Risk assessment of process models

The IDEF methodology has been extensively used for modeling various processes. Qualitative and quantitative reliability analysis and risk assessment of IDEF models is of interest to industry for several reasons. It identifies critical activities in a process, improves the process performance, and decreases downtime and operating cost of the process. To evaluate the risk associated with an IDEF3 model formal tools and techniques are required. In this paper, the fault tree analysis technique and minimum cut and path sets generation algorithms are applied for reliability evaluation and risk assessment of the parent activities in an IDEF3 model. A structural and reliability importance measure for parent activities in an IDEF3 model as well as for the elementary activities in a decomposed model are presented.     

Ultrasonic focused waveform generation using time reversal acoustic focusing system

Abstract The concept of Time Reversal Acoustics (TRA) provides an elegant possibility of both temporal and spatial concentrating of acoustic energy in highly inhomogeneous media. We explored the possibility of generating acoustical signals with arbitrary waveforms using the TRA Focusing System (TRA FS). A method has been developed to predict TRA-focused ultrasound waveforms and spatial distribution by using the measurements of transfer function of transfer function relating the signal at the TRA transmitter to that at the focusing point. The developed approach for TRA-focused signal waveform prediction from the results of direct signal measurements was tested on ten-channel TRA FS based on aluminum resonator with glued piezotransducers. The TRA FS operated in the frequency band of 100–1000 kHz. The formation of ultrasonic signals with various envelopes was demonstrated experimentally. The calculated and experimentally measured waveforms and spatial distributions were practically identical. We formed triangular, rectangular, and amplitude modulated tone burst signals with different modulation frequencies in the focal region. The level of side lobes in the generated signals was much lower than that for standard TRA focusing.     

Bounds on System Reliability by Linear Programming

Bounds on system probability in terms of marginal or joint component probabilities are of interest when exact solutions cannot be obtained. Currently, bounding formulas employing unicomponent probabilities are available for series and parallel systems, and formulas employing bi- and higher-order component probabilities are available for series systems. No theoretical formulas exist for general systems. It is shown in this paper that linear programming (LP) can be used to compute bounds for any system for any level of information available on the component probabilities. Unlike the theoretical bicomponent and higher-order bounds, the LP bounds are independent of the ordering of the components and are guaranteed to produce the narrowest possible bounds for the given information. Furthermore, the LP bounds can incorporate any type of information, including an incomplete set of component probabilities or inequality constraints on component probabilities. Numerical examples involving series, parallel and general structural systems are used to demonstrate the methodology.     

Model correction factor method for reliability problems involving integrals of non-Gaussian random fields

The model correction factor method (MCFM) is used in conjunction with the first-order reliability method (FORM) to solve structural reliability problems involving integrals of non-Gaussian random fields. The approach replaces the limit-state function with an idealized one, in which the integrals are considered to be Gaussian. Conventional FORM analysis yields the linearization point of the idealized limit-state surface. A model correction factor is then introduced to push the idealized limit-state surface onto the actual limit-state surface. A few iterations yield a good approximation of the reliability index for the original problem. This method has application to many civil engineering problems that involve random fields of material properties or loads. An application to reliability analysis of foundation piles illustrates the proposed method.     

Bayesian Network Enhanced with Structural Reliability Methods: Methodology

We combine Bayesian networks (BNs) and structural reliability methods (SRMs) to create a new computational framework, termed enhanced BN (eBN), for reliability and risk analysis of engineering structures and infrastructure. BNs are efficient in representing and evaluating complex probabilistic dependence structures, as present in infrastructure and structural systems, and they facilitate Bayesian updating of the model when new information becomes available. On the other hand, SRMs enable accurate assessment of probabilities of rare events represented by computationally demanding physically based models. By combining the two methods, the eBN framework provides a unified and powerful tool for efficiently computing probabilities of rare events in complex structural and infrastructure systems in which information evolves in time. Strategies for modeling and efficiently analyzing the eBN are described by way of several conceptual examples. The companion paper applies the eBN methodology to example structural and infrastructure systems.     

Simultaneous Estradiol and Levonorgestrel Transdermal Delivery from a 7-day Patch: In Vitro and In Vivo Drug Deliveries of Three Formulations

ABSTRACT

A new drug-in-adhesive transdermal patch was developed to deliver both estradiol and levonorgestrel through the skin over a 7-day period, but at different rates. This report elucidates the in vitro and in vivo biopharmaceutical studies that were necessary during the development of this product. Three test patches had to be manufactured, all delivering estradiol at the same rate, but delivering levonorgestrel at three different rates so that a levonorgestrel dose response could be studied in the clinic. An in vitro hairless mouse skin model (HMS) using modified Franz diffusion cells was used to select the test products delivering levonorgestrel in the order of 1:2:3. HMS experiments also demonstrated that the presence of estradiol did not affect the flux of levonorgestrel. Two in vivo studies in postmenopausal women showed that at steady state (four weeks of once-weekly dosing) the three test products all delivered estradiol at comparable rates. Similarly, the levonorgestrel deliveries for the three test products were in the order expected. The target fluxes of both drugs were achieved in these three test products by varying the drug loads and patch size. That this approach was successful is evidence of the value of using the HMS penetration experiments in transdermal product development and should provide useful insights for other formulations having to develop complex systems. One of the test products is now marketed as Climara Pro^TM.     

基于试验数据建模的改进地震易损性分析

改进的疲劳模型强调了抗震性能的统计相关性,这是从所有普遍但是未知的影响因素中归纳出来的。提出的模型通过个体试件极限状态计算公式的一般变量来考虑相关性。此外,连续地震中对同一个构件的观察结果也具有相关性,在评估建模参数时,考虑了这个事实。通过变电站设备失效的一系列算例证实,改进的公式可以导致与经验结论明显不同的预测结果。此外,传统方法低估了疲劳估测相关的统计不确定性。对统计的不确定性效果和系统疲劳性进行了总结,数值算例证明这些影响很明显,并且需要在冗余系统中加以考虑。     

Three-dimensional simulation for negative resistance characteristics of parasitic bipolar transistor in a small-sized mosfet structure

The behaviours of parasitic bipolar transistors are investigated by exploring the physical mechanisms of negative resistance characteristics generated in a small-sized MOSFET structure. Physical experiments and three-dimensional simulations verify the expected negative resistance characteristics. The effects of variations of device parameters such as injected substrate current levels, doping concentrations, channel widths, and physical device sizes are investigated by simulation. According to simulation results, the operation of a parasitic bipolar transistor is initiated by the injected substrate current; this explains the negative resistance characteristics occurring at low operating voltages.     

Microstructural Development of Coherent Tetragonal Precipitates in Magnesium-Partially-Stabilized Zirconia: A Computer Simulation

A new computer simulation technique for modeling morphological pattern formation during nucleation, growth, and coarsening of coherent misfitting particles is developed. Microstructure evolution during precipitation of tetragonal phase from Mg-partially-stabilized cubic zirconia is investigated. Our computer simulation shows that during the initial stage of precipitation, the tetragonal particles formed by homogeneous nucleation display strong alignment along certain crystallographic directions, forming the so-called "tweed" pattern. During subsequent growth of the spatially correlated nuclei, an alternating band structure is observed, with each individual band consisting of lens-like-shaped tetragonal phase particles of the same orientation variant dispersed in the cubic matrix. The particles in the neighboring bands are twin-related. The microstructures obtained in our computer simulation seem to agree well with the experimental observations.