Long range peak demand forecasting under conditions of high growth

An extended logistic model with a varying asymptotic upper bound for long-range peak demand forecasting is described. The model has been applied to a typical fast growing system, the Saudi Consolidated Electric Company. The forecasts are compared with actual demands and with those obtained from classical forecasting methods. The model gave relatively accurate peak demand forecasts compared with other classical methods. The model with a single load observation is capable of producing several peak demand forecasts corresponding to different levels of maximum temperature and various levels of social activity. The forecasts produced by the model were also stable irrespective of the length of the ex-post simulation period     

Displacement control crack-growth instability in an elastic-softening material

The criterion for crack growth instability in an elastic-softening material that is subjected to displacement control loading conditions is examined. A theoretical analysis of the model of a solid containing two symmetrically situated deep cracks and with tensile loading of the remaining ligament, defines the criterion for crack growth instability. The criterion is expressed in terms of the material's softening characteristics and the solid's geometrical parameters. The analysis covers the complete spectrum of material behaviour from the case where the softening zone is very small to the case where instability does not occur until the softening zone traverses the ligament between the crack tips.     

Active,passive and transpassive dissolution of a nickel base super alloy in concentrated acid mixture solution

The electrochemical and corrosion behaviour of a nickel base super alloy (C-263) has been investigated in the deaerated binary and ternary solution mixture of concentrated phosphoric acid, acetic acid, sulphuric acid, nitric acid or water using potentiostatic technique at 35°C. The possibilities of electropolishing of this alloy in these solution mixtures have been also explored. The alloy showed distinct active, passive and transpassive behaviour in the experimental solutions. The alloy remained active and turned passive in the negative potential region. Transpassive dissolution of the alloy is observed and electropolishing is achieved in this region. The best electropolishing is obtained in 50% H₃PO₄ + 40% CH₃COOH + 10% H₂SO₄. Higher content of water in the electrolytic solution is not useful for electropolishing of the alloy The experimental results also suggest that a current plateau in the transpassive potential region is not a sufficient condition to achieve electropolishing.     

Optimized partitioning of a wavelength distributed data interfacering network

A fiber optic ring network, such as fiber distributed data interface (FDDI), can be operated over multiple wavelengths on its existing fiber plant consisting of point-to-point fiber links. Using wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) technology, FDDI nodes can be partitioned to operate over multiple subnetworks, with each subnetwork operating independently on a different wavelength, and inter-subnetwork traffic forwarding performed by a bridge. For this multiwavelength version of FDDI, which we refer to as wavelength distributed data interface (WDDI), we examine the necessary upgrades to the architecture of a FDDI node, including its possibility to serve as a bridge. The main motivation behind this study is that, as network traffic scales beyond (the single-wavelength) FDDI's information-carrying capacity, its multiwavelength version, WDDI, can gracefully accommodate such traffic growth. A number of design choices exist in constructing a good WDDI network. Specifically, we investigate algorithms using which, based on prevailing traffic conditions, partitioning of nodes into subnetworks can be performed in an optimized fashion. Our algorithms partition the nodes into subrings, such that the total traffic flow in the network and/or the network-wide average packet delay is minimized     

A new monitoring system for piping systems in fossil fired power plants

A CEC-funded project has been performed to tackle the problem of producing an advanced Life Monitoring System (LMS) which would calculate the creep and fatigue damage experienced by high temperature pipework components. Four areas were identified where existing Life Monitoring System technology could be improved:

1. 1. the inclusion of creep relaxation

2. 2. the inclusion of external loads on components

3. 3. a more accurate method of calculating thermal stresses due to temperature transients

4. 4. the inclusion of high cycle fatigue terms.

The creep relaxation problem was solved using stress reduction factors in an analytical in-elastic stress calculation. The stress reduction factors were produced for a number of common geometries and materials by means of non-linear finite element analysis. External loads were catered for by producing influence coefficients from in-elastic analysis of the particular piping system and using them to calculate bending moments at critical positions on the pipework from load and displacement measurements made at the convenient points at the pipework. The thermal stress problem was solved by producing a completely new solution based on Green's Function and Fast Fourier transforms. This allowed the thermal stress in a complex component to be calculated from simple non-intrusive thermocouple measurements made on the outside of the component. The high-cycle fatigue problem was dealt with precalculating the fatigue damage associated with standard transients and adding this damage to cumulative total when a transient occurred.

The site testing provided good practical experience and showed up problems which would not otherwise have been detected.     

Experience in High-Temperature Thermomechanical Treatment with Helical Reduction in the Production of Axisymmetric Parts

Metal Science and Heat Treatment -     

Use of166mHo for calibration of gamma-ray spectrometers with semiconductor detectors

Translated from Atomnaya Énergiya, Vol. 67, No. 3, pp. 215–216, September, 1989.