Characteristics of day‐ahead wind power forecast errors in Nordic countries and benefits of aggregation

The growing proportion of wind power in the Nordic power system increases day‐ahead forecasting errors, which have a link to the rising need for balancing power. However, having a large interconnected synchronous power system has its benefits, because it enables to aggregate imbalances from large geographical areas. In this paper, day‐ahead forecast errors from four Nordic countries and the impacts of wind power plant dispersion on forecast errors in areas of different sizes are studied. The forecast accuracy in different regions depends on the amount of the total wind power capacity in the region, how dispersed the capacity is and the forecast model applied. Further, there is a saturation effect involved, after which the reduction in the relative forecast error is not very large anymore. The correlations of day‐ahead forecast errors between areas decline rapidly when the distance increases. All error statistics show a strong decreasing trend up to the area sizes of 50,000 km². The average mean absolute error (MAE) in different regions is 5.7% of installed capacity. However, MAE of a smaller area can be over 8% of the capacity, but when all the Nordic regions are aggregated together, the capacity‐normalized MAE decreases to 2.5%. The average of the largest errors for different regions is 39.8% and when looking at the largest forecast errors for smaller areas, the largest errors can exceed 80% of the installed capacity, whereas at the Nordic level, the maximum forecast error is only 13.5% of the installed capacity. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Abrasive wear of steel against gravel with different rock–steel combinations

Wear testing equipment and tests used in research laboratories are often miniature or simplified versions of real applications. For example standardized ASTM dry sand rubber wheel abrasion test G 65 and pin abrasion test G 132 are widely used to study materials’ abrasion wear resistance. The test results, however, do not always correlate too well with the results obtained from real wear conditions. One reason for this is, for example, that in the crushing applications of mining industry the abrasive size is usually much larger than that used in the laboratory wear tests. To study the abrasive wear caused by larger size gravel, new three-body abrasion test equipment was therefore constructed. The equipment uses the pin-on-disk principle with free abrasive particles of sizes up to 10 mm. During the test the pin is repeatedly pressed against a fixed amount of abrasive that is rotating with the disk having confining walls. As the pin is prevented from touching the counterbody, only the abrasive acts as the wearing agent.Three steels of different hardnesses were cross-tested as pin–disk pairs and as pins against a rubber disk using three igneous rock gravels with different crushability properties as abrasives. The wear was measured as mass loss from both the pin and the disk, and the rock comminution was measured by sieving. The results indicate that the mechanism of wear is greatly affected by the hardness of the counterbody. When using large size abrasives, the rate of comminution is also a very important factor that can significantly affect the wear test results.     

Direct computation of critical equilibrium states for spatial beams and frames

In this paper, explicit formulas for second order derivatives of the residual vector with respect to the state variables for a geometrically exact 3D beam element based on the Reissner's model are presented. These derivatives are required when a direct non‐linear stability eigenvalue problem is solved by the Newton's method. If the external load is parametrized by a single parameter, such an eigenvalue problem consists of solving the critical state variables, the eigenmode, and the critical load parameter from the equation system consisting of the equilibrium equations, the criticality condition, and some auxiliary conditions depending on the type of a critical point. Copyright ©2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A super-oscillatory lens optical microscope for subwavelength imaging

The past decade has seen an intensive effort to achieve optical imaging resolution beyond the diffraction limit. Apart from the Pendry-Veselago negative index superlens, implementation of which in optics faces challenges of losses and as yet unattainable fabrication finesse, other super-resolution approaches necessitate the lens either to be in the near proximity of the object or manufactured on it, or work only for a narrow class of samples, such as intensely luminescent or sparse objects. Here we report a new super-resolution microscope for optical imaging that beats the diffraction limit of conventional instruments and the recently demonstrated near-field optical superlens and hyperlens. This non-invasive subwavelength imaging paradigm uses a binary amplitude mask for direct focusing of laser light into a subwavelength spot in the post-evanescent field by precisely tailoring the interference of a large number of beams diffracted from a nanostructured mask. The new technology, which--in principle--has no physical limits on resolution, could be universally used for imaging at any wavelength and does not depend on the luminescence of the object, which can be tens of micrometres away from the mask. It has been implemented as a straightforward modification of a conventional microscope showing resolution better than λ/6.     

Design of non-paraxial array illuminators by step-transition perturbation approach

Abstract

We introduce an efficient Fourier-domain formulation of an approximate method to model non-paraxial diffractive elements. The method is based on evaluation of local field perturbations caused by abrupt surface-profile transitions. It facilitates fast parametric optimization of binary and four-level diffractive array illuminators in the non-paraxial domain of diffractive optics. Comparison with rigorous electromagnetic theory of gratings shows that optimization with the perturbation method gives accurate results if the smallest feature size in the surface profile is larger than one wavelength. Some binary designs are demonstrated using electron beam lithography.     

