Unreliable numbers: error and harm induced by bad design can be reduced by better design

Number entry is a ubiquitous activity and is often performed in safety- and mission-critical procedures, such as healthcare, science, finance, aviation and in many other areas. We show that Monte Carlo methods can quickly and easily compare the reliability of different number entry systems. A surprising finding is that many common, widely used systems are defective, and induce unnecessary human error. We show that Monte Carlo methods enable designers to explore the implications of normal and unexpected operator behaviour, and to design systems to be more resilient to use error. We demonstrate novel designs with improved resilience, implying that the common problems identified and the errors they induce are avoidable.     

Structure–phase state of the surface layers in rails subjected to differential hardening

A layer-by-layer analysis of the structures, the phase compositions, and the defect substructures of differentially hardened rails has been carried by optical and transmission electron microscopy. It is found that the material volume of the rail head fillet is cooled faster than the volume located along the central axis.     

Robust predictive extended state observer for a class of nonlinear systems with time-varying input delay

ABSTRACT

This paper deals with asymptotic stabilisation of a class of nonlinear input-delayed systems via dynamic output feedback in the presence of disturbances. The proposed strategy has the structure of an observer-based control law, in which the observer estimates and predicts both the plant state and the external disturbance. A nominal delay value is assumed to be known and stability conditions in terms of linear matrix inequalities are derived for fast-varying delay uncertainties. Asymptotic stability is achieved if the disturbance or the time delay is constant. The controller design problem is also addressed and a numerical example with an unstable system is provided to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed strategy.     

Analysis of a two-dimensional symmetric problem on extension of an Al-polyimide-Cu layered structure with a model crack

To increase the efficiency of designing systems intended for monitoring surface cracks in aluminum structures during their working life, we have analyzed a two-dimensional symmetric problem on uniaxial extension of an Al-polyimide-Cu layered structure with ideal adhesion between layers and a model crack in the aluminum base. The problem has been first solved for a sample with the crack modeled by a zero-thickness notch using the ANSYS engineering simulation program package. It is shown that this setting of the problem can lead to inadequate results as manifested, in particular, by significantly overstated mechanical stresses in aluminum in the region of crack emergence on the surface. In order to eliminate this difficulty, we propose to use the structure with a model defect in the form of a notch of nonzero thickness in the initial unstressed state of the structure. Recommendations for selecting the thickness of a notch used in the model structure are given.