Long range peak demand forecasting under conditions of high growth

An extended logistic model with a varying asymptotic upper bound for long-range peak demand forecasting is described. The model has been applied to a typical fast growing system, the Saudi Consolidated Electric Company. The forecasts are compared with actual demands and with those obtained from classical forecasting methods. The model gave relatively accurate peak demand forecasts compared with other classical methods. The model with a single load observation is capable of producing several peak demand forecasts corresponding to different levels of maximum temperature and various levels of social activity. The forecasts produced by the model were also stable irrespective of the length of the ex-post simulation period     

Mechanism for self-synchronization of femtosecond pulses in atwo-color Ti:sapphire laser

An experimental and theoretical analysis of the nonlinear coupling mechanism between the two solitary pulses circulating in a two-color femtosecond laser is presented. Two operation regimes; synchronized; and nonsynchronized; and a hysteresis of the transition between the two regimes are clearly observed; while independent modelocking and tunability of the output pulse trains is found in both regimes. Pulses in the range from 15 to 100 fs are synchronized with a timing jitter below 2 fs. The combined effects of cross-phase modulation and negative group velocity dispersion are shown to be responsible for the strong pulse correlation in the synchronized regime. Our experimental observations are in agreement with numerical simulations, thus confirming the theoretical model     

Modeling of Diffusion in Capillary Porous Materials During the Drying Process

This paper presents a model of heterogenous diffusion in capillary porous materials during the process of drying. The governing heat and mass transfer equations have been established using the liquid as well as vapor flow. Two models have been presented. Model 1 does not consider the heat conduction while the model 2 has been established by considering the conduction. The developed models and the numerical solutions of the resulting differential equations can take into account the moisture and temperature dependent thermophysical properties of the product. All equations have been established in spherical coordinates but the programme written for the purpose of calculations can be used for other geometries also. Numerical calculations have been performed for gas concrete and tiles using model 1, while model 2 has been used for gas concrete only because of the lack of data for thermophysical properties of the tile. For gas concrete it was seen that conduction has only marginal effect on the drying process and the numerical predictions of the drying process were reasonably accurate.     

Tunable wavelength filters based on nonlinear optical interactionsin semiconductor amplifiers

A novel class of narrow-band tunable wavelength filters is proposed and evaluated. Wavelength selectivity of the proposed filters Is derived from the finite time response of an optical nonlinearity. The nonlinearity is gain saturation in semiconductor optical amplifier structures. The filters are shown to have very narrow passbands tunable over the entire semiconductor gain bandwidth. The key to filter implementation is a device configuration in which the wave-mixing products can be isolated from the amplified inputs. Three integrated optics compatible configurations are considered and shown to have high filter throughputs 34 to 180% and subangstrom bandwidths     

Cold forging and chemical heat treatment of the casing of the internal joint for VAZ cars

The technological process of cold forging applied for the first time in the production of the casing of the internal joint with races is described. The process operations of cold forging and the annealing and carburizing regimes for this part me described.     

Low-temperature phase transformation in Li-10 at. % Mg

It is not known whether impaired hematopoiesis noted during human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection results from infection of stem/progenitor cells or of cells of the bone marrow microenvironment. Normal adherent primary stromal layers were exposed to HIV to determine which of this mixture of endothelial cells, fibroblasts, and macrophages are susceptible to the virus. Viral p24 in supernatants was noted with monocytotropic HIV-1Ada, HIV-1Ba-L, and HIV-1JR-FL but not with lymphotropic HIV-1LAI nor HIV-1MN strain, and only stromal macrophages expressed the viral antigens. Coculture of the layers with PHA-activated normal lymphocytes failed to rescue lymphotropic virus. No p24 was produced when macrophage-depleted stromal cells were exposed to either HIV-1Ba-L or HIV-1LAI; proviral DNA was then amplified by PCR in cells exposed to either virus, though coculture with lymphocytes rescued only HIV-1Ba-L. Altogether, these data indicate that macrophages are the major targets of HIV in cultured stromal layers. As virus replication in macrophages did not affect the profile of major cytokines involved in regulating hematopoiesis, HIV infection could alter hematopoiesis by other as yet unspecified mechanisms.     

Optimized partitioning of a wavelength distributed data interfacering network

A fiber optic ring network, such as fiber distributed data interface (FDDI), can be operated over multiple wavelengths on its existing fiber plant consisting of point-to-point fiber links. Using wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) technology, FDDI nodes can be partitioned to operate over multiple subnetworks, with each subnetwork operating independently on a different wavelength, and inter-subnetwork traffic forwarding performed by a bridge. For this multiwavelength version of FDDI, which we refer to as wavelength distributed data interface (WDDI), we examine the necessary upgrades to the architecture of a FDDI node, including its possibility to serve as a bridge. The main motivation behind this study is that, as network traffic scales beyond (the single-wavelength) FDDI's information-carrying capacity, its multiwavelength version, WDDI, can gracefully accommodate such traffic growth. A number of design choices exist in constructing a good WDDI network. Specifically, we investigate algorithms using which, based on prevailing traffic conditions, partitioning of nodes into subnetworks can be performed in an optimized fashion. Our algorithms partition the nodes into subrings, such that the total traffic flow in the network and/or the network-wide average packet delay is minimized     

Afterburner [network-independent card for protocols]

Many current implementations of protocols such as the Transmission Control Protocol/Internet Protocol (TCP/IP) are inefficient because data are often accessed more frequently than necessary. Three techniques that reduce the need for memory bandwidth are proposed. The techniques are copy-on-write, page remapping, and single-copy. Afterburner, a network-independent card that provides the services that are necessary for a single-copy protocol stack, is described. The card has 1 MByte of local buffers and provides a simple interface to a variety of network link adapters, including HIPPI and asynchronous transfer mode (ATM). Afterburner can support transfers to and from the link adapter card at rates up to 1 Gbit/s. An implementation of TCP/IP that uses the features provided by Afterburner to reduce the movement of data to a single copy is discussed. Measurements of the end-to-end performance of Afterburner and the single-copy implementation of TCP/IP are presented     

An improved Gaussian approximation for probability of bit-erroranalysis of asynchronous bandlimited DS-CDMA systems with BPSK spreading

This paper analyzes probability of bit-error (P_e) performance of asynchronous bandlimited direct-sequence code-division multiple-access systems with binary phase-shift keying spreading. The two present methods of P_e analysis under bandwidth-efficient pulse shaping: the often-cited standard Gaussian approximation and the characteristic function (CF) method suffer from either a low accuracy in regions of low P_e (< 10^-3) or a prohibitively large computational complexity. The paper presents an alternate method of P_e analysis with moderate computational complexity and high accuracy based on a key observation. A sequence of chip decision statistics (whose sum yields a bit statistic) forms a stationary, m-dependent sequence when conditioned on the chip delay and phase offset of each interfering signal. This observation permits the generalization of the improved Gaussian approximation previously derived for the rectangular pulse and the derivation of a numerically efficient approximation based on the CF method. Numerical examples of systems using the square-root raised-cosine and IS-95 pulses illustrate THE P _e performance, user capacity and the accuracy of the proposed method