Correlated synthetic time series generation for energy system simulations using Fourier and ARMA signal processing

As the contribution of renewable energy grows in electricity markets, the complexity of the energy mix required to meet demand grows, likewise the need for robust simulation techniques. While decades of wind, solar, and demand profiles can sometimes be obtained, this is too few samples to provide a statistically meaningful analysis of a system with baseload, peaker, and renewable generation. To demonstrate the viability of an energy mix, many thousands of samples are needed. Synthetic time series generation presents itself as a suitable methodology to meet this need. For a synthetic time series to be statistically viable, several conditions must be met. The series generator must produce independent, identically distributed samples, each having the same fundamental properties as the original signal without duplicating it exactly. One approach for such a generator is training a surrogate model using Fourier series decomposition for seasonal patterns and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models to describe time-correlated statistical noise about the seasonal patterns. When combined, the Fourier plus ARMA (FARMA) model has been shown to provide an infinite set of independent, identically distributed sample time series with the same statistical properties as the original data [1]. When considering an energy mix with renewable electricity production, several time series of energy, grid, and weather measurements are needed for each synthetic year modeled to statistically comprehend the efficiency of any given energy mix. This includes measurements of solar exposure, air temperature, wind velocity, and electricity demand. These cannot be considered independent series in a given synthetic year; for example, in summer months demand may be higher when solar exposure and air temperature are high and wind velocity is low. To capture and reproduce the correlations that might exist in the measured histories, the ARMA can further be extended as a Vector ARMA (VARMA). In the VARMA algorithm, covariance in statistical noise is captured both within a history as part of the autoregressive moving average and with respect to the other variables in the time series. In this work, the implementation of the Fourier VARMA in the RAVEN uncertainty quantification and risk analysis software framework [2] is presented, along with examples of correlated synthetic history generation. Finally, methods to extend synthetic signals to multiyear samples are presented and discussed.     

Low-Cost Membranen für die Vanadium-Redox-Flow-Batterie

Reinforced proton exchange membranes (gPEM) are fabricated by coating a polymer suspension onto a polymer mesh. The polymer suspension contains solved poly(ether sulfone) (PES) and dispersed poly(styrene). The poly(styrene) is cross linked, sulfonylated and sulfonated. By using a poly(ether ether ketone) (PEEK) mesh with a thickness of 128 µm higher proton conductivities were measured compared to Selemion CMVN and Nafion N115 at 25 °C. An energy efficiency of 68.6 % was measured with Nafion N115, an energy efficiency of 53.1 % with CMVN and an energy efficiency of 69.4 % with a fabricated reinforced membrane at a current density of 100 mA cm⁻² in a vanadium redox flow cell.     

Characterization of expanded polystyrene and its composites by supercritical carbon dioxide foaming approach

Journal of Porous Materials - Supercritical carbon dioxide (scCO2) has been used as a physical blowing agent to produce polymer expanded materials. Firstly, a statistic study was performed to...     

Malignant potential, major histocompatibility complex antigen expression, and genomic imprinting of rat trophoblast cell lines

Invasive growth, variation in major histocompatibility complex antigen expression, and genomic imprinting are important properties of both trophoblast cells and malignant tumors. This study, undertaken to address these three issues, used cultured trophoblast cell lines derived from Day 11/12 rat placentas of all mating combinations of the DA and WF inbred strains. In addition, genomic imprinting was also examined in intact rat placentas from Days 11-19. There was no correlation in trophoblast cells between class I antigen expression, DNA content, and cell ploidy on the one hand and oncogenic potential on the other hand. The constitutive suppression of class II antigens in the trophoblast cells could not be abrogated by treatment with interferon-gamma, whereas such treatment always maximally induced class I antigen expression regardless of the initial resting levels. The trophoblast cells at Day 11/12 expressed both maternal and paternal class I antigens, and studies in whole placental tissues showed that the imprinting of the maternal class I antigens was manifested by a decreased level of expression rather than an absence of expression. Thus, genomic imprinting in the rat placenta is a quantitative, rather than an all-or-none, phenomenon.     

Interleukin-1 (IL-1) production in a mouse tissue chamber model of inflammation. I. Development and initial characterisation of the model

A simple and reliable animal model to quantify interleukin-1 (IL-1) production at a site of inflammation has been developed and characterised. This model involves the subcutaneous implantation of sterile Teflon chambers (30 mm x 10 mm diameter) into the backs of mice. After 14 days, a straw coloured transudate fluid was present in the lumen of the implanted chamber which was withdrawn for the determination of baseline measurements of various inflammatory parameters. A localised chronic inflammatory response was then induced in the chambers by injection of 1% zymosan or Bordetella pertussis vaccine (BPV) (in presensitised animals). The local inflammatory reaction in the chamber, over a 30 day time course, was characterised by leucocyte infiltration, and marked increases in protein, prostaglandin E2, IL-1 and IL-6 concentrations in the chamber fluid. A rapid increase in plasma concentrations of the acute-phase reactant serum amyloid P (SAP) also occurred. This model allows repeated samples to be obtained from the same animal for the assessment of inflammatory parameters and may be useful for investigating the mechanisms controlling the production of IL-1 during the inflammatory response in vivo.