Large-deviation inequalities for parameter estimators in stochastic systems

Translated from Kibernetika i Sistemnyi Analiz, No. 2, pp. 95–112, March–April, 1994.     

Changes of the combustion regimes of nongasifying and low-gas systems over the parameter range

The process of combustion of homogeneous and heterogeneous nongasifying and slightly gasifying systems over the range of a number of parameters characterizing the reactive composition and the conditions for the arrangement of the combustion process is studied by using thermocouple and optical methods. The regions of the implementation of different combustion regimes, namely, steady, pulsating, multiple-point, and spin, are determined experimentally.Institute of Structural Macrokinetics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Chernogolovka. Translated from Inzhenerno-Fizicheskii Zhurnal, Vol. 65, No. 4, pp. 407–411, October, 1993.     

Long range peak demand forecasting under conditions of high growth

An extended logistic model with a varying asymptotic upper bound for long-range peak demand forecasting is described. The model has been applied to a typical fast growing system, the Saudi Consolidated Electric Company. The forecasts are compared with actual demands and with those obtained from classical forecasting methods. The model gave relatively accurate peak demand forecasts compared with other classical methods. The model with a single load observation is capable of producing several peak demand forecasts corresponding to different levels of maximum temperature and various levels of social activity. The forecasts produced by the model were also stable irrespective of the length of the ex-post simulation period