Catastrophe loss modelling of storm-surge flood risk in eastern England

Probabilistic catastrophe loss modelling techniques, comprising a large stochastic set of potential storm-surge flood events, each assigned an annual rate of occurrence, have been employed for quantifying risk in the coastal flood plain of eastern England. Based on the tracks of the causative extratropical cyclones, historical storm-surge events are categorized into three classes, with distinct windfields and surge geographies. Extreme combinations of "tide with surge" are then generated for an extreme value distribution developed for each class. Fragility curves are used to determine the probability and magnitude of breaching relative to water levels and wave action for each section of sea defence. Based on the time-history of water levels in the surge, and the simulated configuration of breaching, flow is time-stepped through the defences and propagated into the flood plain using a 50 m horizontal-resolution digital elevation model. Based on the values and locations of the building stock in the flood plain, losses are calculated using vulnerability functions linking flood depth and flood velocity to measures of property loss. The outputs from this model for a UK insurance industry portfolio include "loss exceedence probabilities" as well as "average annualized losses", which can be employed for calculating coastal flood risk premiums in each postcode.     

The effects of three types of aggression on vascular processes.

"Eighty college-age-subjects underwent either a frustrating or nonfrustrating experience and subsequently were placed in one of four aggression-conditions: Physical, Verbal, Fantasy, or No Aggression. The intent of this 2 X 4 factorial design experiment was to measure the effects of each type of aggression on frustration-produced-elevations in systolic blood pressure and heart rate. The results indicated that frustrated subjects who were given an opportunity to physically or verbally aggress against the frustrator, manifested returns on both physiological measures to the levels of the Low Frustration control subjects. Frustrated subjects in the Fantasy and No Aggression conditions exhibited significantly elevated systolic pressures and heart rates at the post-aggression-recording of these measures." (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Mathematical modelling of drug transport in emulsion systems

Two mathematical models for the prediction of drug transport in triphasic (oil, water and micellar) emulsion systems as a function of micellar concentration have been developed and these models were evaluated by comparing experimental and simulated data. Fick's first law was used to derive a transport model for hydrophilic drugs, assuming that the oil/water (o/w) partitioning process was fast compared with membrane transport and therefore drug transport was limited by the membrane. Consecutive rate equations were used to model transport of hydrophobic drugs in emulsion systems assuming that the o/w interface acts as a barrier to drug transport. Benzoic acid and phenol were selected as hydrophilic model drugs. Phenylazoaniline and benzocaine were selected as hydrophobic model drugs. Transport studies at pH 3.0 and 7.0 were conducted using side-by-side diffusion cells. According to the hydrophilic model, an increase in micellar concentration is expected to decrease drug transport rates. The effective permeability coefficients (Peff) of drugs were calculated using an equation relating Peff and the total apparent volume of drug distribution (determined experimentally using drug/membrane permeability and partition coefficient values). The hydrophobic model was fitted to the experimental data for the cumulative amount of model drug in the receiver cells using a weighted least-squares estimation program (PCNONLIN). The oil/continuous phase partitioning rates (k1) and the membrane transport rates (k2) were estimated. The goodness of fit was assessed from the correlation coefficients of plots of predicted versus experimental data. The predicted data were consistent with the experimental data for both the hydrophilic and hydrophobic models.     

Small-angle neutron scattering study of amorphous polycarbonate

Experiments have been performed on deuterated polycarbonate chains with five different molecular weights, randomly dispersed in a protonated polycarbonate matrix. There is evidence for some ester interchange in the melt. This requires that the values of M_w obtained from the SANS data be used. The measured radii of gyration were found to follow the relationship: R_w = βM^a_w, with β = 0.457(9) and α = 0.5. The high value for β compared with that for polystyrene (β = 0.27) is a reflection of the stiffer backbone in polycarbonate.     

Increasing mercury in yellow perch at a hotspot in Atlantic Canada, Kejimkujik National Park

In the mid-1990s, yellow perch (Perca flavescens) and common loons (Gavia immer) from Kejimkujik National Park and National Historic Site (KNPNHS), Nova Scotia, Canada, had among the highest mercury (Hg) concentrations across North America. In 2006 and 2007, we re-examined 16 lakes to determine whether there have been changes in Hg in the loon's preferred prey, yellow perch. Total Hg concentrations were measured in up to nine perch in each of three size classes (5-10 cm, 10-15 cm, and 15-20 cm) consumed by loons. Between 1996/97 and 2006/07, polynomial regressions indicated that Hg in yellow perch increased an average of 29% in ten lakes, decreased an average of 21% in three, and were unchanged in the remaining three lakes. In 2006/07, perch in 75% of the study lakes had Hg concentrations (standardized to 12-cm fish length) equal to or above the concentration (0.21 μg·g(-1) ww) associated with a 50% reduction in maximum productivity of loons, compared with only 56% of these lakes in 1996/97. Mercury contamination currently poses a greater threat to loon health than a decade ago, and further reductions in anthropogenic emissions should be considered to reduce its impacts on ecosystem health.     

Tying capacity of web cleat connections in fire,Part 2: Development of component-based model

The companion paper has reported the results from a test programme in which web cleat connections were subjected to various combinations of shear, tying and moment actions at elevated temperatures. These tests showed that web cleat connections have very good tying resistance and rotational capacity, mainly due to the large deformation of which the web cleats are capable. In this paper a mechanical model is developed to predict the behaviour of web cleats subjected to tying forces. This model considers the formation of four plastic hinges on each angle and the effect of the angles opening in enhancing their resistance. It is capable of representing the action of the angles in component-based models for web cleat connections, in which algorithms for other components, including bolts in tension, bolts in double shear and holes in bearing, are already available. Failure criteria determined from the tests have been introduced into the models for components such as web cleats and bolts in double shear. This enables the component-based assembly to predict the occurrence and the sequence of connection failure. The behaviour of the connection predicted by the component-based model shows good correlation with the test results, which indicates that the developed model can be adopted in structural frame analysis to consider connection failure.     

Behaviour of composite cellular steel — Concrete beams at elevated temperatures

The behaviour of composite cellular floor beams is becoming important as such members are increasingly used in multistorey buildings. In the event of fire, this issue becomes increasingly critical, particularly for exposed steelwork. In a fire situation, a composite beam has a much higher perimeter area exposed to fire in its lower web-flange section than in the upper web-flange section, and so the temperature distribution across a composite beam is usually non-uniform. The reduction in fire of the strength and stiffness of the material properties of the perforated steel beam, as well as differential thermal expansion, therefore becomes an important influence on the overall behaviour of the composite beam. The objective of this research is to enhance the level of understanding of the generic behaviour of composite cellular floor beams in fire conditions. In this paper, three-dimensional nonlinear finite element models of composite cellular floor beams have been developed, taking into consideration the influence of the changes in material properties with temperature. Experimental data from furnace tests on cellular composite floor beams obtained from previous research work has been used to validate the FE models. An analytical model based on existing design guides is also presented in this paper. It is concluded that finite element analysis results are in good agreement with the experimental data, and all the failure modes have been accurately predicted. The proposed simplified analytical methods show reasonable agreement with the test and FE results, and are always conservative.