基于粒子群优化和支持向量机的花粉浓度预测模型

为了提高花粉浓度预报的准确率，解决现有花粉浓度预报准确率不高的问题，提出了一种基于粒子群优化（PSO）算法和支持向量机（SVM）的花粉浓度预报模型。首先，综合考虑气温、气温日较差、相对湿度、降水量、风力、日照时数等多种气象要素，选择与花粉浓度相关性较强的气象要素构成特征向量；其次，利用特征向量与花粉浓度数据建立SVM预测模型，并使用PSO算法找出最优参数；然后利用最优参数优化花粉浓度预测模型；最后，使用优化后的模型对花粉未来24 h浓度进行预测，并与未优化的SVM、多元线性回归法（MLR）、反向神经网络（BPNN）作对比。此外使用优化后的模型对某市南郊观象台和密云两个站点进行逐日花粉浓度预测。实验结果表明，相比其他预报方法，所提方法能有效提高花粉浓度未来24 h预测精度，并具有较高的泛化能力。     

某矿快速掘进最优炮孔间距的选择

山西某矿5308底抽巷在掘进过程中速度慢、效率低，直接影响工作面的瓦斯抽采，为了改善上述情形，对炮孔间距进行研究。通过使用ANSYS软件对不同炮孔间距下快速掘进效果的模拟分析，并经现场验证，得出了适应该矿的最佳炮孔间距。结果表明：炮孔间距为500 mm时，爆破产生裂隙发育范围和岩石损伤区域都最大，快速掘进的效果最好。     

灰库设计的细节探讨

根据以往的工程设计经验,从实用的角度出发,针对灰库设计中在工艺布置、设备选型及楼面标高的确定、设备及仪表检修等需要考虑的几个细节问题上,进行了总结整理以共同探讨。     

Preparation and Properties of a New Mediumdensity and High-strength Ceramic Proppant

Based on the needs of the market,a new 52 MPa medium-density and high-strength ceramic proppant was prepared by adopting third grade bauxite and clay as raw materials and using the solid phase sintering method,and the effect of the firing temperature on the microstructure,phase composition and mechanical properties of the ceramic proppant was studied. The broken resistance mechanism of this ceramic proppant was also discussed. The results show that the main phases of the prepared ceramic proppant are mullite and corundum; the broken rates are 3. 92% and 7. 21% under 52 MPa and69 MPa,respectively.     

Hazelett生产线熔炼工艺探讨

探讨了采用Hazelett生产线,从原料到合格铝液各道工序的操作要求;特别是采用电解铝液,对每道工序操作时间和铝液质量控制提出严格要求。通过实际生产,对现有熔炼炉配置、设备台数、精炼设备配置作了详细阐述,对每道工序要达到的铝液净化参数提出严格要求,经过6次净化提纯,基本满足Hazelett铸机要求,并对熔炼设备配置的不足提出合理化建议。     

Development of mobile miniature natural gas liquefiers

With increasing consumption of natural gas (NG), small NG reservoirs, such as coalbed methane and oil field associated gas, have recently drawn significant attention. Owing to their special characteristics (e.g., scattered distribution and small output), small-scale NG liquefiers are highly required. Similarly, the mixed refrigerant cycle (MRC) is suitable for small-scale liquefaction systems due to its moderate complexity and power consumption. In consideration of the above, this paper reviews the development of mobile miniature NG liquefiers in Technical Institute of Physics and Chemistry (TIPC), China. To effectively liquefy the scattered NG and overcome the drawbacks of existing technologies, three main improvements, i.e., low-pressure MRC process driven by oil-lubricated screw compressor, compact cold box with the new designed heat exchangers, and standardized equipment manufacturing and integrated process technology have been made. The development pattern of “rapid cluster application and flexible liquefaction center” has been eventually proposed. The small-scale NG liquefier developed by TIPC has reached a minimum liquefaction power consumption of about 0.35 kW·h/Nm³. It is suitable to exploit small remote gas reserves which can also be used in boil-off gas reliquefaction and distributed peak-shaving of pipe networks.     

空气预热器实时监控系统堵塞可视化性能研究

针对电站锅炉回转式空气预热器运行时上下表面不可见的问题，本文提出了一种视频监控与故障分析系统，可直接监测转子表面情况。该系统通过视频监控获取图像，结合改进的Retinex算法对其进行处理，实现了以下2个功能:1）能分析积灰程度以判断转子堵塞 情况；2）与温度场融合实时显示转子表面热点分布以预防二次燃烧。该系统已应用于某600 MW机组，实现了在热态环境下对空气预热器转子积灰程度、热点分布、堵塞程度的估算与可视化，大大提高了空气预热器运行的可靠性。     

火电机组负荷分配中多源不确定性因素影响分析

不确定性因素存在于火电机组负荷分配中，影响机组负荷分配、节能环保目标。本文综合考虑负荷预测不确定性、机组煤耗率不确定性与其CO2排放系数不确定性，分别构建火电机组一次能源消耗成本与CO2排放量最小目标下的火电机组负荷优化分配模型；以此为基础，引入析因分析方差分解方法，量化多源不确定性因素单独与交互作用下对节能、环保目标的影响程度。结果表明:负荷预测不确定性对火电机组节能、环保目标影响最为显著，相对影响程度分别为51.13%、62.70%；机组煤耗特性及其CO2排放系数影响次之，相对影响程度分别为47.58%、34.95%。此研究结果对不确定性条件下电力系统负荷分配具有借鉴价值。