Migration analysis using data with time intervals of differing widths

Migration data collected for periods of differing lengths will yield inconsistent population forecasts, inconsistent multiregional life tables, and alternative interpretations of mobility levels and migration patterns. In this paper, examples are first given to illustrate the effects of migration interval choice on demographic variables. The moverstayer model and its generalizations are discussed in their role as models useful in achieving consistency. It is argued that in addition to theievel of mobility, the geographic pattern of migration flows is also affected by the choice of interval width.     

The economic effect of age and education on the regional flows of Black human capital

This paper quantifies and analyzes the flow of human capital caused by the migration of Blacks within the U.S. over time. Detailed characteristics of migration flows for Blacks moving in and out of each of the nine divisions in the U. S. were determined and multiplied by the appropriate value of human capital (discounted earnings approach). These flows were then summed to determine the aggregate inter-regional flows of Black human capital. The effects of age and education on these flows are analyzed as are the probable effects of such flows on regional economic growth.Results of the study show that there is a significant ageeducation interaction effect for Blacks. In addition, these interregional flows suggest that there is a substantial flow of Black human capital from the South to the North and West, and from the North to the West. Significant losses in Black human capital on the part of the South have several rather important public policy implications.     

Planning the post-communist city: Experiences from Sofia

This paper examines adjustments of the urban planning process to the post-communist context in the case of Sofia, the capital of Bulgaria. The main research question is whether master-planning processes have substantially changed from top-down and technocratic (as they certainly were in fascist and then communist Bulgaria) to open and participatory today. The paper tells the story of four master plans—one pre-communist, two communist, and one post-communist. It concludes that despite the increased capacity of the citizenry to both influence and challenge government planning and decision-making, there is little evidence of sharp discontinuity between past and present planning processes.     

Effects of adding organic materials to an acid sulfate soil on the growth of cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.) seedlings

Acid sulfate soils having a pH of less than 3.5 are widespread in Malaysia. Some of these soils are planted to cocoa, but the yield is reported to be low due to soil infertility related to Al toxicity. Cocoa growth is sensitive to the presence of Al in the soil. To a certain extent, Al toxicity in soils can be reduced by organic matter application and to a greater extent in iron-poor acid sulfate soil. A study was conducted to determine the efficacy of various types of organic materials easily available in the country to ameliorate acid sulfate soil infertility for growing cocoa seedlings. The treatments were control (nil), lime (3 t/ha), peat (10% w/w), peat plus green manure (10% w/w), peat plus rice straw (10% w/w), peat plus chicken dung (10% w/w) and peat plus POMS (Palm oil mill sludge) (10% w/w). The growth of cocoa seedlings was affected significantly by the presence of Al in the cocoa tissues. As the amount of Al in the leaves increased, the relative top dry weight of cocoa seedlings decreased. Likewise, the relative plant height was negatively correlated with Al in the leaves. Peat as well as peat in combination with green manure, rice straw, chicken dung or palm oil mill sludge was able to reduce Al toxicity in acid sulfate soil; the highest top dry weight of cocoa seedlings were obtained in the peat plus green manure treatment. The best cocoa seedlings root growth was found for the peat treatment alone. The relative top dry weight of cocoa seedlings was negatively correlated with Al(3+) as well as Al(3+)+Al(OH)(2+)+Al(OH)(2)(+) activity in the soil solution. The critical values for Al(3+) and the combination of Al(3+)+Al(OH)(2+)+Al(OH)(2)(+) activity in the soil solution were 10 microM and 15 microM, respectively.     

Experience with the preconstruction of thawing of soils in the foundation bed of the main building of the Neryungrinsk state area power plant

Conclusions 1. The scheme that we developed is efficient and ensures thawing over a period of 40–45 days. 2. To accelerate thawing by 8–10 days when using two electric heaters in each hole, it is necessary to raise the heaters by 3–4 m after 25 days and continue thawing. 3. An 8–10-day reduction in the thaw time is also possible by using three 1.25-kW electric heaters in each hole in place of two heaters of the same capacity, installing them at depths of 20, 14, and 8 m from the surface. Taking the results of the experimental work account, the State Institute for Special Design developed a plan for the production preconstruction thawing of soils over a area of 12,380 m². The volume of soil thawed was 324,400 m³. Translated from Osnovaniya, Fundamenty i Mekhanika Gruntov, No. 3, pp. 7–8. May–June, 1982.     

