Forecasting change using an interregional homogeneity index

This study of employment change in the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, SMSA applies an index of interregional homogeneity to determine the extent to which the industrial structure of the region over a nine-year period has been modifiedvis-a-vis that of the rest of the nation. Indices derived from the analysis are synthesized with a modified employment shift model to forecast expected employment for twenty-two industries in the ABE, SMSA for the year 1975. It is demonstrated that an interregional homogeneity index when combined with a shift and share model can be adapted to systematically forecast regional change. The concept employed is to first stratify the allocation of change to a sub-region in total and then to each industry.This study was made possible in part by a research grant from Waynesburg College.     

ASSESSING AND MANAGING THE RISKS OF PATHOGEN TRANSFER FROM LIVESTOCK MANURES INTO THE FOOD CHAIN

A review was undertaken of (a) the levels and prevalence of Salmonella spp., Campylobacter spp., Listeria monocytogenes, Escherichia coli 0157. Cryptosporidium parvum and Giardia intestinalis in livestock manure, and (b) factors which affect their survival during storage and following land application. Pathogens are commonly present in livestock manures and can survive in soil for several months or years after spreading or excretion onto land. Temperature was identified as being the most important factor influencing pathogen survival, although pH, UV light and drying were also important. Various practical measures to minimise the risk of pathogen transfer into the food chain were identified, including treatment, extended storage and no/harvest periods following land spreading. Guidelines are being developed on managing farm manures to minimise the risks of microbiological contamination of ready-to-eat crops.     

Detection of enteric viruses, Giardia and Cryptosporidium in two different types of drinking water treatment facilities

In this study, two types of drinking water treatment facilities (two conventional drinking water treatment plants (DWTPs) and two compact units (Cus)) were compared referring to their production capacity. Water samples were collected from three main points: (a) different water treatment steps (b) washings of sand filters and (c) distribution system at different distances from the water treatment plants. Both viruses and protozoa were concentrated from each water sample by adsorption and accumulation on the same nitrocellulose membrane filters (0.45 microm pore size). Enteroviruses were detected by plaque infectivity assay in BGM cells and HAV, HEV and Norovirus were detected by RT-PCR. Giardia and Cryptosporidium were detected by conventional staining methods and PCR. The results revealed that enterovirus load at the intake ranged between 10-15 PFU/L for the two compact units and between 4.5 and 75 PFU/L for the two conventional DWTPs. The virus load in distribution system of the first type DWTPs at 1 km from the plant was the same as that of the intake. Viruses in the other type of treatment plants CUs at 1, 5 and 7 km, were much reduced. Investigation of raw water sediments of the two DWTPs showed enterovirus counts between 12 and 17.5 PFU/L. Virus count was reduced in sand of filters after washing. Giardia cysts were equally detected by microscopy and PCR in only intake samples of EL-Hawamdia CU (33.3%) and Meet Fares DWTP (50%). Cryptosporidium oocysts were equally detected by microscopy and PCR in intake samples of Abo EL-Nomros CU (100%), EL-Hawamdia CU (66.7%) and Fowa DWTP (50%). At Meet Fares DWTP three positive intake samples for Cryptosporidium were detected by PCR, compared with only two positive samples by microscopy. Giardia cysts and Cryptosporidium oocysts were detected in raw water sediment and sand of filters before washing. Only one sample from Meet Fares DWTP sand of filters after washing was positive for both Giardia and Cryptosporidium. It can be concluded that the poor microbial quality of the water may be due to improper operational skills and management of the various water treatment plants (especially at the two high capacity treatment plants).     

Limit analysis of reinforced concrete cylindrical shell roofs

Two approximate yield criteria are proposed for reinforced concrete cylindrical shell element. Three lower bound solutions are developed for cylindrical shell roofs with free longitudinal edges. Two shells with different geometric parameters are analysed. Elastic analysis is also done at working load. Graphs are presented to show the variation of stress resultants at critical sections.     

