Gaming Prediction Markets: Equilibrium Strategies with a Market Maker

We study the equilibrium behavior of informed traders interacting with market scoring rule (MSR) market makers. One attractive feature of MSR is that it is myopically incentive compatible: it is optimal for traders to report their true beliefs about the likelihood of an event outcome provided that they ignore the impact of their reports on the profit they might garner from future trades. In this paper, we analyze non-myopic strategies and examine what information structures lead to truthful betting by traders. Specifically, we analyze the behavior of risk-neutral traders with incomplete information playing in a dynamic game. We consider finite-stage and infinite-stage game models. For each model, we study the logarithmic market scoring rule (LMSR) with two different information structures: conditionally independent signals and (unconditionally) independent signals. In the finite-stage model, when signals of traders are independent conditional on the state of the world, truthful betting is a Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium (PBE). Moreover, it is the unique Weak Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium (WPBE) of the game. In contrast, when signals of traders are unconditionally independent, truthful betting is not a WPBE. In the infinite-stage model with unconditionally independent signals, there does not exist an equilibrium in which all information is revealed in a finite amount of time. We propose a simple discounted market scoring rule that reduces the opportunity for bluffing strategies. We show that in any WPBE for the infinite-stage market with discounting, the market price converges to the fully-revealing price, and the rate of convergence can be bounded in terms of the discounting parameter. When signals are conditionally independent, truthful betting is the unique WPBE for the infinite-stage market with and without discounting.     

Extracting Kolmogorov complexity with applications to dimension zero-one laws

We apply results on extracting randomness from independent sources to “extract” Kolmogorov complexity. For any α,?>0, given a string x with K(x)>α|x|, we show how to use a constant number of advice bits to efficiently compute another string y, |y|=Ω(|x|), with K(y)>(1-?)|y|. This result holds for both unbounded and space-bounded Kolmogorov complexity.We use the extraction procedure for space-bounded complexity to establish zero-one laws for the strong dimensions of complexity classes within ESPACE. The unbounded extraction procedure yields a zero-one law for the constructive strong dimensions of Turing degrees.     

Antibody coated red cells with and without hemolysis in chronic ulcerative colitis

A young female with ulcerative colitis associated with positive direct and indirect Coombs reaction and severe autoimmune hemolytic anemia is reported. Cortisone was beneficial and total colectomy was promptly followed by subsidence of the hematologic defects. Review of the literature suggests that this complication of ulcerative colitis is uncommon. It basis is unclear. It seems to be expressed through the presence of a "warm" auto-antibody. Colectomy should be strongly considered when severe hemolysis is present but not when the Coombs test is positive alone without significant hemolysis.     

Micro-engineered first wall tungsten armor for high average power laser fusion energy systems

The high average power laser program is developing an inertial fusion energy demonstration power reactor with a solid first wall chamber. The first wall (FW) will be subject to high energy density radiation and high doses of high energy helium implantation. Tungsten has been identified as the candidate material for a FW armor. The fundamental concern is long term thermo-mechanical survivability of the armor against the effects of high temperature pulsed operation and exfoliation due to the retention of implanted helium. Even if a solid tungsten armor coating would survive the high temperature cyclic operation with minimal failure, the high helium implantation and retention would result in unacceptable material loss rates. Micro-engineered materials, such as castellated structures, plasma sprayed nano-porous coatings and refractory foams are suggested as a first wall armor material to address these fundamental concerns. A micro-engineered FW armor would have to be designed with specific geometric features that tolerate high cyclic heating loads and recycle most of the implanted helium without any significant failure. Micro-engineered materials are briefly reviewed. In particular, plasma-sprayed nano-porous tungsten and tungsten foams are assessed for their potential to accommodate inertial fusion specific loads. Tests show that nano-porous plasma spray coatings can be manufactured with high permeability to helium gas, while retaining relatively high thermal conductivities. Tungsten foams where shown to be able to overcome thermo-mechanical loads by cell rotation and deformation. Helium implantation tests have shown, that pulsed implantation and heating releases significant levels of implanted helium. Helium implantation and release from tungsten was modeled using an expanded kinetic rate theory, to include the effects of pulsed implantations and thermal cycles. Although, significant challenges remain micro-engineered materials are shown to constitute potential candidate FW armor materials.     

Dynamic multi-commodity capacitated facility location: a mathematical modeling framework for strategic supply chain planning

In this paper, we focus on the strategic design of supply chain networks. We propose a mathematical modeling framework that captures many practical aspects of network design problems simultaneously but which have not received adequate attention in the literature. The aspects considered include: dynamic planning horizon, generic supply chain network structure, external supply of materials, inventory opportunities for goods, distribution of commodities, facility configuration, availability of capital for investments, and storage limitations. Moreover, network configuration decisions concerning the gradual relocation of facilities over the planning horizon are considered. To cope with fluctuating demands, capacity expansion and reduction scenarios are also analyzed as well as modular capacity shifts. The relation of the proposed modeling framework with existing models is discussed. For problems of reasonable size, we report on our computational experience with standard mathematical programming software. In particular, useful insights on the impact of various factors on network design decisions are provided.     

HIV-AIDS Patients' Evaluation of Health Information on the Internet: The Digital Divide and Vulnerability to Fraudulent Claims.

Access to health information on the Internet has revolutionized how medical patients learn about their illnesses. Valuable information can be found online; however, many health Web sites contain inaccurate or misleading information. The authors surveyed 324 adults with HIV concerning their Internet use for obtaining health information. Health information found online was then rated for quality by participants and by medical professionals. Participants were less critical of health information found online than medical professionals and made smaller distinctions between high-quality and low-quality information. Assigning credibility to low-quality information was predicted by lower incomes and educational attainment, poorer reading comprehension, lower literacy levels, and irrational health beliefs. Results suggest that patients do not always evaluate online information critically and may be vulnerable to misinformation. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Overt and Relational Aggression and Perceived Popularity: Developmental Differences in Concurrent and Prospective Relations.

Relations of overt and relational aggression with perceived popularity among children and early adolescents were examined in 2 studies (Ns = 607 and 1,049). Among older youths, positive concurrent relations found between overt aggression and perceived popularity became nonsignificant when relational aggression was controlled, whereas positive associations found between relational aggression and perceived popularity held when overt aggression was controlled. Aggression and perceived popularity were not positively related for the younger participants. The 2nd study also examined the temporal ordering of these relations over 6 months. For older girls, positive relations between relational aggression and perceived popularity were bidirectional. For older boys, relational aggression did not predict increased perceived popularity, but perceived popularity predicted increased relational aggression. Implications for intervention are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Do Source of Income Anti-discrimination Laws Facilitate Access to Less Disadvantaged Neighborhoods?

Vouchers have come to be seen as a tool for promoting economic and racial/ethnic integration. Discrimination based on Source of Income (SOI), however, could hinder the use of vouchers to move to more desirable neighborhoods. State and local SOI anti-discrimination laws (SOI laws) are one policy response to address this issue. SOI laws make it illegal for landlords to discriminate against voucher recipients solely on the basis of their having a voucher. The research presented here tested whether SOI laws in the USA improve locational outcomes for voucher recipients. This research found that the impacts of SOI laws on locational outcomes are mixed. We found substantively important reductions in neighborhood poverty rates associated with the implementation of SOI laws and small but statistically significant reductions in minority concentration as well. The concentration of voucher recipients in a neighborhood, however, does not appear to be related to SOI law implementation.