Regional forecasts of photovoltaic power generation according to different data availability scenarios: a study of four methods

The development of methods to forecast photovoltaic (PV) power generation regionally is of utmost importance to support the spread of such power systems in current power grids. The objective of this study is to propose and to evaluate methods to forecast regional PV power 1 day ahead of time and to compare their performances. Four forecast methods were regarded, of which two are new ones proposed in this study. Together, they characterize a set of forecast methods that can be applied in different scenarios regarding availability of data and infrastructure to make the forecasts. The forecast methods were based on the use of support vector regression and weather prediction data. Evaluations were performed for 1 year of hourly forecasts using data of 273 PV systems installed in two adjacent regions in Japan, Kanto, and Chubu. The results show the importance of selecting the proper forecast method regarding the region characteristics. For Chubu, the region with a variety of weather conditions, the forecast methods based on single systems' forecasts and the one based on stratified sampling provided the best results. In this case, the best annual normalized root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) were 0.25 and 0.15 kWh/kWh_avg, respectively. For Kanto, with homogeneous weather conditions, the four methods performed similarly. In this case, the lowest annual forecast errors were 0.33 kWh/kWh_avg for the normalized RMSE and 0.202 kWh/kWh_avg for the normalized MAE. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

研究开发适应于国际标准的SPM针尖特性表征结构

标准化是当前扫描探针显微镜领域(SPM)的一项重要工作.国际标准化组织ISO自2004年起已经将SPM标准化列入其工作框架之内,并建立了相关的分委员会、技术委员会和工作小组.本文介绍了国际上当前有关SPM标准化方面努力和主要趋势:SPM术语的标准化被认为是SPM标准化工作范围内首先需要考虑的问题,其相关标准即将发表;SPM数据管理及处理的标准化则是另一项正在进行的有利于数据访问、处理和共享的重要工作.可溯源计量型原子力显微镜(AFM)的发展解决了纳米尺度的度量问题,能够通过对标准物质进行定量分析与定标实现量值的传递.当前发展能够被计量型AFM鉴定的参考物质以及标准化仪器校正过程是实现SPM标准化之前的当务之急.为了促进SPM领域ISO标准的实现,一种新的针尖特性表征结构(tip characterizer)已经被开发出来.这种tip characterizer由超晶格组装技术实现,能够描述针尖的形状并且同时进行侧向尺度的校正.本文探讨了这种新型tip characterizer的性能.这种tip characterizer不易损坏针尖,具有很好的重复性,并能帮助实验观察分析针尖形状和结构几何特性之间的关系.     

Selective vapor phase hydroformylation of ethylene over cluster-derived cobalt catalyst

Vapor phase hydroformylation of ethylene was studied with silica-supported metal catalysts. A cobalt metal catalyst derived from Co₂(CO)₈ gave propanal and its derivatives in as high selectivity of about 36% as Rh/SiO₂ catalyst under the reaction conditions of 1.1 MPa of a gas-mixture of ArCOC₂H₄H₂ = 1333 at 423–503 K. On the other hand, conventional cobalt catalysts derived from cobalt nitrate, chloride, or acetate, and other noble metal catalysts (Pd/SiO₂ and Ir/SiO₂) produced mainly ethane.     

建筑机械偏心荷载对开挖过程中沟槽稳定性的影响研究

通过在离心场中模拟沟槽开挖过程的模型试验,讨论挖掘机等建筑机械在开挖市政管线的沟槽过程中产生的偏心荷载对沟槽稳定性的影响。试验结果表明,沟槽的破坏形态与挖掘机中心荷载作用情况下相同。据此,可利用在中心荷载作用下求得的开挖深度极限分析上限解简化式,计算建筑机械偏心荷载作用下的沟槽开挖深度,并且所得计算结果与试验结果基本吻合。结果表明:偏心距对开挖深度的影响程度因挖掘机接触压力不同而不同。挖掘机接触压力越大,偏心距对开挖深度的影响也越大。     

Determination of seventeen pesticide residues in agricultural products by LC/MS

Residues of 17 pesticides in agricultural products were determined by LC/MS with an atmospheric pressure chemical ionization (APCI) interface in both positive and negative ion modes. Pesticides were extracted with acetonitrile, and the extracts were cleaned-up with a primary and secondary amine (PSA) mini-column eluted with acetone-hexane (1:1). Rice, orange and potato were spiked with the 17 pesticides at 0.1 microgram/g and analyzed by the proposed method. The average recoveries of these pesticides usually ranged from 70 to 98% and the relative standard deviations were usually around 10%. These results suggested that LC/MS with APCI could be used to determine the residue levels of the 17 pesticides in these crops.     

