Multiple Random Forests Modelling for Urban Water Consumption Forecasting

The precise forecasting of water consumption is the basis in water resources planning and management. However, predicting water consumption fluctuations is complicated, given their non-stationary and non-linear characteristics. In this paper, a multiple random forests model, integrated wavelet transform and random forests regression (W-RFR), is proposed for the prediction of daily urban water consumption in southwest of China. Raw time series were first decomposed into low- and high-frequency parts with discrete wavelet transformation (DWT). The random forests regression (RFR) method was then used for prediction using each subseries. In the process, the input and output constructions of the RFR model were proposed for each subseries on the basis of the delay times and the embedding dimension of the attractor reconstruction computed by the C-C method, respectively. The forecasting values of each subseries were summarized as the final results. Four performance criteria, i.e., correlation coefficient (R), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) and threshold static (TS), were used to evaluate the forecasting capacity of the W-RFR. The results indicated that the W-RFR can capture the basic dynamics of the daily urban water consumption. The forecasted performance of the proposed approach was also compared with those of models, i.e., the RFR and forward feed neural network (FFNN) models. The results indicated that among the models, the precision of the predictions of the proposed model was greater, which is attributed to good feature extractions from the multi-scale perspective and favorable feature learning performance using the decision trees.     

Comprehensive Benefit Evaluation System for Low-Impact Development of Urban Stormwater Management Measures

In recent years, plenty of simulation research about the low impact development(LID) control effect has emerged, but studies on scheme comparison and evaluation are lacking. In this study, a comprehensive benefit evaluation system for LID, including environmental, economic, and social benefits, was established on the basis of Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) and urban storm water model. Above all, benefit identification, quantitative evaluation and scheme comparison of single LID measures were obtained according to site investigation, simulated calculation and theoretical analysis. Whereafter, LID combination plans were designed based on single LID measures with high comprehensive benefit values, and their comprehensive benefits were evaluated to obtain the optimal plan. Then, based on well-founded system combined with Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), the design and optimization of LID were conducted, with a case in Xi’an, China. It turned out that the preferential order of the LID single measures according to the comprehensive benefit was: bio-retention > rain barrels > low-elevation greenbelt > green roofs > permeable pavement. Five LID combination plans were designed based on bio-retention, rain barrels, low-elevation greenbelt, and green roofs. Evaluation results showed that plan I (bio-retention and green roofs) was the optimal LID combination plan.     

Performance Assessment of a Coupled Particle Swarm Optimization and Network Flow Programming Model for Optimum Water Allocation

Water resources allocation problems are mainly categorized in two classes of simulation and optimization. In most cases, optimization problems due to the number of variables, constraints and nonlinear feasible search space are known as a challenging subject in the literature. In this research, by coupling particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm and a network flow programming (NFP) based river basin simulation model, a PSO-NFP hybrid structure is constructed for optimum water allocation planning. In the PSO-NFP model, the NFP core roles as the fast inner simulation engine for finding optimum values for a large number of water discharges in the network links (rivers and canals) and nodes (reservoirs and demands) while the heuristic PSO algorithm forms the outer optimization cover to search for the optimum values of reservoirs capacities and their storage priorities. In order to assess the performance of the PSO-NFP model, three hypothetical test problems are defined, and their equivalent nonlinear mathematical programs are developed in LINGO and the results are compared. Finally, the PSO-NFP model is applied in solving a real river basin water allocation problem. Results indicate that the applied method of coupling PSO and NFP has an efficient ability for handling river basin-scale water resources optimization problems.     

Flood Forecasting and Decision Making in the new Millennium. Where are We?

This paper reviews the development of real time flood forecasting systems from the early 1970 approaches to the recent probabilistic ones. A preliminary discussion on the motivations for developing real time flood forecasting systems is introduced to explain their evolution in the last four to five decades. It will be shown how recent probabilistic flood forecasts are more robust and effective than the traditional deterministic ones. In particular, when combined with Bayesian decision approaches, probabilistic forecasts are the most appropriate tools for rational decision making in flood warning and flood management.Moreover, they allow taking into account the information from several models to be taken into account by combining into a unique predictive density the deterministic predictions of several hydrological or hydraulic models of a different nature, while in the multi-temporal forecasting extensions, they provide to answers questions such as: Which is the probability of overtopping a dyke in the next 24 h? When will this event be more likely to occur during the next 24 h?The work concludes with a discussion on the still unresolved problems, namely how decisions makers can fully take advantage of the probabilistic forecasts and how these forecasts must be communicated to them in order to meet this objective.     

