The road to maturity: navigating between craft and science

C. Ebert presents his views on the state of software engineering as a field, its roots and inherent conflicts, its relationship to other engineering disciplines, where it is headed, and what we can do to influence that direction. T. Matsubara, T. Webb, M. Pezze, and O.W. Bertelsen offer a spectrum of further insights     

Development of a recurrent Sigma-Pi neural network rainfall forecasting system in Hong Kong

At the moment, weather forecasting is still an art — the experience and intuition of forecasters play a significant role in determining the quality of forecasting. This paper describes the development of a new approach to rainfall forecasting using neural networks. It deals with the extraction of information from radar images and an evaluation of past rain gauge records to provide shortterm rainfall forecasting. All of the meteorological data were provided by the Royal Observatory of Hong Kong (ROHK). Preprocessing procedures were essential for this neural network rainfall forecasting. The forecast of the rainfall was performed every half an hour so that a storm warning signal can be delivered to the public in advance. The network architecture is based on a recurrent Sigma-Pi network. The results are very promising, and this neural-based rainfall forecasting system is capable of providing a rain storm warning signal to the Hong Kong public one hour ahead.     

A Metallographic Study of Abnormal Grain Growth During Aging of a β-Quenched Zr-1.14 Wt% Cr-0.08 Wt% Fe Alloy

Results are reported of a detailed optical and electron metallographic study of the effects of variations in quenching rate from the β-phase and aging temperature in the + ZrCr₂ phase region, on the recrystallization and grain growth characteristics of Zr-1.14 wt% Cr-0.08 wt% Fe alloy used for nuclear fuel sheathing. It is shown that certain quenching rates, which produce a mixed martensitic-Widmanstätten structure, should be avoided during the fabrication of fuel sheathing, since recrystallization and grain growth occurs at a much lower temperature than a material quenched at such a rate that the structure is wholly Widmanstätten or wholly martensitic. Preaging at 350 or 450°C prior to the high-temperature (700–750°C) aging reduces the incidence of recrystallization and grain growth.     

Artificial neural networks for coordination and control: The portability of experiential representations

It is time to locate connectionist representation theory in the new wave of robotics research. The utility of representations developed in artificial neural networks (ANNs) during learning has been demonstrated in cognitive science research since the 1980s. The research reported here puts learned representations to work in a decentered control task, the disembodied arm problem, in which a mobile robot operates an arm fixed to a table to pick up objects. There is no physical linkage between the arm and the robot and so the robot's point of view must be decentered. This is done by developing a modular Artificial Neural Net system in three stages: (i) a classifier net is trained with laser scan data to output transformationally invariant position classes; (ii) an arm net is trained for picking up objects; (iii) an inter net is trained to communicate and coordinate the sensing and acting. The completed system is shown to create new nonsymbolic transformationally invariant representations in order to perform the effective generalization of decentered viewpoints.     

Effect of hygiene measures, water sanitation and oral rehydration therapy on diarrhea in children less than five years old in the south of Ivory Coast

BACKGROUND: Gastric sucrose permeability is a noninvasive marker that reliably increases in association with gastrointestinal injury due to use of nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs. Despite the effect of Helicobacter pylori infection on the gastric mucosa, in a previous study we were unable to demonstrate that H. pylori infection was associated with abnormal gastric sucrose permeability. Our goal in this study was to explore further whether H. pylori infection changed gastric permeability; therefore, we evaluated the effect of treatment of H. pylori infection on gastric permeability to sucrose and the relation of sucrose permeability to density of polymorphonuclear leukocytes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Five hundred milliliters of a solution containing 100 gm of sucrose was ingested by the subject at bedtime. Overnight urine was collected and assayed for sucrose by high-performance liquid chromatography. Sucrose permeability was assessed both before and approximately 4 weeks after anti-H. pylori therapy. RESULTS: Seventeen asymptomatic H. pylori-infected volunteers participated; 8 were cured. Sucrose permeability was in the range commonly found in normal controls both before and after anti-H. pylori therapy (mean excretion, 76.3 mg; range, 13-171 mg). Gastric sucrose permeability correlated with the density of polymorphonulcear cell infiltration of the mucosa. Cure of the H. pylori infection was associated with a small but significant decrease in sucrose permeability (98.8 +/- 18 mg to 51.7 +/- 9.8 mg (p = .01). Sucrose permeability was greater in those with a high density of mucosal polymorphonuclear cells compared to those with lower scores (119.5 +/- 4 vs 71.4 +/- 13 for those with scores > or = 5 compared to scores < or = 4; p = .023). Failed therapy resulted in an increase in the mucosal density of polymorphonuclear infiltration and sucrose permeability (56.4 +/- 13 mg-99.7 +/- 19 mg pretreatment vs posttreatment, respectively; p = .031). CONCLUSION: H. pylori gastritis causes a small but measurable increase in gastric permeability to sucrose that may reflect epithelial transmigration of neutrophils.     

