Essential epidemiological mechanisms underpinning the transmission dynamics of seasonal influenza

Seasonal influenza has considerable impact around the world, both economically and in mortality among risk groups, but there is considerable uncertainty as to the essential mechanisms and their parametrization. In this paper, we identify a number of characteristic features of influenza incidence time series in temperate regions, including ranges of annual attack rates and outbreak durations. By constraining the output of simple models to match these characteristic features, we investigate the role played by population heterogeneity, multiple strains, cross-immunity and the rate of strain evolution in the generation of incidence time series. Results indicate that an age-structured model with non-random mixing and co-circulating strains are both required to match observed time-series data. Our work gives estimates of the seasonal peak basic reproduction number, R₀, in the range 1.6–3. Estimates of R₀ are strongly correlated with the timescale for waning of immunity to current circulating seasonal influenza strain, which we estimate is between 3 and 8 years. Seasonal variation in transmissibility is largely confined to 15–30% of its mean value. While population heterogeneity and cross-immunity are required mechanisms, the degree of heterogeneity and cross-immunity is not tightly constrained. We discuss our findings in the context of other work fitting to seasonal influenza data.     

Outbreaks of H5N1 in poultry in Thailand: the relative role of poultry production types in sustaining transmission and the impact of active surveillance in control

H5N1, highly pathogenic avian influenza, continues to pose a public health risk in the countries of southeast Asia where it has become endemic. However, in Thailand, which experienced two of the largest recorded epidemics in 2004–2005, the disease has been successfully reduced to very low levels. We fitted a spatio-temporal model of the spread of infection to outbreak data collected during the second wave of outbreaks to assess the extent to which different poultry types were responsible for propagating infection. Our estimates suggest that the wave of outbreaks would not have been possible without the contribution of backyard flocks to the susceptibility of a sub-district. However, we also estimated that outbreaks involving commercial poultry, a much larger sector in Thailand than in neighbouring countries, were disproportionately infectious, a factor which was also crucial in sustaining the wave. As a result, implemented measures that aim to reduce the role of commercial farms in the spread of infection, such as the drive to bring aspects of the supply chain ‘in house’, may help to explain the subsequent success in controlling H5N1 in Thailand. We also found that periods of active surveillance substantially improved the rate of outbreak detection.     

Case Study: Flood Mitigation of the Muda River, Malaysia

The 2003 flood of the Muda River reached 1,340?m3/s at Ladang Victoria and adversely impacted 45,000 people in Malaysia. A flood control remediation plan proposed a levee height based on a 50-year discharge of 1,815?m3/s obtained from hydrologic models. This design discharge falls outside the 95% confidence intervals of the flood frequency analysis based on field measurements. Instream sand and gravel mining operations also caused excessive riverbed degradation, which largely off sets apparent benefits for flood control. Pumping stations have been systematically required at irrigation canal intakes. Several bridge piers have also been severely undermined and emergency abutment protection works were needed in several places. Instream sand and gravel mining activities should be replaced with offstream mining in the future.     

Singular Value Decomposition Combined With Analytical Method for Tokamak Plasma Tomography

Several arrays of soft X-ray detectors are used with the Fourier expansion for angular direction and Zernicke polynomial on radial direction during an analytical method tomography. A truncation of two expansions is necessary. We used singular value decomposition in order to solve the set of equations. This technique reconstructs better images of tomography.     

Deep underwater image enhancement through colour cast removal and optimization algorithm

ABSTRACT

Blue–green colour cast effect and low contrast are common problems suffered by deep underwater images. This paper introduces a new method which consists of two major steps: red channel correction based on green and blue channels (RCCGB), and simultaneous contrast stretching and mean pixel enhancement (SCSMPE). The RCCGB is designed to minimize the effect of blue–green illumination. This step considers the differences between the red channel and other channels in terms of total pixel values. The second major step, SCSMPE is specifically designed to perform contrast stretching and improve the mean pixel value simultaneously through particle swarm optimization (PSO). Based on the visual observation, the proposed method significantly reduces the effect of the blue–green colour cast and improves the image contrast. Furthermore, the average quantitative values for 300 underwater images also demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method.     

