State-space ARIMA for supply-chain forecasting

ARIMA is seldom used in supply chains in practice. There are several reasons, not the least of which is the small sample size of available data, which restricts the usage of the model. Keeping in mind this restriction, we discuss in this paper a state-space ARIMA model with a single source of error and show how it can be efficiently used in the supply-chain context, especially in cases when only two seasonal cycles of data are available. We propose a new order selection algorithm for the model and compare its performance with the conventional ARIMA on real data. We show that the proposed model performs well in terms of both accuracy and computational time in comparison with other ARIMA implementations, which makes it efficient in the supply-chain context.     

Behavior of 316L stainless steel containing corrosion pits under cyclic loading

The environmental performance of 316L grade stainless steel, in the form of tensile specimens containing a single corrosion pit with various aspect ratios, under cyclic loading in aerated chloride solutions is investigated in this study. Results from environmental tests were compared and contrasted with those obtained using finite element analysis (FEA). Fractography of the failed specimens obtained from experiments revealed that fatigue crack initiation took place at the base of the shallow pit. The crack initiation shifted towards the shoulder and the mouth of the pit for pits of increasing depth. This process is well predicted by FEA, as the strain contour maps show that strain is the highest around the centric strip of the pit. However, for shallow pits, local strain is uniformly distributed around that strip but begins to concentrate more towards the shoulder and the mouth region for increasingly deep pits.     

Hot corrosion Type II of FeCr‐based model alloys for boiler and heat exchanger applications

The hot corrosion Type II of the alloys FeCr20, FeCr20Ni10, FeCr20Ni20, and FeCr20Co10 is investigated at 700°C in air + 0.5% SO₂ with deposits consisting of Na₂SO₄ and a eutectic mixture of Na₂SO₄ and MgSO₄ for 24, 100, and 300 h. The alloying elements nickel and cobalt have a positive influence when tests are conducted using a MgSO₄‐Na₂SO₄ deposit. In this case, they reduce the metal loss and increase the time to the propagation stage. In contrast, when the alloys are exposed with a Na₂SO₄ deposit, these alloying elements increase the metal loss and allow for the transition to the propagation stage because they can form molten phases with the Na₂SO₄. During the incubation stage an oxide scale forms on the FeCr20 alloy, which is thicker than the one formed during exposure without a deposit, and iron oxides are observed, which precipitate in the deposit. The propagation stage occurs by a dissolution and precipitation mechanism forming localized pitting attack. Iron is the main species that dissolves and precipitates, while chromium remains mainly as an oxide beneath the initial surface. The additional elements are found in the pit and in the salt deposit.