基于神经网络和相似搜索技术的电力价格钉预测方法

电力市场中普遍存在“价格钉”,其特殊性给电价预测带来困难。通过对其特征和影响因素的分析,提出了一种基于神经网络和相似搜索技术的价格钉预测方法。首先,采用BP神经网络建立价格钉识别模型,对未来某一交易时段市场清算电价可能出现的区间进行预测,并提供相应的置信度;其次,对判别为价格钉的时段采用相似搜索技术进行二次预测。采用澳大利亚昆士兰州电力市场2004年至2005年全年的电价数据进行训练和预测分析,结果验证了该方法的有效性。     

Supervisory control using augmented languages in discrete event systems

This paper introduces the concept of an augmented (super) language of a specified language and studies its application to finite state supervisory control. First, we investigate several properties of an augmented language, especially related to controllability of the specified language. We propose an algorithm for the computation of a controllable sublanguage for which a finite state supervisor exists, using an augmented language, and show a sufficient condition for the controllable sublanguage to be supremal. It is shown, however, that such a finite state supervisor is sometimes blocking. Moreover, we discuss the relationship between the Wonham-Ramadge algorithm and our proposed one.     

Thermoelectric properties of porous SiC/C composites

We developed a porous SiC/C composite by oxidizing a SiC/C composite made from a mixed powder of wood charcoal and SiO₂ (32–45 μm) by pulse current sintering at 1600 and 1800 °C under a N₂ atmosphere. The microstructures of the porous SiC/C composites with oxidation and the SiC/C composites without oxidation were analyzed by Raman spectroscopy and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Raman spectra revealed the disappearance of excess carbon and the presence of β-SiC. The porous microstructure was monitored by SEM observation as a function of the heat treatment temperature. The thermoelectric properties of porous SiC/C composites with oxidation and SiC/C composites without oxidation were investigated by measuring the Seebeck coefficient, the electrical conductivity and thermal conductivity. The Seebeck coefficient of all samples revealed n-type conduction, and the absolute value of the Seebeck coefficient for the porous SiC/C samples with oxidation was much larger than that for the SiC/C samples without oxidation. For the electrical conductivity the reverse is true. Only the thermal conductivity of the SiC/C sample heated to 1800 °C without oxidation was high initially and stayed rather high. In general, the thermoelectric properties improved at higher measurement temperatures indicating their suitability for high-temperature thermoelectric conversion. A maximum figure of merit of 2.01×10⁻⁵ K⁻¹ was obtained at 700 °C in porous SiC/C samples sintered at 1800 °C with oxidation.     

A new computational method of a moment-independent uncertainty importance measure

For a risk assessment model, the uncertainty in input parameters is propagated through the model and leads to the uncertainty in the model output. The study of how the uncertainty in the output of a model can be apportioned to the uncertainty in the model inputs is the job of sensitivity analysis. Saltelli [Sensitivity analysis for importance assessment. Risk Analysis 2002;22(3):579-90] pointed out that a good sensitivity indicator should be global, quantitative and model free. Borgonovo [A new uncertainty importance measure. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 2007;92(6):771-84] further extended these three requirements by adding the fourth feature, moment-independence, and proposed a new sensitivity measure, δ_i. It evaluates the influence of the input uncertainty on the entire output distribution without reference to any specific moment of the model output. In this paper, a new computational method of δ_i is proposed. It is conceptually simple and easier to implement. The feasibility of this new method is proved by applying it to two examples.     

Study on underground thermal characteristics by using digital national land information, and its application for energy utilization

This paper describes a method for evaluating characteristics of underground thermal properties and groundwater, whose evaluation is essential for designing systems of underground thermal energy utilization. First, the systems using underground thermal energy are classified into two categories: borehole system with indirect heat exchange, and aquifer system with direct use of underground water. These systems are also divided into thermal storage systems and heat source/sink systems. Second, the characteristics of the underground in Japan are analyzed by using a geographical information system (GIS) and hydrogeological information. Regulations on environmental protection, such as those relating to national parks for instance, and the distribution of thermal energy demand eliminate 77% of Japan from consideration for underground thermal energy utilization. Areas limited to borehole thermal energy utilization account for 17% of areas where underground thermal energy can be used, with the remaining 74% suitable for both boreholes and aquifers. Finally, we estimate the thickness of aquifer and groundwater velocity in Sapporo. We find that most parts of Sapporo are suitable for aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES).     

Computational design of solar reflection and far-infrared transmission films for a variable emittance device

A smart radiation device (SRD) that is a variable emittance radiator has been studied as a method of thermal control for spacecraft. The SRD consists of manganese oxide with a perovskite-type structure, and the total hemispherical emittance of the SRD changes considerably depending on temperature. Here we propose an optimal method of designing multilayer films for the SRD by using agenetic algorithm. The multilayer films reflect solar radiation and transmit far-infrared radiation to maintain variation of the infrared optical properties of the SRD.     

Effect of antithyroid agents 6-propyl-2-thiouracil and 1-mehtyl-2-mercaptoimidazole on human thyroid iodine peroxidase

The mechanism of inhibition of human thyroid iodide peroxidase (TPO) by 6-propyl-2-thiouracil (PTU) and 1-methyl-2-mercaptoimidazole (MMI) used in the therapy of hyperthyroid patients was studied in vitro. The inhibition of TPO by MMI was not restored either by dialysis or by dilution, but the inhibition by PTU was restored by both treatments. PTU interacted directly with the product of TPO action (oxidized iodide) in the reaction mixture without significantly affecting TPO activity. MMI interacted directly with TPO and inhibited enzyme activity, rather than interacting with the product (oxidized iodide). The inhibition was irreversible with MMI, but reversible with PTU. The concentrations of PTU and MMI producing 50% inhibition of TPO were 2 x 10-6m and 8 x 10-7m, respectively, 2-Mercaptoimidazole inhibited TPO reversibly but 1-methylimidazole and imidazole did not. Both the methyl and mercaptoresidues in MMI moiety are thought to be essential to its irreversible inhibition of TPO. The in vivo effect of MMI and PTU on TPO activity was also studied. TPO activities in the thyroid homogenate of rats to which MMI (2 mg per rat) or PTU (10 mg per rat) had been administered intraperitoneally were determined before and after dialysis against buffer. TPO activity in the PTU treated thyroid homogenate was significantly lower than that in the control before dialysis, but the activity was restored to the control value after dialysis. On the contrary, TPO activity in the MMI treated thyroid homogenate was significantly lower than that in the control and was not affected by dialysis. These data may explain why MMI is a more potent inhibitor of iodination than PTU and may fit the clinical results observed when hyperthyroid patients are treated with these agents.     

Feature extraction of finger-vein patterns based on repeated line tracking and its application to personal identification

We propose a method of personal identification based on finger-vein patterns. An image of a finger captured under infrared light contains not only the vein pattern but also irregular shading produced by the various thicknesses of the finger bones and muscles. The proposed method extracts the finger-vein pattern from the unclear image by using line tracking that starts from various positions. Experimental results show that it achieves robust pattern extraction, and the equal error rate was 0.145% in personal identification.Received: 27 October 2003, Accepted: 25 February 2004, Published online: 21 July 2004