Role of phosphorus in eutrophication and diffuse source control

Many lakes and some streams and estuaries are showing signs of excessive fertilization due to the input of aquatic plant nutrients from man-associated sources. The key element often found limiting aquatic plant populations is phosphorus. The attempt to control phosphorus input to natural waters as the overall approach for controlling excessive fertilization is technically sound and economically feasible for many natural waters. However, a much better understanding of the relationship between the phosphorus input to a lake and the excessive growths of aquatic plants within the lake must be developed. This development will require a combined biological and chemical approach toward assessing the role of phosphorus in eutrophication for a specific water body. The biological approach will use tissue content, enzymatic and kinetic uptake analysis of phosphorus limitations as well as bioassays of phosphorus availability in order to determine the limiting nutrient for a body of water. The chemical aaproach will utilize amounts of each of the forms of phosphorus present in the lake and the rates of interchange of phosphorus between these various forms.There will be some waters where control of phosphorus from treatment of domestic waste water input and removal of phosphorus from detergents will not result in significant improvement in water quality. This is because these waters derive their phosphorus from diffuse sources, such as urban and rural stormwater drainage, the atmosphere, and ground waters. In these instances, it may be necessary to initiate in-lake control of phosphorus by the addition of alum or iron salts.     

Use of driven piles in rammed holes during construction in soils prone to slump-type settlement

Conclusions The experiment with the use of piles cast in rammed holes in lieu of continuous foundations placed on a bed compacted by tamping produced positive results and will be expanded upon further, since the strength properties of the materials in the foundations and the soils in the foundation beds can be more fully utilized, the reliability of the structure increased, the volume of earthwork reduced, labor and material outlays diminished, and the rate of construction and the level of the industrial nature of the work increased.State Institute for the Projection of the Greenhouse Industry. Translated from Osnovaniya, Fundamenty i Mekhanika Gruntov, No. 2, p. 10, March–April, 1977.     

Observations on the changes in nitrate concentrations along streams in seven upland moorland catchments in Northeast Scotland

River water has been sampled under baseflow conditions in both summer and winter at c. 250-m intervals along the length of each of seven rivers in northeast Scotland, and the nitrate contents have been determined. The resultant data have been examined in the context of the nitrogen saturation hypothesis. Capacity of the catchment soils to retain nitrate was generally minimal in winter. Although biological uptake of nitrate was evident in summer, in the upper part of each catchment substantial nitrate leaching still occurred. The phenomenon was most marked in water draining from hill peats, except where these were conspicuously waterlogged. The results are discussed in the context of possible nitrogen saturation effects on upper catchment slopes.     

Oxygen consumption and activity of the white sucker (Catostomus commersoni), in lethal and nonlethal levels of the organochlorine insecticide, methoxychlor

The survival, oxygen consumption and spontaneous activity of suckers were determined at 15°C in water containing different concentrations of methoxychlor in ethanol, ethanol, and no added substances. A dynamic bioassay was used to estimate the 96 h LC50, which was found to be 0·0345 ppm. Routine oxygen consumption was determined in a continuous-flow respirometer, and the activity was recorded in separate experiments by measuring the water disturbance using silver wire electrodes.After 24 h fish exposed to untreated, ethanol-treated and 0.01 ppm methoxychlor-treated water had oxygen uptake rates which were relatively constant and near standard levels. At 0.10 ppm methoxychlor (lethal to all fish within 85 h), oxygen consumption rates were 2–3.5 × as high as those of control fish. Activity also greatly increased. The fish lost their balance along with the coordination between opercular and locomotor movements. Suckers that died in 0.04 ppm methoxychlor showed oxygen uptake rates and poisoning symptoms similar to 0.10 ppm treated fish, while those that survived this treatment had rates similar to control fish. The increase in ventilation which accompanies this hyperactivity may result in increased uptake of insecticide and thereby explain the irreversible nature of the response.