Empirical assessment of a threshold model for sylvatic plague.

Plague surveillance programmes established in Kazakhstan, Central Asia, during the previous century, have generated large plague archives that have been used to parameterize an abundance threshold model for sylvatic plague in great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) populations. Here, we assess the model using additional data from the same archives. Throughout the focus, population levels above the threshold were a necessary condition for an epizootic to occur. However, there were large numbers of occasions when an epizootic was not observed even though great gerbils were, and had been, abundant. We examine six hypotheses that could explain the resulting false positive predictions, namely (i) including end-of-outbreak data erroneously lowers the estimated threshold, (ii) too few gerbils were tested, (iii) plague becomes locally extinct, (iv) the abundance of fleas was too low, (v) the climate was unfavourable, and (vi) a high proportion of gerbils were resistant. Of these, separate thresholds, fleas and climate received some support but accounted for few false positives and can be disregarded as serious omissions from the model. Small sample size and local extinction received strong support and can account for most of the false positives. Host resistance received no support here but should be subject to more direct experimental testing.     

Hybrid finite-element method for discretising cylindrically symmetric parts in electrotechnical models

In many technical devices such as transformers and electrical machines, large differences in geometric dimensions are observed. As a consequence, the generation of a 3D computational grid for the whole device leads to unacceptably large numbers of elements or can even fail. In addition to the commonly applied cartesian or cylindrical symmetries of the overall geometry, the model can be subdivided into parts featuring translational or cylindrical symmetries. Such parts are discretised separately, accounting for the local symmetry, and are then combined with the surrounding 3D model. Excitations and boundary conditions of the submodels are not necessarily symmetric but are expected to be smooth in the direction of the symmetry. Then, the field distribution at the interface is well approximated by a set of spectral elements along the dimension of symmetry. Coupling between the model parts is carried out by means of Lagrange multipliers. A single-phase transformer with thin insulation sheets is taken as an example to illustrate the proposed hybrid discretisation. The cross-section of the cylindrically symmetric part containing thin sheets, is represented by a fine 2D finite-element mesh so that all the geometrical details can be resolved, and the rest of the structure is discretised by a 3D mesh. Nevertheless, a fully 3D field distribution is calculated in all model parts. Only a small number of harmonic functions is needed to account for the azimuthal field variation at the cylindrical interface. Hence, the number of unknowns in the numerical model is reduced significantly, while a high level of accuracy is maintained     

Caught between historical experience and high hopes: automation atthe Dutch Postal Cheque and Clearing Service, 1950-1965

Since the Netherlands lacks an indigenous computer industry, the article concentrates on the use of computing technologies. It deals specifically with the Dutch giro system, the country's initial step toward automation in the early 1950s. Automation was achieved in 1965. Several organizational processes and the development of computer technology throughout the fifties contributed to the delay of automation and the ultimate choice and implementation of more than 20 IBM 1401 computer systems. The paper sheds light on the importance of studying how computer technology is used as well as how the technologies are developed     

Efficacy and tolerability of brodimoprim in otitis

We managed four cases of lymphorrhea after extraperitoneal pelvic lymphadenectomy by means of minocycline instillation into the cavity around the drainage tube. Two patients had concomitantly undergone cystectomy and one prostatectomy via the extraperitoneal approach. In all four cases, the lymphorrhea markedly subsided, which dramatically shortened the duration of drainage. No side effects occurred. These findings indicate that minocycline instillation is an efficacious treatment for lymphorrhea.     

Internal excitation of intermediate mass fragments from collisions of 36Ar+Ag nuclei at 35 MeV/nucleon