Improving the Pressurized Flushing Efficiency in Reservoirs: an Experimental Study

Sediment flushing in many reservoirs of the world is accomplished with low efficiency. In this study, a new configuration was proposed for reservoir bottom outlet to increase the pressurized flushing efficiency. In the new configuration, a projecting semi-circular structure was connected to the upstream edge of bottom outlet. It was observed that by employing the projecting bottom outlet, the sediment removal efficiency increased significantly compared to the flushing via typical bottom outlet. In the case of new-configuration bottom outlet with L _sc /D _outlet  = 5.26 and D _sc /D _outlet  = 1.32, the dimensionless length, width and depth of flushing cone increased 280%, 45% and 14%, respectively, compared to the reference test. The proposed structure can ensure the sustainable use of reservoirs.     

Participatory Modeling Workshops in a Water-Stressed Basin Result in Gains in Modeling Capacity but Reveal Disparity in Water Resources Management Priorities

Participatory modeling workshops were held in Sonora, México, with the goal of developing water resources management strategies in a water-stressed basin. A model of the water resources system, consisting of watershed hydrology, water resources infrastructure, and groundwater models, was developed deliberatively in the workshops, along with scenarios of future climate and development. Participants used the final version of the water resources systems model to select management strategies. The performance of the strategies was based on the reliability of meeting current and future demands at a daily time scale over a year’s period. Pre- and post-workshop surveys were developed and administered. The survey questions focused on evaluation of participants’ modeling capacity and the utility and accuracy of the models. The selected water resources strategies and the associated, expected reliability varied widely among participants. Most participants could be clustered into three groups with roughly equal numbers of participants that varied in terms of reliance on expanding infrastructure vs. demand modification; expectations of reliability; and perceptions of social, environmental, and economic impacts. The wide range of strategies chosen and associated reliabilities indicate that there is a substantial degree of uncertainty in how future water resources decisions could be made in the region. The pre- and post-survey results indicate that participants believed their modeling abilities increased and beliefs in the utility of models increased as a result of the workshops.     

Ecosystem Service Impacts of Urban Water Supply and Demand Management

Utilities face the challenge of enhancing long-term water security while minimising undesirable economic, social and environmental impacts of supply and demand management options. This paper provides an example of how the ecosystem services concept can be used to enumerate and organise broad impacts of water supply options. A case study of Adelaide, South Australia, is used to examine costs and benefits associated with different sources of water and source-water mix scenarios. Ecosystem service impacts are estimated using estimates from the literature. Seven water supply and demand management options are considered for Adelaide: 1) the River Murray, 2) Mt. Lofty Ranges catchments, 3) wastewater reuse, 4) desalination, 5) stormwater harvesting, 6) groundwater and 7) water conservation. The largest costs are associated with sourcing water from conservation measures such as water restrictions on outdoor watering estimated at $1.87/kL. Salinity damage costs associated with residential uses are estimated at up to $1.54/kL. Salinity damage costs of wastewater reuse were estimated at $1.16/kL. The largest benefit is coastal amenity services associated with stormwater harvesting and treatment estimated at $1.03/kL. Results show that there is a trade-off between financial costs and ecosystem services impacts with source-water mix scenarios with the highest ecosystem services cost having the lowest financial O&M cost and vice versa. This highlights the importance of taking ecosystem services into account when evaluating water supply options.     

An ionene with spirane structure (spiroionene)

The secondary diamine 1,3,5,7-tetrahydro[1,2c:4,5c'] benzodipyrrole (3) and 1,2,4,5-tetrabromomethylbenzene (1) form a polymeric ionene with spirane structure through a repetitive alkylation reaction. The structure of the product could be proven by¹³C-NMR spectroscopy by comparison with suitable reference compounds. Solutions in aqueous methanol exhibit a typical polyelectrolyte effect. Variation of the counterions produces sufficient solubility in organic solvents. From the crystal structure of a similar model compound one can conclude that the synthesized polymer has a rod-like shape.