Bi-level optimization for a dynamic multiobjective problem

In this article, a bi-level optimization problem covering upper (design) and lower (operation) levels is defined and a solution procedure for bi-level optimization problems is presented. This is devised as a dynamic multiobjective optimization problem, i.e. the values of the control and state variables change over a predefined time horizon and several competing criteria are optimized simultaneously. Moreover, the interaction between the upper and lower levels is analysed. The benefits of bi-level dynamic multiobjective optimization are illustrated in detail by examining an industrial case in which the design of a paper mill (upper level) and the mill operation (lower level) are optimized at the same time. However, the problem definition and the solution procedure are not limited to any specific application but can be exploited in many different industrial areas.     

Merocyanine/C60 Planar Heterojunction Solar Cells: Effect of Dye Orientation on Exciton Dissociation and Solar Cell Performance

In this study the charge dissociation at the donor/acceptor heterointerface of thermally evaporated planar heterojunction merocyanine/C₆₀ organic solar cells is investigated. Deposition of the donor material on a heated substrate as well as post‐annealing of the complete devices at temperatures above the glass transition temperature of the donor material results in a twofold increase of the fill factor. An analytical model employing an electric‐field‐dependent exciton dissociation mechanism reveals that geminate recombination is limiting the performance of as‐deposited cells. Fourier‐transform infrared ellipsometry shows that, at temperatures above the glass transition temperature of the donor material, the orientation of the dye molecules in the donor films undergoes changes upon annealing. Based on this finding, the influence of the dye molecules’ orientations on the charge‐transfer state energies is calculated by quantum mechanical/molecular mechanics methods. The results of these detailed studies provide new insight into the exciton dissociation process in organic photovoltaic devices, and thus valuable guidelines for designing new donor materials.     

Fusion technology activities at JET: Latest results

The JET Task Force Fusion Technology (TF-FT) was launched in 2000 to use the unique capabilities, facilities and operating experience at JET to provide significant contributions to the research programme on both JET and ITER. This paper presents the most recent results obtained within the JET TF-FT programme.The Tritium (T) retention measurements have confirmed high surface but little bulk T concentrations on the MKII-SRP divertor tiles and T thermal desorption tests confirmed the necessity to reach at least 600 °C. From the 2007 shutdown the MKII-HD (more ITER like) divertor has revealed some slight changes in the nature of the erosion/deposition. In order to improve analysis, time resolution devices such as quartz micro-balances and rotating collectors have been located beneath the divertor for deposition and plasma physics correlations. Due to improvement of dedicated models and technologies, in situ laser techniques for detritiation and characterisation/removal have provided encouraging results on quantitative characteristics (composition, thickness, adherence, temperature) of deposited films on plasma facing components. A particular effort on temperature control of the new metallic ITER-like wall (ILW) that is presently being installed in JET has been pursued with active laser infrared thermography. JET TF-FT also contributes to the operator strategy to comply with the safety agency requirements for T management. Recent results on two major topics purification of tritiated water and development of the ³He method for the determination of the T concentration in waste drums are presented. Finally, this paper also presents some activities in preparation of the ILW for the pre-characterisation of marker tiles and the refurbishment of diagnostics for deposition characterisation.     

有效的过程控制改善湿部稳定性

对纸机湿部化学系统进行管理就要对影响该系统的因素进行控制，文章通过列举实例讨论了对留着率和电荷的控制。     

X-ray microbeam transmission/fluorescence method for non-destructive characterization of tungsten coated carbon materials

Tungsten erosion, its subsequent transport and redeposition are of great interest, because a full tungsten divertor is foreseen to be used during the deuterium–tritium operational phase of ITER. The erosion of tungsten and carbon marker layers was extensively studied in the outer divertor of ASDEX Upgrade (AUG), and work is currently in progress to completely replace the existing JET CFC tiles with tungsten-coated tiles within the JET ITER-like wall project. The need for fast and non-destructive method which allows the quantitative determination of the thickness of a tungsten coating on a carbon material on large areas led us to evaluate a combined absorption/fluorescence X-ray (XRTF) technique. The method can provide fast analysis, high spatial resolution and a material selective detection of deposited layers and inclusions. It was applied on W coated fine grain graphite (FGG) tiles from AUG's divertor. It is proved that the method is able to provide information about the uniformity of the tungsten coating on a graphite or CFC substrate whilst the technique can be used to determine the thickness of the tungsten and other marker materials coatings. It represents a unique instrument for the post-mortem analysis of the coatings.