The road to maturity: navigating between craft and science

C. Ebert presents his views on the state of software engineering as a field, its roots and inherent conflicts, its relationship to other engineering disciplines, where it is headed, and what we can do to influence that direction. T. Matsubara, T. Webb, M. Pezze, and O.W. Bertelsen offer a spectrum of further insights     

Development of a recurrent Sigma-Pi neural network rainfall forecasting system in Hong Kong

At the moment, weather forecasting is still an art — the experience and intuition of forecasters play a significant role in determining the quality of forecasting. This paper describes the development of a new approach to rainfall forecasting using neural networks. It deals with the extraction of information from radar images and an evaluation of past rain gauge records to provide shortterm rainfall forecasting. All of the meteorological data were provided by the Royal Observatory of Hong Kong (ROHK). Preprocessing procedures were essential for this neural network rainfall forecasting. The forecast of the rainfall was performed every half an hour so that a storm warning signal can be delivered to the public in advance. The network architecture is based on a recurrent Sigma-Pi network. The results are very promising, and this neural-based rainfall forecasting system is capable of providing a rain storm warning signal to the Hong Kong public one hour ahead.     

Prevalence of adrenal carcinoma among incidentally discovered adrenal masses. A retrospective study from 1989 to 1994. Gruppo Piemontese Incidentalomi Surrenalici

BACKGROUND: The incidental discovery of an adrenal mass poses the problem of distinguishing between the frequent benign masses and the infrequent malignant ones that require surgery. Univocal guidelines to approach this problem are unavailable. OBJECTIVE: To perform a survey of the clinical management of incidentally discovered adrenal masses (ie, adrenal incidentalomas). DESIGN: A multicentric retrospective analysis of hospital medical records of adrenal incidentalomas diagnosed during a 5-year period; the medical records were scrutinized for demographic data and clinical details by means of a specifically tailored questionnaire. SETTING: The major surgical and medical centers of Piedmont, a northern Italian region with approximately 4 million inhabitants. The recruitment pattern of these centers was unselected. PATIENTS: The definition of adrenal incidentaloma was limited to patients with a physical examination and a clinical history unindicative of adrenal disease. Exclusion criteria also included hypertension of suspected endocrine origin and a history of neoplasms known to metastasize frequently in the adrenal glands. Two hundred twenty-four medical records were collected, and 210 were analyzed (14 excluded a posteriori). RESULTS: Most patients were in their 50s and 60s, and women were predominantly affected. The frequency of adrenocortical cancer was 13% among patients operated on. The tumor diameter was highly correlated with the risk of cancer; a cutoff at 5 cm had a sensitivity of 93% with a specificity of 64% in discriminating between benign and malignant cortical lesions. CONCLUSIONS: The occurrence of adrenocortical carcinoma among adrenal incidentalomas is not rare. The evaluation of the mass size is a simple and effective method for selecting patients at risk for cancer. The indication for surgery of masses larger than 5 cm, or of masses of any diameter that have suspicious imaging characteristics, limits unnecessary operations and costs.     

Apoptosis and delayed neuronal damage after carbon monoxide poisoning in the rat

Delayed neurological damage after CO hypoxia was studied in rats to determine whether programmed cell death (PCD), in addition to necrosis, is involved in neuronal death. In rats exposed to either air or CO (2500 ppm), microdialysis in brain cortex and hippocampus was performed to determine the extent of glutamate release and hydroxyl radical generation during the exposures. Groups of control and CO-exposed rats also were tested in a radial maze to assess the effects of the CO exposures on learning and memory. At 3, 7, and 21 days after CO exposure brains were perfusion-fixed and hematoxylin-eosin (H&E) was used to assess injury and to select regions for further examination. DNA fragmentation was sought by examining cryosections with the terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase-mediated dUTP-biotin nick-end labeling (TUNEL) reaction. We found significant increases in glutamate release and .OH generation during and immediately after CO hypoxia. CO-exposed rats showed learning and memory deficits after exposure associated with heterogeneous cell loss in cortex, globus pallidus, and cerebellum. The frontal cortex was affected most seriously; the damage was slight at Day 3, increased at Day 7, and persistent at Day 21 after CO exposure. TUNEL staining was positive at all three time points, and TUNEL-labeled cells were distributed similarly to eosinophilic cells. The number of cells stained by TUNEL was less than by H&E and amounted to 2 to 5% of all cell nuclei in regions of injury. Ultrastructural features of both neuronal necrosis and apoptosis also were observed readily by electron microscopy. These findings indicate that both necrosis and apoptosis (PCD) contribute to CO poisoning-induced brain cell death.     