Extending the Q system's prediction of support in tunnels employing fuzzy logic and extra parameters

Rock mass classifications predict support measures according to expert rules by rating rock mass and taking into account the span of the opening. A similar procedure is adopted, in this work, and computerized using statistics and fuzzy logic. Fuzzy expert systems are trained with data of previously constructed underground openings. Using subtractive clustering the systems have the intelligence to pick up the relations between input and output and define the rules that represent the system's behavior automatically. These systems are found to predict support to be used more successfully than the Q system. With the introduction of extra input variables, which are important in numerical analysis, such as depth and intact rock strength, an extended fuzzy system is developed. This system is suggested for preliminary use as it is able to predict support even better.     

Cost-benefit analysis of the use of TBT: the case for a treatment approach

The current climate of hostility towards the use of tributyltin (TBT) as an active ingredient in ship anti-fouling paint appears to be based on a very biased assessment of its environmental impact. While many national and international regulatory agencies are moving towards further restriction, and a complete ban is under active discussion, a number of factors appear to have been ignored. The economic impact of a ban on TBT when no adequate substitute exists could be substantial. Environmentally, consequences would include a substantial increase in the consumption of fossil fuel, with corresponding increases in carbon dioxide and sulphur dioxide emissions; the construction of more vessels; the transfer of ship-building, ship-repairing and ship-breaking activities from well-regulated to unregulated or under-regulated areas in the developing world; and a shift from sea transport to less environmentally acceptable forms of transport. Experience in Europe and other parts of the developed world shows that existing restrictions, where they are properly enforced, are probably adequate to alleviate the environmental damage associated with TBT. Some existing legislation acts to inhibit the search for effective substitutes. The environmental benefits of TBT have been ignored. Little thought has been given to a technical, rather than a legislative solution to controlling TBT inputs to the environment. A method is described for treating TBT-contaminated wastewaters, which has been successfully tested in prototype at full scale. Legislative measures against TBT will do nothing to address the problem of the existing backlog of contaminated material, nor even to permit the IMO proposal for the removal of TBT from all ships by 2008 to be successfully concluded in an environmentally safe manner, since no provision has been made for the disposal of the existing TBT; most probably it will be dumped in environmentally sensitive, unregulated areas in the developing world.     

The manual determination of ammonia in fresh waters using an ammonia-sensitive membrane-electrode

The use of a commercially-available ammonia-sensitive membrane-electrode for the manual determination of ammonia in discrete samples of fresh water has been investigated and the analytical procedure is described. The electrode is simple and convenient to use, and a sample can be analyzed in a few minutes. For normal routine analysis, the lower limit of determination is approximately 0·1 mg N 1⁻¹ though smaller concentrations can be measured. The relative standard deviation of analytical results varied from approximately 10 to 3 per cent as ammonia concentration increased from 0·1 to 4 mg N 1⁻¹. Results for samples of river water agreed well with those obtained by absorptiometric methods of analysis; the electrode responds to amines but otherwise appears to be essentially specific for ammonia. Use of the electrode will be advantageous in a number of applications, and it also has good potential for the on-line analysis of fresh waters.     

Effect of Performance Model Accuracy on Optimal Pavement Design

In the first part of this paper, an analysis of the data collected during the American Association of State Highway Officials (AASHO) road test, based on probabilistic duration modeling techniques, is presented. Duration techniques enable the stochastic nature of pavement failure time to be evaluated as well as censored data to be incorporated in the statistical estimation of the model parameters. The second part of this paper presents the use of economic optimization principles for determining the optimal design of flexible pavements. We study the effect of deterioration model accuracy on optimal design and lifecycle costs by comparing three models. The first is a simple regression model developed by the AASHO, which forms the basis of design standards in use today. The second is a regression model that was developed with the same AASHO data set, but that includes a correction for data censoring. The third model is the probabilistic model developed in the first part of this paper. The results show that the AASHO model, when used as an input to lifecycle cost minimization, produces a pavement structural number that is lower than that produced by using the other two deterioration models. This results in shorter pavement lives and higher costs due to more frequent resurfacing. The savings in lifecycle cost accrued by using optimal structural number are shown to be quite significant, offering a sound basis for revising current design practices.