adrenocortical cancer was 13% among patients operated on. The tumor diameter was highly correlated with the risk of cancer; a cutoff at 5 cm had a sensitivity of 93% with a specificity of 64% in discriminating between benign and malignant cortical lesions. CONCLUSIONS: The occurrence of adrenocortical carcinoma among adrenal incidentalomas is not rare. The evaluation of the mass size is a simple and effective method for selecting patients at risk for cancer. The indication for surgery of masses larger than 5 cm, or of masses of any diameter that have suspicious imaging characteristics, limits unnecessary operations and costs.     

A Metallographic Study of Abnormal Grain Growth During Aging of a β-Quenched Zr-1.14 Wt% Cr-0.08 Wt% Fe Alloy

Results are reported of a detailed optical and electron metallographic study of the effects of variations in quenching rate from the β-phase and aging temperature in the + ZrCr₂ phase region, on the recrystallization and grain growth characteristics of Zr-1.14 wt% Cr-0.08 wt% Fe alloy used for nuclear fuel sheathing. It is shown that certain quenching rates, which produce a mixed martensitic-Widmanstätten structure, should be avoided during the fabrication of fuel sheathing, since recrystallization and grain growth occurs at a much lower temperature than a material quenched at such a rate that the structure is wholly Widmanstätten or wholly martensitic. Preaging at 350 or 450°C prior to the high-temperature (700–750°C) aging reduces the incidence of recrystallization and grain growth.     

Artificial neural networks for coordination and control: The portability of experiential representations

It is time to locate connectionist representation theory in the new wave of robotics research. The utility of representations developed in artificial neural networks (ANNs) during learning has been demonstrated in cognitive science research since the 1980s. The research reported here puts learned representations to work in a decentered control task, the disembodied arm problem, in which a mobile robot operates an arm fixed to a table to pick up objects. There is no physical linkage between the arm and the robot and so the robot's point of view must be decentered. This is done by developing a modular Artificial Neural Net system in three stages: (i) a classifier net is trained with laser scan data to output transformationally invariant position classes; (ii) an arm net is trained for picking up objects; (iii) an inter net is trained to communicate and coordinate the sensing and acting. The completed system is shown to create new nonsymbolic transformationally invariant representations in order to perform the effective generalization of decentered viewpoints.     

Effect of hygiene measures, water sanitation and oral rehydration therapy on diarrhea in children less than five years old in the south of Ivory Coast

BACKGROUND: Gastric sucrose permeability is a noninvasive marker that reliably increases in association with gastrointestinal injury due to use of nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs. Despite the effect of Helicobacter pylori infection on the gastric mucosa, in a previous study we were unable to demonstrate that H. pylori infection was associated with abnormal gastric sucrose permeability. Our goal in this study was to explore further whether H. pylori infection changed gastric permeability; therefore, we evaluated the effect of treatment of H. pylori infection on gastric permeability to sucrose and the relation of sucrose permeability to density of polymorphonuclear leukocytes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Five hundred milliliters of a solution containing 100 gm of sucrose was ingested by the subject at bedtime. Overnight urine was collected and assayed for sucrose by high-performance liquid chromatography. Sucrose permeability was assessed both before and approximately 4 weeks after anti-H. pylori therapy. RESULTS: Seventeen asymptomatic H. pylori-infected volunteers participated; 8 were cured. Sucrose permeability was in the range commonly found in normal controls both before and after anti-H. pylori therapy (mean excretion, 76.3 mg; range, 13-171 mg). Gastric sucrose permeability correlated with the density of polymorphonulcear cell infiltration of the mucosa. Cure of the H. pylori infection was associated with a small but significant decrease in sucrose permeability (98.8 +/- 18 mg to 51.7 +/- 9.8 mg (p = .01). Sucrose permeability was greater in those with a high density of mucosal polymorphonuclear cells compared to those with lower scores (119.5 +/- 4 vs 71.4 +/- 13 for those with scores > or = 5 compared to scores < or = 4; p = .023). Failed therapy resulted in an increase in the mucosal density of polymorphonuclear infiltration and sucrose permeability (56.4 +/- 13 mg-99.7 +/- 19 mg pretreatment vs posttreatment, respectively; p = .031). CONCLUSION: H. pylori gastritis causes a small but measurable increase in gastric permeability to sucrose that may reflect epithelial transmigration of neutrophils.     