A Metallographic Study of Abnormal Grain Growth During Aging of a β-Quenched Zr-1.14 Wt% Cr-0.08 Wt% Fe Alloy

Results are reported of a detailed optical and electron metallographic study of the effects of variations in quenching rate from the β-phase and aging temperature in the + ZrCr₂ phase region, on the recrystallization and grain growth characteristics of Zr-1.14 wt% Cr-0.08 wt% Fe alloy used for nuclear fuel sheathing. It is shown that certain quenching rates, which produce a mixed martensitic-Widmanstätten structure, should be avoided during the fabrication of fuel sheathing, since recrystallization and grain growth occurs at a much lower temperature than a material quenched at such a rate that the structure is wholly Widmanstätten or wholly martensitic. Preaging at 350 or 450°C prior to the high-temperature (700–750°C) aging reduces the incidence of recrystallization and grain growth.     

Artificial neural networks for coordination and control: The portability of experiential representations

It is time to locate connectionist representation theory in the new wave of robotics research. The utility of representations developed in artificial neural networks (ANNs) during learning has been demonstrated in cognitive science research since the 1980s. The research reported here puts learned representations to work in a decentered control task, the disembodied arm problem, in which a mobile robot operates an arm fixed to a table to pick up objects. There is no physical linkage between the arm and the robot and so the robot's point of view must be decentered. This is done by developing a modular Artificial Neural Net system in three stages: (i) a classifier net is trained with laser scan data to output transformationally invariant position classes; (ii) an arm net is trained for picking up objects; (iii) an inter net is trained to communicate and coordinate the sensing and acting. The completed system is shown to create new nonsymbolic transformationally invariant representations in order to perform the effective generalization of decentered viewpoints.     

Effect of hygiene measures, water sanitation and oral rehydration therapy on diarrhea in children less than five years old in the south of Ivory Coast

BACKGROUND: Gastric sucrose permeability is a noninvasive marker that reliably increases in association with gastrointestinal injury due to use of nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs. Despite the effect of Helicobacter pylori infection on the gastric mucosa, in a previous study we were unable to demonstrate that H. pylori infection was associated with abnormal gastric sucrose permeability. Our goal in this study was to explore further whether H. pylori infection changed gastric permeability; therefore, we evaluated the effect of treatment of H. pylori infection on gastric permeability to sucrose and the relation of sucrose permeability to density of polymorphonuclear leukocytes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Five hundred milliliters of a solution containing 100 gm of sucrose was ingested by the subject at bedtime. Overnight urine was collected and assayed for sucrose by high-performance liquid chromatography. Sucrose permeability was assessed both before and approximately 4 weeks after anti-H. pylori therapy. RESULTS: Seventeen asymptomatic H. pylori-infected volunteers participated; 8 were cured. Sucrose permeability was in the range commonly found in normal controls both before and after anti-H. pylori therapy (mean excretion, 76.3 mg; range, 13-171 mg). Gastric sucrose permeability correlated with the density of polymorphonulcear cell infiltration of the mucosa. Cure of the H. pylori infection was associated with a small but significant decrease in sucrose permeability (98.8 +/- 18 mg to 51.7 +/- 9.8 mg (p = .01). Sucrose permeability was greater in those with a high density of mucosal polymorphonuclear cells compared to those with lower scores (119.5 +/- 4 vs 71.4 +/- 13 for those with scores > or = 5 compared to scores < or = 4; p = .023). Failed therapy resulted in an increase in the mucosal density of polymorphonuclear infiltration and sucrose permeability (56.4 +/- 13 mg-99.7 +/- 19 mg pretreatment vs posttreatment, respectively; p = .031). CONCLUSION: H. pylori gastritis causes a small but measurable increase in gastric permeability to sucrose that may reflect epithelial transmigration of neutrophils.     

Low birth weight as an additional indication for chromosomal analysis

INTRODUCTION: Even though there are few epidemiological studies evaluating the birth weights of different groups of malformed babies with chromosomal abnormalities, it is widely known that infants with trisomy 18, and to a lesser degree those with trisomy 13 and other chromosomal alterations, have low birth weights. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In this study we present the analysis of the birth weights and gestational ages of a large sample of babies (23,155 malformed and a similar number of nonmalformed babies), separating the different groups of chromosomal anomalies and comparing the weight in the clinical groups of malformed infants. RESULTS: Most of the groups with chromosomal abnormalities present lower birth weights in comparison to the other groups. CONCLUSIONS: The results of our study support the conclusion that the relationship between chromosomal alterations and low birth weight is sufficiently important that such a low birth weight in children with minor or major anomalies should be considered as one more indication to perform chromosomal analysis.