Long range peak demand forecasting under conditions of high growth

An extended logistic model with a varying asymptotic upper bound for long-range peak demand forecasting is described. The model has been applied to a typical fast growing system, the Saudi Consolidated Electric Company. The forecasts are compared with actual demands and with those obtained from classical forecasting methods. The model gave relatively accurate peak demand forecasts compared with other classical methods. The model with a single load observation is capable of producing several peak demand forecasts corresponding to different levels of maximum temperature and various levels of social activity. The forecasts produced by the model were also stable irrespective of the length of the ex-post simulation period     

Serotype-specific amplification of Rickettsia tsutsugamushi DNA by nested polymerase chain reaction

Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) with nested primer pairs was used to diagnose scrub typhus and identify the Rickettsia tsutsugamushi serotype. The primer pairs used for PCR were designed on the basis of the nucleotide sequence of the gene that encodes the 56-kDa antigen. Serotype-specific primers were used in the second PCR amplification. Five serovariants, the Gilliam, Karp, Kato, Kawasaki, and Kuroki strains of R. tsutsugamushi, were identified by nested PCR. In addition, the serotype identified by PCR with DNA from blood clots was the same as that of the strain isolated from five patients with scrub typhus. These findings indicate that this method is useful for diagnosis and identification of the rickettsial serotype in infected patients.     

Local variations of the dynamic elastic modulus around running cracks

The variation of the dynamic elastic modulus in the immediate vicinity of the tip of the running crack was studied through an iterative procedure, based on the theoretical expressions for the stress-field components and the experimental relation between strain rate and elastic modulus. It was found that the elastic modulus varied strongly around the tip of the crack, both in radial and polar sense. Also it was observed that the polar distribution of the elastic modulus presented clear off-axis extrema in directions that were in good agreement with experimentally measured branching angles, thus indicating a possible relation between these two phenomena.     

Trends and variations in neonatal length of in-hospital stay in Canada

The objectives of this study were to evaluate the possible mechanisms involved in prolongation of bleeding time in pre-eclamptic patients receiving a magnesium sulfate infusion to prevent convulsions. Eighteen pre-eclamptic patients near term or at term (4 cases 33 to 35 weeks; the remainder > 36 weeks) were studied. Fifteen of them received magnesium sulfate infusion; 3 did not and served as controls. Bleeding time (modified Ivy method with Surgicutt), platelet count, platelet aggregation pattern, as well as serum arachidonic acid metabolites [thromboxane B2 (TxB2) and 6-Keto-prostaglandin F1 alpha (6-Keto-PGF1 alpha)] werde done on admission to the labor floor (before magnesium infusion) and repeated at discontinuation of the infusion, 12-24 hours postpartum; the controls received the second test 24 hours postpartum. Thirteen of 15 patients receiving magnesium sulfate had an increase in bleeding time from an average of 6 minutes 31 seconds to 11 minutes 56 seconds, an 82% rise (p < 0.004). In 2 there was a decrease. Among the 3 controls the averages were 6 minutes 38 seconds and 6 minutes 3 seconds. The total magnesium given ranged from 52.5 to 145 grams. Platelet counts averaged 251,000/mm3 (range 145,000-519,000). Platelet aggregation pattern done in 11 patients and was normal and unchanged after magnesium in 10 of the patients with increased bleeding time and one control. TxB2 and 6-Keto-PGF1 alpha levels did not change significantly either after magnesium administration (688 and 135 pgm/ml, to 654 and 117) or in controls (695 and 230 pgm/ml, to 445 and 225). Likewise, the ratio of these 2 substances did not change in either group (6.3 to 6.6, and 4.2 to 2.2). There was no correlation between duration of infusion or total magnesium given and directions of small changes observed. This study confirms a prior preliminary observation that magnesium sulfate infusion, as currently used to prevent eclamptic convulsions, induces a significant prolongation of bleeding time. This effect is mediated neither by changes in platelets count or aggregation pattern, nor by changing the level or ratios of serum arachidonic acid metabolites (TxB2 and 6-Keto-PGF1 alpha). Further studies are needed to clarify the mechanism of this clinically important observation of increased bleeding following magnesium sulfate infusion.     

Cochlear implants in children: an analysis of use over a three-year period

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to determine whether children continue to wear their cochlear implant systems 1 and 3 years after implantation. STUDY DESIGN: The design was a prospective study based on the analysis of forced-choice questionnaires on implant use completed independently by parents and teachers. SETTING: The study was performed at a dedicated pediatric cochlear implant program in a tertiary referral center in the United Kingdom. PATIENTS: All 85 consecutively implanted children who had reached the 1-year interval after implantation and 37 children who had reached the 3-year assessment interval after implantation participated. The patients represented all socioeconomic status groups, the entire range of educational settings, and often lived at a considerable distance from the implant center. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Parents and local teachers were asked to describe implant use in the following categories: 1) all of the time; 2) most of the time; 3) some of the time; and 4) none of the time. RESULTS: One year after implantation, parents and teachers, respectively, rated 79 (93%) and 82 (96%) children as full-time users (category 1). Parents rated six children (7%) as users most of the time (category 2), and teachers rated three children (4%) as users most of the time. No child was rated as an occasional or nonuser (category 3 or 4). At 3 years after implantation, 33 (89%) and 34 (95%) children were rated as full-time users (category 1) by parents and teachers, respectively. Parents judged four children (11%) and teachers rated two children (5%) to be users most of the time (category 2). Again, no child was rated in category 3 or 4 as an occasional or nonuser. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of implanted children use their implant systems all of the time over a 3-year period after implantation when selected appropriately and given appropriate follow-up.     

Static-state feedback control of discrete-event systems underpartial observation

Studies static-state feedback control of discrete-event systems under partial observation. The authors present a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of a static-state feedback controller. A static controller is a special case of a dynamic controller studied by Kumar et al. The authors' condition, however, has computational advantage in contrast to those obtained by Kumar et al. The authors also present a necessary and sufficient condition under which the modular feedback synthesis is possible