Low birth weight as an additional indication for chromosomal analysis

INTRODUCTION: Even though there are few epidemiological studies evaluating the birth weights of different groups of malformed babies with chromosomal abnormalities, it is widely known that infants with trisomy 18, and to a lesser degree those with trisomy 13 and other chromosomal alterations, have low birth weights. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In this study we present the analysis of the birth weights and gestational ages of a large sample of babies (23,155 malformed and a similar number of nonmalformed babies), separating the different groups of chromosomal anomalies and comparing the weight in the clinical groups of malformed infants. RESULTS: Most of the groups with chromosomal abnormalities present lower birth weights in comparison to the other groups. CONCLUSIONS: The results of our study support the conclusion that the relationship between chromosomal alterations and low birth weight is sufficiently important that such a low birth weight in children with minor or major anomalies should be considered as one more indication to perform chromosomal analysis.     

Magnetic resonance of the encephalon in 17 patients with ocular Beh?et''s disease

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the relationships between patient and physician pretreatment expectations of pain relief and subsequent pain relief reported by chronic pain patients immediately after treatment. DESIGN: Prospective study of consecutive patients undergoing a procedure in a pain clinic for treatment of chronic pain. Patients rated their current pain level and their expectation of pain relief immediately prior to undergoing a procedure (e.g., intravenous drug infusion, nerve block) for the treatment of chronic pain. Simultaneously and independently, the treating physician completed a similar questionnaire. At completion of the procedure, patients rated their current pain level and degree of pain relief. SETTING: University of Washington Multidisciplinary Pain Center procedure suite. PATIENTS: Forty-six consecutive chronic pain patients. INTERVENTION: Intravenous drug infusions and nerve blocks. OUTCOME MEASURES: Current pain and pain relief ratings. RESULTS: Patients' pain relief expectation ratings were not correlated significantly with their postprocedure pain relief ratings or pre-post procedure changes in pain ratings. However, a statistically significant correlation was found between physician expectations of pain relief and patient pain relief ratings and patient pre-post procedure changes in pain. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study suggest that physicians are better predictors than are patients of patients responses to these procedures and/or that physicians may somehow subtly communicate their expectations to patients during the procedure, and these expectations then influence patient response. Patient pretreatment expectations may not always play a significant role in nonspecific treatment effects.     

An EIA method on single donor solubilized HLA antigens for the identification of anti-HLA antibodies

Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) is an immunologically mediated disease in which activated T lymphocytes attack and destroy epithelial cells in the small intralobular bile ducts of genetically susceptible patients. This article reviews the results of treatment of PBC with immunomodulatory agents. Results with drugs such as glucocorticoids, azathioprine, and chlorambucil have been disappointing because of either limited efficacy (azathioprine), toxicity (chlorambucil), or both (glucocorticoids). Colchicine improved tests of liver function in three prospective studies and was associated with improved survival for up to 4 years. However, survival benefits were lost at 8 years. Colchicine appears to slow the rate of progression of PBC but not to stop it. Preliminary results suggest that colchicine may have synergistic effects if used together with ursodeoxycholic acid, particularly in patients who are only partially responsive to ursodeoxycholic acid. Results with cyclosporine have been disappointing because of limited efficacy and predictable toxicity. The modest improvement in tests of liver function and survival are counterbalanced by the development of hypertension in some and worsening renal function in most. There is little beneficial effect on symptoms or histology. Results with methotrexate are promising. There are improvements in symptoms and tests of liver function that are equal to those seen with ursodeoxycholic acid and significant improvement in liver histology. Some patients, particularly those with striking inflammation and granulomas in portal triads, appear to have achieved sustained remission while on methotrexate. The effects of methotrexate are additive to those of ursodeoxycholic acid in patients whose blood tests have responded only partially to ursodeoxycholic acid. The most effective treatment of PBC will most likely use a combination of drugs such as ursodeoxycholic acid, colchicine, and methotrexate.