Fusion of carbon nanotubes for fabrication of field emission cathodes

Consolidated carbonaceous samples prepared by spark plasma sintering of multi-walled carbon nanotubes are analyzed, and the effect of the heating regime on their morphology, density, thermal stability, electron field emission and adhesive behavior studied. The trend in the field emission properties of these samples is explained by the changes in the mobility of the nanotube tips. The effect of such changes in the number of free nanotube tips is also deduced from micro-adhesion data, obtained from pull-off tests using atomic force microscopy.     

Evaluation of post-fault restoration strategies in multi-domain networks

Although multi-domain survivability is a major concern for operators, few studies have considered the design of post-fault restoration schemes. This paper proposes two such strategies, based upon hierarchical routing and signaling crankback, to handle single and multi-link failure events in multi-domain IP/MPLS networks (also extendible to optical DWDM networks). Specifically, the hierarchical routing strategy relies upon abstracted domain information to compute inter-domain loose routes, whereas the crankback scheme applies signaling re-tries to restore paths in a domain-by-domain manner. The performance of these proposed solutions is then analyzed and compared via simulation.     

On‐line system identification of structures using wavelet‐Hilbert transform and sparse component analysis

A new wavelet‐Hilbert transform based sparse component analysis (WHT‐SCA) method is presented for online system identification in indeterminate conditions. The instantaneous phase ratios of output signals are obtained by using a wavelet‐Hilbert transform based filter; and the out‐of‐phase data, that causes errors in identification accuracy, is detected and eliminated. Then, modal parameters of the structure are identified through existing relationships between the dispersion of filtered data in the frequency domain. Subsequently, to demonstrate the capability of the online identification, a new controller is introduced by combining the WHT‐SCA and a semi‐active tuned mass damper (STMD), resulting in creation of smart structures. The performance of the proposed method and controller is investigated through examples. The results demonstrate that, modal parameters of structures are identified accurately even with noise contamination and limited number of sensors. Also, the STMD is effectively robust against any variations in modal parameters of the structure.     

Modeling the Nonlinear Behavior of Concrete Masonry Walls Retrofitted with Steel Studs under Blast Loading

This paper presents the results of an analytical investigation of one-way unreinforced masonry (URM) walls retrofitted with externally anchored steel studs and subjected to blast loads. Using the wall geometrical and material properties, deflected shape, and crack pattern as input, a nonlinear model is developed to predict the inward force-displacement relationship of the retrofitted walls. In addition, using a rigid body analysis, a simple bilinear force-displacement relationship is developed to model the outward force-displacement relationship of the walls. Utilizing these two force-displacement relationships (resistance functions), a generalized single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) model is developed to capture the nonlinear out-of-plane dynamic response of the retrofitted walls under blast loads. The SDOF model captured the experimentally observed displacement responses of the tested walls with reasonable accuracy. The model was also used to investigate the influence of block thickness, wall slenderness ratio, blast load intensity, and blast pulse shape on the out-of-plane dynamic response of retrofitted walls. The results demonstrated that anchored steel-stud systems could significantly enhance the out-of-plane capacity of the retrofitted walls by increasing their out-of-plane capacity and reducing their displacement.     

Performance of Unreinforced Masonry Walls Retrofitted with Externally Anchored Steel Studs under Blast Loading

Six full-scale concrete masonry walls were tested under free-field blast loading using different charge sizes up to 250?kg of ammonium nitrate/fuel oil (ANFO) and at a constant stand-off distance of 15.0?m to cover a wide range of expected damage levels. Five walls were retrofitted with cold-formed steel studs anchored to the wall backs and were compared to the remaining as-built wall. Significant enhancement to the out-of-plane blast resistance of the retrofitted walls, compared to the as-built wall, was observed. This enhancement is attributed to the development of a tied-arch action in the retrofitted walls in which the masonry forms a compression strut while the steel studs serve as the tie. A simplified single-degree-of-freedom model was used to analyze the experimental results, and the model results agreed well with the observed damage levels and the resistances of the walls. In addition, the effectiveness of the proposed retrofit technique was evaluated in terms of strength enhancement and wall deflection reduction. The test results were also compared with those predicted by available blast damage assessment models for unreinforced masonry walls. However, it was found that available models, which do not account for the tied-arch mechanism, greatly underestimate the actual blast capacity of the retrofitted walls because of the assumption of a tensile flexural failure mode. Additionally, the proposed retrofit technique shifts the mode of failure from flexure to shear.