An extruding wire knife was used to give adult male CFHB rats a minimally traumatic unilateral mechanical lesion of the medial forebrain bundle. In addition, some rats received bilateral intrastriatal injections of one of three fluorescent retrograde tracers either eight days before or eight days after the lesion. Injections made after the lesion revealed that about half of the animals had complete lesions of the nigrostriatal tract, while the other half were incompletely lesioned, the mean proportion of non-axotomized neurons being 23%. Over the 10 weeks following the lesions, the number of tyrosine hydroxylase-immunoreactive cells in the lesioned substantia nigra fell linearly, reaching a mean of 29% of that of the control substantia nigra. In the animals which were completely lesioned, neuronal survival at 10 weeks varied between 6 and 12%. That the disappearance of tyrosine hydroxylase-immunoreactive neurons was due to cell death rather than the loss of tyrosine hydroxylase itself was confirmed by labelling the cells with Fluoro Gold before axotomy; the tracer was seen in survival neurons, microglia and in a few involuted neurons which continued to be tyrosine hydroxylase-immunoreactive. This percentage of neurons surviving axotomy corresponds to the proportion of substantia nigra neurons which project to the contralateral striatum, and these neurons were in the region of the substantia nigra from which the contralateral projection originated. It is concluded that following mechanical transection of the nigrostriatal tract, all truly axotomized substantia nigra neurons die over a period of about 10 weeks.     

EGF/EGF-R system and benign breast disease during and following the treatment of gynaecological pathologies with an analogue of LH-RH

Clinical and pathological changes of the mammary gland have been studied in 64 women affected by symptomatic Benign Breast Disease (BBD) coexisting with endometriosis or uterine leiomyomata. These patients were rendered hypoestrogenic by subcutaneous administration of the LH-RH analogue Goserelin depot [D-ser (tBu)6 Aza-Gly10-GnRH (ICI118630)] performed every 28 days, for six months. They were evaluated clinically and ultrasonographically before and after treatment to find possible changes of BBD as well as of endometriosis or uterine leiomyomata. Mammary biopsies were performed before and after treatment in all the patients to study the changes of EGF-R expression. Results showed that clinical improvement is accompanied with a reduction of EGF-R expression.     

Regeneration of active receptor recognition domains on the B subunit of cholera toxin by formation of hybrids from chemically inactivated derivatives

In order to test the hypothesis that binding sites of cholera toxin for its receptor, the monosialoganglioside GM1, are shared between adjacent beta-polypeptide chains, two inactive chemical derivatives of the B subunit of cholera toxin (CTB) were prepared and were subsequently used for the construction of hybrid CTB pentamers. One inactive derivative consisted of CTB specifically modified in the single essential Trp-88 residue of each beta-chain. This residue was modified by formylation, a treatment preserving the structural integrity of CTB. The other inactive derivative consisted of CTB specifically succinylated in three amino groups located in or near the receptor binding site. Using [1,4-14C]succinic anhydride for the site-specific succinylation and analysis of radiolabeled tryptic fragments of S-carboxymethylated [14C]sssCTB revealed that the amino groups specifically modified were the alpha-amino group of Thr-1 and the epsilon-amino groups of respectively Lys-34 and Lys-91. Upon submitting equal amounts of formylated CTB and site-specific succinylated CTB to a denaturation-renaturation cycle, hybrid pentamers were formed which in contrast to the parental compounds were able to bind GM1. The affinity of hybrid CTB for GM1, as estimated by a competitive solid-phase radiobinding assay was unexpectedly high and only 2.5-fold lower than that of its native counterpart. The number of active binding sites on hybrid CTB was determined from: (i) titration with the oligosaccharide moiety of GM1 (oligo-GM1) and monitoring the reversal of the Trp fluorescence quenching by iodide ions and (ii) rapid gel filtration over a superdex HR column of a mixture of hybrid CTB and an excess of 3H-labeled oligo-GM1. The data are in agreement with the formation of one active binding per four reconstituted binding sites in hybrid CTB, which is consistent with a random association of CTB monomers during the denaturation-renaturation cycle.     

Practical accuracy analysis of some existing effective channellength and series resistance extraction methods for MOSFET's

A method to analyze the accuracy of the extracted values for the channel length (L_eff) and series resistance (R_s) of MOSFET devices is presented. The analysis is based on a statistical argument being the variance σ of the extracted results. This variance is found to be a good measure for the accuracy of the particular extraction method used. It is shown that, in the case of deep submicron technologies, errors as large as 200 nm for ΔL can be made for these extraction methods depending on the process design and the process control. The use of a single transistor method is suggested as a possible solution to the low accuracy of the L-array methods