Study of the heart rate and energy expenditure of ponies during transport

The energy expenditure and heart rate of five Shetland ponies were measured during transport and compared with the values recorded while they were at rest and walking. Secondary aims of the study were to investigate whether there was any correlation between heart rate and energy expenditure and whether different orientations affected the values to different degrees. The measurements were recorded at one-minute intervals while the ponies were at rest, walking and being transported in four different orientations, on journeys lasting 30 minutes. There were significant increases (P < 0.001) in both heart rate and energy expenditure during transport which were similar to those associated with walking, and there was a strong correlation between the two measurements. There was no conclusive evidence that orientation affected the measurements, but it appeared that rear facing transport might have had the least effect.     

Peer evaluation. A visual picture

To meet the criteria of role accountability, nursing competence and ongoing staff development, an improved peer-evaluation system was designed to continuously monitor these new roles. This peer-evaluation process converts evaluation input into data, giving staff a visual picture of how their performance compares within their peer group. This peer-evaluation process was designed as a tool to assist in staff growth and development, not as a punitive system.     

Magnetic resonance of the encephalon in 17 patients with ocular Beh?et''s disease

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the relationships between patient and physician pretreatment expectations of pain relief and subsequent pain relief reported by chronic pain patients immediately after treatment. DESIGN: Prospective study of consecutive patients undergoing a procedure in a pain clinic for treatment of chronic pain. Patients rated their current pain level and their expectation of pain relief immediately prior to undergoing a procedure (e.g., intravenous drug infusion, nerve block) for the treatment of chronic pain. Simultaneously and independently, the treating physician completed a similar questionnaire. At completion of the procedure, patients rated their current pain level and degree of pain relief. SETTING: University of Washington Multidisciplinary Pain Center procedure suite. PATIENTS: Forty-six consecutive chronic pain patients. INTERVENTION: Intravenous drug infusions and nerve blocks. OUTCOME MEASURES: Current pain and pain relief ratings. RESULTS: Patients' pain relief expectation ratings were not correlated significantly with their postprocedure pain relief ratings or pre-post procedure changes in pain ratings. However, a statistically significant correlation was found between physician expectations of pain relief and patient pain relief ratings and patient pre-post procedure changes in pain. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study suggest that physicians are better predictors than are patients of patients responses to these procedures and/or that physicians may somehow subtly communicate their expectations to patients during the procedure, and these expectations then influence patient response. Patient pretreatment expectations may not always play a significant role in nonspecific treatment effects.     

An EIA method on single donor solubilized HLA antigens for the identification of anti-HLA antibodies

Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) is an immunologically mediated disease in which activated T lymphocytes attack and destroy epithelial cells in the small intralobular bile ducts of genetically susceptible patients. This article reviews the results of treatment of PBC with immunomodulatory agents. Results with drugs such as glucocorticoids, azathioprine, and chlorambucil have been disappointing because of either limited efficacy (azathioprine), toxicity (chlorambucil), or both (glucocorticoids). Colchicine improved tests of liver function in three prospective studies and was associated with improved survival for up to 4 years. However, survival benefits were lost at 8 years. Colchicine appears to slow the rate of progression of PBC but not to stop it. Preliminary results suggest that colchicine may have synergistic effects if used together with ursodeoxycholic acid, particularly in patients who are only partially responsive to ursodeoxycholic acid. Results with cyclosporine have been disappointing because of limited efficacy and predictable toxicity. The modest improvement in tests of liver function and survival are counterbalanced by the development of hypertension in some and worsening renal function in most. There is little beneficial effect on symptoms or histology. Results with methotrexate are promising. There are improvements in symptoms and tests of liver function that are equal to those seen with ursodeoxycholic acid and significant improvement in liver histology. Some patients, particularly those with striking inflammation and granulomas in portal triads, appear to have achieved sustained remission while on methotrexate. The effects of methotrexate are additive to those of ursodeoxycholic acid in patients whose blood tests have responded only partially to ursodeoxycholic acid. The most effective treatment of PBC will most likely use a combination of drugs such as ursodeoxycholic acid, colchicine, and methotrexate.     

Analysis of the antidiabetic drug acarbose by capillary electrophoresis

This study describes the derivatization of the pseudooligosaccharide acarbose and its main metabolite, component 2, with 7-aminonaphthalene-1,3-disulfonic acid (ANDS) in human urine. Their efficient separation was possible by means of capillary zone electrophoresis, using a capillary tube of fused-silica containing 100 mM triethylammonium phosphate buffer, pH 1.5. On column laser-induced fluorescence allowed the detection of the pseudooligosaccharides in human urine in the nanomolar range. With this method, acarbose and component 2 were quantified in human urine after application of 300 mg of acarbose.