Determination of free fatty acids in milk and dairy products by reversed-phase HPLC with fluorescence detection

A highly sensitive HPLC with fluorescence detection was developed for the determination of free fatty acids (FFAs) in milk and dairy products. For this purpose, the FFAs were extracted from small amounts of milk (1.0 mL), cheese (0.5 g) and butter (0.5 g) using Sep-Pak cartridge columns, and then derivatized to 9-anthrylmethyl esters with 9-anthryldiazomethane (ADAM). Good separations of the ADAM derivatives of 16 FFAs (C4-C18) that exist in milk, cheese and butter, which permitted quantitative estimation of their individual FFAs, were achieved by HPLC on a C18 column (Cadenza CD-C18, 150 x 3 mm i.d.) using gradient elution with methanol and water. The acid values calculated from the contents of individual FFAs were in good agreement with those obtained by the conventional titration method. These results demonstrate that the present HPLC method is simple, sensitive and precise, and could be utilized widely for determination of the FFAs in milk and dairy products.     

Infrared sea surface emissivity including multiple reflection effect for isotropic Gaussian slope distribution model

A method is described for incorporating surface-emitted surface-reflected (SESR) radiation into the calculation of infrared sea surface emissivity. Firstly, the direct emissivity is obtained by ignoring SESR emission. Next, the first order SESR emissivity is obtained by using the direct emission as a radiation source. Finally, the ith order SESR emissivity is iteratively obtained by using the i − 1st order SESR emission.Computational results are in good agreement with a Monte Carlo calculation, where the SESR emissivity increases from an emission angle of 50° showing a maximum value of about 0.03 at an emission angle of 80°. The direct emissivity is smaller than the measured emissivity by 0.02∼0.03 around a wavelength of 10 μm at an emission angle of 73.5°. By incorporating the SESR emission into the emissivity model, the discrepancy between the computed and the measured emissivity is significantly reduced.The advantage of the present method over the previous works is that we need not to specify a cutoff angle to differentiate the radiation from the sea and that from the sky for calculating SESR emission. Instead of using a cutoff angle, the probability that radiation originates from the sea is derived from the probability distribution function of sea surface slope. As a result, the uncertainty in the computation of sea surface emissivity attributed to the uncertainty in cutoff angle could be effectively suppressed.     

The measurement of hydrogen activities in molten copper using an oxide protonic conductor

We have developed a hydrogen sensor for in situ measurements of hydrogen activities in molten copper. The sensor consists of a concentration cell utilizing a proton conductor, CaZr_0.9In_0.1O_3-δ, as the solid electrolyte. The electromotive force (emf) of the cell was generated by both hydrogen and oxygen activity gradients across the cell in a high-temperature region simulating the fire refining processes of copper. However, accurate hydrogen activity in molten copper could be evaluated from the emf if oxygen activity in molten copper was determined simultaneously by another concentration cell and if the hydrogen and the oxygen activities at the reference electrode were known. The performance of the sensor was studied under various conditions. The observed good response and reliability of the sensor show that it should be a powerful tool for improvement of the fire refining process of the molten copper. Theoretical treatment of the calculation of the emf of the concentration cells using a mixed ionic conductor, i.e., protonic and oxide ionic conductor, as solid electrolytes is also discussed briefly.     

Microstructure and anodic polarization behavior of experimental Ag–18Cu–15Pd–12Au alloy in aqueous sulfide solution

The anodic corrosion behavior of an experimental Ag–15Pd–18Cu–12Au alloy in 0.1% Na₂S solution in relation to its microstructure was investigated using potentiodynamic and potentiostatic polarization techniques with analyses of corrosion products by X-ray diffractometry, Auger electron spectroscopy, and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. The role of Pd in improvement of the corrosion resistance was also investigated. In the potential/current density curve, three distinct current peaks, at –520 mV (peak I), –425 mV (peak II) and –175 mV (peak III), were observed. The Ag-rich ₂ matrix with coarse Cu and Pd-rich lamellae was the most corrosion-susceptible region, and this region was preferentially corroded at peak I with the formation of granular deposits of Ag₂S. A small amount of Ag–Cu mixed sulfide deposited on the Cu and Pd-rich coarse particles and dissolution of Ag as AgO^– might have occurred in parallel with Ag₂S formation at peak II. Enrichment of Pd on the alloy surface occurred at peak III due to preferential dissolution of Ag and Cu. A high level of corrosion resistance was attained with the formation of a thin Pd-rich sulfide film, which enhanced the passivity of the alloy in an alkaline sulfide solution. It was found that passivity is an important phenomenon not only for base metal alloys but also for noble metal alloys to maintain high levels of resistance to corrosion and tarnishing in sulfide environments.