基于蒙特卡罗模拟的项目费用风险分析方法——项目风险分析系列论文（一）

随着招投标项目竞争的日益剧烈,对于项目费用估算的准确性,以及费用不确定性风险分析的要求越来越高,采用概率费用分析的估算方法代替确定性费用估算的需求日益迫切。文章结合国外相关文献的成果,对采用蒙特卡罗模拟的费用风险分析方法、应具备的条件、需要注意的问题以及优势进行了探讨。     

Gradient Boundary Detection for Time Series Snapshot Construction in Sensor Networks

In many applications of sensor networks, the sink needs to keep track of the history of sensed data of a monitored region for scientific analysis or supporting historical queries. We call these historical data a time series of value distributions or snapshots. Obviously, to build the time series snapshots by requiring all of the sensors to transmit their data to the sink periodically is not energy efficient. In this paper, we introduce the idea of gradient boundary and propose the gradient boundary detection (GBD) algorithm to construct these time series snapshots of a monitored region. In GBD, a monitored region is partitioned into a set of subregions and all sensed data in one subregion are within a predefined value range, namely, the gradient interval. Sensors located on the boundaries of the subregions are required to transmit the data to the sink and, then, the sink recovers all subregions to construct snapshots of the monitored area. In this process, only the boundary sensors transmit their data and, therefore, energy consumption is greatly reduced. The simulation results show that GBD is able to build snapshots with a comparable accuracy and has up to 40 percent energy savings compared with the existing approaches for large gradient intervals.     

The effects of context on the correspondence between observational ratings and questionnaire reports of hostile behavior: A multitrait, multimethod approach.

Scholars who study close relationships often measure the same concept with both observational ratings and questionnaire items. In studies where this has been done, the correlations between the two measures have often been low, and one reason may be a "context by measurement" confound. Observational ratings are usually based on behaviors during a specific task, whereas most questionnaire responses are based on a broader context such as "during the past month." In 2001, a total of 292 young couples were videotaped during a discussion task and asked to report on their own behavior and that of their partner during the discussion task and during the past month. The data were configured as a multitrait, multimethod matrix, and the magnitudes of the correlations were estimated with confirmatory factor analysis. The resulting correlations between observer ratings and questionnaire reports of hostile behavior during the videotaped discussion were roughly twice the magnitude of the correlations between observer rating and questionnaire reports during the past month. This suggests that the correspondence between behavioral categories and the content of questionnaire items is greater than previous studies have indicated. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

基于Modbus协议的外输计量监控系统的设计与实现

原油的外输计量系统没有配套的上位机系统,其操作存在一定的缺陷。针对这种情况,在详细介绍了Modbus协议和CRC校验的基础上,提出了基于Visual Basic环境下与流量计算机通信的系统设计方案,在该设计中实现了基于Modbus协议的串口通信以及CRC校验。实际验证,该系统能够有效地解决原有问题。     

具有厚大断面的大型球墨铸铁铸件的生产

首先通过电炉—LF精炼炉—VD精炼炉—包内球化的工艺路线获得了足够的优质铁液,然后通过选取合适的分型面、设置合理的浇注系统、设计专用的冷铁、安放足够大的保温冒口和上表面加大加工余量来去除夹渣等措施,成功生产了具有厚大断面的大型球墨铸铁铸件。     

A Generic Pigment Model for Digital Painting

We propose a generic pigment model suitable for digital painting in a wide range of genres including traditional Chinese painting and water-based painting. The model embodies a simulation of the pigment-water solution and its interaction with the brush and the paper at the level of pigment particles; such a level of detail is needed for achieving highly intricate effects by the artist. The simulation covers pigment diffusion and sorption processes at the paper surface, and aspects of pigment particle deposition on the paper. We follow rules and formulations from quantitative studies of adsorption and diffusion processes in surface chemistry and the textile industry. The result is a pigment model that spans a continuum from the very wet to the very dry brush stroke effects. We also propose a new pigment mixing method based on machine learning techniques to emulate pigment mixing in real life as well as to support the creation of new artificial pigments. To experiment with the proposed model, we embedded the model in a sophisticated digital brush system. The combined system exhibits interactive speed on a modest PC platform. http://www.cs.hku.hk/~songhua/pigment provides supplementary materials for this paper.     

Real-time homogenous translucent material editing

This paper presents a novel method for real-time homogenous translucent material editing under fixed illumination. We consider the complete analytic BSSRDF model proposed by Jensen et al. [ [JMLH01] ], including both multiple scattering and single scattering. Our method allows the user to adjust the analytic parameters of BSSRDF and provides high-quality, real-time rendering feedback. Inspired by recently developed Precomputed Radiance Transfer (PRT) techniques, we approximate both the multiple scattering diffuse reflectance function and the single scattering exponential attenuation function in the analytic model using basis functions, so that re-computing the outgoing radiance at each vertex as parameters change reduces to simple dot products. In addition, using a non-uniform piecewise polynomial basis, we are able to achieve smaller approximation error than using bases adopted in previous PRT-based works, such as spherical harmonics and wavelets. Using hardware acceleration, we demonstrate that our system generates images comparable to [ [JMLH01] ]at real-time frame-rates.     

聚醚多元醇钻井液研制及应用

以新研制的多功能聚醚多元醇SYP-1为主剂,对聚合物包被剂、防塌剂和降滤失剂进行了优选实验.在此基础上,研制了一种新型的聚醚多元醇钻井液.对聚醚多元醇钻井液的抑制性、流变性、滤失造壁性、润滑性以及对油气层的保护性能进行了室内评价实验,并分析了该钻井液的作用机理.在LN3-6H井和HD4-23H井进行的聚醚多元醇钻井液现场试验表明,在钻进过程中井壁稳定,井径规则,起、下钻畅通,井下安全,测井、下套管及固井作业顺利.室内实验和现场应用表明,聚醚多元醇钻井液具有优良的防塌性和润滑性,能有效地抑制岩屑分散,起到稳定井壁和保护油气层的作用,满足复杂地质条件下钻井的需要.     

变频调速节能改造方案的经济性评价和比较

本文详细介绍了变频调速节能改造方案的经济性评价方法。静态分析法包括投资回收期法、抵偿年限法和年计算费用法；动态分析法则包括净现值法、内部回收率法、总费用现值法和最小年费用法。