Long range peak demand forecasting under conditions of high growth

An extended logistic model with a varying asymptotic upper bound for long-range peak demand forecasting is described. The model has been applied to a typical fast growing system, the Saudi Consolidated Electric Company. The forecasts are compared with actual demands and with those obtained from classical forecasting methods. The model gave relatively accurate peak demand forecasts compared with other classical methods. The model with a single load observation is capable of producing several peak demand forecasts corresponding to different levels of maximum temperature and various levels of social activity. The forecasts produced by the model were also stable irrespective of the length of the ex-post simulation period     

Deformation and fracture of glass bead/ CTBN-rubber/epoxy composites

Carboxyl-terminated butadiene-acrylonitrile-rubber decreases modulus and yield stress of the studied epoxy but increases fracture toughness. The addition of glass bead compensates for the loss in modulus but has little effect on yield stress. However, it significantly contributes to the fracture toughness by providing additional mechanisms for toughening of both the unmodified and rubber-modified epoxy. For the toughened epoxies studied, fracture surfaces gave only limited information on fracture mechanisms since significant energy absorption also occurs in the material below the fracture surface. Suggestions for suitable material compositions for fiber composite matrices are given.     

Modeling of Diffusion in Capillary Porous Materials During the Drying Process

This paper presents a model of heterogenous diffusion in capillary porous materials during the process of drying. The governing heat and mass transfer equations have been established using the liquid as well as vapor flow. Two models have been presented. Model 1 does not consider the heat conduction while the model 2 has been established by considering the conduction. The developed models and the numerical solutions of the resulting differential equations can take into account the moisture and temperature dependent thermophysical properties of the product. All equations have been established in spherical coordinates but the programme written for the purpose of calculations can be used for other geometries also. Numerical calculations have been performed for gas concrete and tiles using model 1, while model 2 has been used for gas concrete only because of the lack of data for thermophysical properties of the tile. For gas concrete it was seen that conduction has only marginal effect on the drying process and the numerical predictions of the drying process were reasonably accurate.     

Polymer networks based on α,ω-methacrylate-terminated poly(1,3-dioxolane)

α,ω-Methacrylate-terminated poly(1,3-dioxolane)s (polyDXL) were synthesized by cationic ring-opening polymerization of DXL in the presence of methylene-bis(oxyethylmethacrylate) as transfer agent. If the initiator concentration is small compared with the transfer agent concentration, the molecular weights of the polymers are governed by the ratio of the reacted monomer to the reacted transfer agent. The α,ω-methacrylate-terminated polyDXLs obtained undergo free radical polymerization with formation of polyacetal networks. The properties of the networks as function of the molecular weight of the corresponding prepolymers are reported.     

Tunable wavelength filters based on nonlinear optical interactionsin semiconductor amplifiers

A novel class of narrow-band tunable wavelength filters is proposed and evaluated. Wavelength selectivity of the proposed filters Is derived from the finite time response of an optical nonlinearity. The nonlinearity is gain saturation in semiconductor optical amplifier structures. The filters are shown to have very narrow passbands tunable over the entire semiconductor gain bandwidth. The key to filter implementation is a device configuration in which the wave-mixing products can be isolated from the amplified inputs. Three integrated optics compatible configurations are considered and shown to have high filter throughputs 34 to 180% and subangstrom bandwidths     

A new monitoring system for piping systems in fossil fired power plants

A CEC-funded project has been performed to tackle the problem of producing an advanced Life Monitoring System (LMS) which would calculate the creep and fatigue damage experienced by high temperature pipework components. Four areas were identified where existing Life Monitoring System technology could be improved:

1. 1. the inclusion of creep relaxation

2. 2. the inclusion of external loads on components

3. 3. a more accurate method of calculating thermal stresses due to temperature transients

4. 4. the inclusion of high cycle fatigue terms.

The creep relaxation problem was solved using stress reduction factors in an analytical in-elastic stress calculation. The stress reduction factors were produced for a number of common geometries and materials by means of non-linear finite element analysis. External loads were catered for by producing influence coefficients from in-elastic analysis of the particular piping system and using them to calculate bending moments at critical positions on the pipework from load and displacement measurements made at the convenient points at the pipework. The thermal stress problem was solved by producing a completely new solution based on Green's Function and Fast Fourier transforms. This allowed the thermal stress in a complex component to be calculated from simple non-intrusive thermocouple measurements made on the outside of the component. The high-cycle fatigue problem was dealt with precalculating the fatigue damage associated with standard transients and adding this damage to cumulative total when a transient occurred.

The site testing provided good practical experience and showed up problems which would not otherwise have been detected.     

Trends in low-cost, high-performance substrate technology

The trends in high density interconnection (HDI) multichip module (MCM) techniques that have the potential to reduce interconnection cost and production time are described. The implementation in laminated dielectric (MCM-L) technology of a workstation processor core illustrates current substrate technology capabilities. The design, routing, layout and thermal management of the processor core are described. Thin-film deposited dielectric (MCM-D) technology is discussed as a cost-effective method for future interconnection applications     

Radon as a risk factor for extra-pulmonary tumours

Most divers and diving medicine specialists know that application of normobaric oxygen as first aid after a bubble disease incident is highly effective. However, as yet technical difficulties acted as a deterrent to using normobaric oxygen at the diving site. This can now be overcome by a newer technique. To be efficient, any therapy of bubble disease should follow three main principles: maximal partial pressure of inhaled oxygen (i.e. 100 kpa in normobaric, and 280 kpa in hyperbaric conditions); minimal partial pressure of inhaled nitrogen, which should ideally be near zero; immediate start of therapy, if possible at the diving site, but not later than 2 hours after the onset of the first symptoms. However, it has to be borne in mind that for an efficient normobaric oxygenation (100%), the standard apparatus design without oxygen reservoir is obsolete, for it offers at most 40% oxygen to the lungs. Currently the following technical approaches for an efficient normobaric oxygenation are available: open one-way systems with tightly fitting mask and oxygen reservoir bag (type Ambu or Leardal, etc.); open systems with on-demand regulation and tightly fitting mouth piece (type SCUBA, or Bird-respirator); closed systems with CO2 absorber (type oxygen rebreathing diving gear). The closed system is a genuine technical advance, because it needs 15 times less oxygen than open systems (about 90 liters oxygen for a 3-hours oxygenation run). Such an apparatus is thus of light weight, far less cumbersome, and nevertheless highly efficient. The therapy should start immediately at the site of the mishap and be maintained during the transport to the next HBO-unit (usually 3 to 6 hours).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)     

The evolution of custom microarray manufacture

Given the enormous size of the genome and that there are potentially many other types of measurements we need to do to understand it, it has become necessary to pick and choose one's targets to measure because it is still impossible to evaluate the entire genome all at once. What has emerged is a need to have rapidly customizable microarrays. There are two dominant methods to accomplish custom microarray synthesis, Affymetrix-like microarrays manufactured using light projection rather than semiconductor-like masks used by Affymetrix to mass manufacture their GeneChip/sup TM/ arrays now, or the ink-jet printing method employed by Agilent. The manufacture of these custom Affymetrix-like microarrays can now be done on a digital optical chemistry (DOC) machine developed at the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, and this method offers much higher feature numbers and feature density than is possible with ink-jet printed arrays. On a microarray, each feature contains a single genetic measurement. The initial DOC prototype has been described in several publications, but that has now led to a second-generation machine. This machine reliably produces a number of arrays daily, has been deployed against a number of biomedical questions, is being used in new ways and has also led to a number of spin-off technologies.